Minsheng ** shares *** Cui Yan recently conducted research on Wencan shares and released a research report "Series of comments 1: 2023 performance short-term pressure 2024 earnings momentum upward", this report gives a ** rating to Wencan shares, and the current stock price is 2485 yuan.
Wencan shares (603348).
Overview of the event. The company disclosed the 2023 annual performance forecast, and the company expects an operating income of 51 in 20230000000000000000000000000048%, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in 2023 will be 048~0.6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7138%~79.80%。It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2023 will be 031~0.4.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8210% to 8794%。
Short-term disruptions have put pressure on 2023Q4 performance, and 2024 is poised to start. According to the median value of the company's performance forecast, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 12 in a single quarter in 2023Q4800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -46%, +17%；The net profit attributable to the parent company was 00.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year turnaround, -768%；It is expected to achieve a non-net profit of -00.2 billion yuan. The company's revenue in 2023 will decline slightly, mainly due to the replacement of some customers' models in the first half of the year, resulting in lower than expected revenue from related products; The sequential decline in net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023Q4 is mainly due to the reversal of deferred tax assets of some factories, resulting in a year-on-year increase in income tax expenses, which is a short-term fluctuation, and looks forward to 2024 with the mass production and ramp-up of a number of integrated large-scale structural parts projects, and the performance is expected to improve.
Integrated die-casting has won multiple fixed points and continues to lead the industry. The company has been committed to the research and development of large-scale integrated body structural products, according to the company's announcement, the company has obtained three automotive customers a total of nine large-scale integrated structural parts fixed-point integration, and the project yield rate is more than 95%+, highlighting the recognition of the main engine factory for the company's integrated die-casting product development and design, technical quality, production guarantee capabilities, and is expected to seize more share. In 2022, the company's 9000t die-casting machine will complete the trial production and small batch delivery of large-scale integrated products designated by new power customers, which is the company's first trial production of half-piece rear floor on 6000t die-casting equipment in November 2021, and the company has made a breakthrough in the field of integrated castings again in less than half a year, fully demonstrating the company's first-mover advantage and rapid response ability in the field of large-scale integrated products. As of 2023H1, the company has 2 6000t die-casting machines, 1 7000t die-casting machine, 2 9000t die-casting machines, and a total of 26 die-casting machines of more than 4500t, all of which have been installed and put into use, and the new equipment further meets the company's current production capacity needs.
The increase in core customers is expected to drive performance improvement. As of December 26, 2023, the new M7 Dading of Wenjie has exceeded 120,000 units, and the number of M9 reservations has exceeded 540,000 units, and will be delivered in 2024Q1. At the same time, the ideal first high-voltage pure electric model MEGA will also be launched, the pre-sale within 2 hours of blind orders have exceeded 10,000, the company also participates in its core components, we believe that from 2024 onwards, the core customer model volume + new project production ramp-up will drive a significant rebound in capacity utilization, which is expected to bring considerable performance elasticity.
Investment suggestion: The company is a pioneer in integrated die-casting, and is expected to rise to become a lightweight leader in the electric intelligent transformation, and the gradual mass production of core customer projects from 2024 will drive high performance growth. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2023-2025 will be 515/76.5/95.200 million yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 058/4.17/5.9.7 billion yuan, EPS of 022/1.58/2.26 yuan. Corresponds to January 30, 2024 2668 yuan share ** price, PE 121 17 12 times respectively, maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the sales volume of raw materials *** core customers is less than expected; The project expansion is not as expected.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Guosheng Ding Yihao has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is 7683%, and its ** attributable net profit in 2023 is a profit of 4500 million, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 1562。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 5 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, ** 5 ratings; The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 4822。
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