Recently, the whole countryHogsThe average price has been for 9 consecutive trading days**, and the pig price in some areas has even rushed to a high of 18 yuan kg. This series of rallies has achieved what I did a few months ago, but it should be noted that the ** grid at this stage is not stable, and there may be two more deep pits in the future. This article will analyze the causes of pig prices** and what may happen next.
The main reason for the current pig price is the fundamental change in the contradiction between supply and demand. The first is that the number of fertile sows will decrease from the beginning of 2023, resulting in:HogsTapering. And in terms of consumption,Chinese New YearIt is the last peak period of the year, and the demand for pork has increased, which has promoted the rebound. I have discussed this in detail many times in my live broadcasts and articles, and this analysis has gradually been verified.
However, although the contradiction between supply and demand has gradually improved, the overall space is still limited. Next, we need to be wary of two possible pits.
Recently,Piglets** The increase is more intense than the pig price. According to Mysteel's survey data, as of January 29, 7 kilogramsPigletsThe mainstream market price is 350-450 yuan, and some are even close to 500 yuan. PigletsThere are certain reasons, on the one hand, as the production capacity of fertile sows falls back to normal levels, people's expectations for the future will pick up; On the other hand, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places are seriously affected by the epidemic and need to purchase high-quality products from the southPiglets, resulting in *** plus the end of the year is approaching,PigletsTrading time is limited, urging ** to recover further.
At the moment,PigletsIt's still acceptable, but if it continues, farmers need to be vigilant. Rational judgment should not be blindly purchased**Piglets。First of all, the current epidemic situation is still complicated, and outsourcing is outsourcedPigletsThere is a greater risk; Secondly, the space for pig prices to recover in 2024 is limited, and the specific rebound to which range depends on the operation of the national group farm. Judging by the data for 2023,PigletsThe business situation is indeed better than that of fat pigs, many morePigletsThe farm was profitable in the first half of the year. Therefore, we should recognize that whenPiglets**When it is significantly reduced, the purchase of fattening pigs does not necessarily mean a loss. But whenPigletsWhen it's too high, it's easy to fall into the trap. Hence the impactPigletsThe most important factor is "expectations and sentiment", not the contradiction between supply and demand.
Chinese New YearAfter that, pork consumption declined rapidly, and pig prices often appeared. This year is no exception, nationwideHogs** Overall still exceeds demand, while the peak period for stockpiling and banquets will also end this week, which will put downward pressure on pig prices. Therefore, farmers should not chase too much, but stabilize cash flow and ensure a good year, so that next year's production can be better developed.
Judging from the data on the number of fertile sows in the country, as of December 2023, the number of fertile sows in China has dropped to 41.42 million. Judging from the latest comparison of supply and demand, China's slaughter growth in 2023 will be higher than consumption, with a difference of nearly 7 percentage points. This shows that withHogsCompared with production capacity, it is more difficult for the national consumption of pork to growHogs**Has the ability to increase significantly in a short period of time.
It should be noted thatHogsProductivity doesn't just mean being able to breed sows, when there is a shortage of pigsTernarySows and fattening pigs can also act as productive forces, plus for the weakPigletscan increase some production capacity. As a result, the pig industry is making slower progress in de-capacity and faster in increasing production because everyone wants to make money as quickly as possible. But history has told us many times that there is no so-called "Jedi turnaround" in the pig industry, and only by stabilizing production, preventing epidemics, and reducing costs can we overcome cyclical changes.
I**,HogsThe scale of the industry has reached its peak, and in 2024, large pig enterprises may enter a round of "optimization" stage, some excellentFamily farmsIt will also gradually expand its scale and gradually achieve "small profits but quick turnover" from 2025. In short, the pig industry is full of difficulties, but the most difficult thing is to resist the intimidation of the first and low prices, firm footsteps, and steady development!