Yang Song recently conducted research on Qianhong Pharmaceutical and released a research report "Deep Cultivation of Heparin Industry Chain, Fruitful Innovation and R&D", this report gives an overweight rating to Qianhong Pharmaceutical, and believes that its target price is 576 yuan, the current stock price is 488 yuan, the expected range is 1803%。
Qianhong Pharmaceutical (002550).
Summary of the report. Qianhong Pharmaceutical is a leading manufacturer of polysaccharide and protease drugs in the domestic biochemical pharmaceutical industry, and is also one of the few pharmaceutical manufacturers covering the whole heparin industry chain in China. The company's main products are two series of biochemical drugs: active enzymes and polysaccharides. Among them, the active enzyme varieties mainly include pancreatic kininogenase series, asparaginase series, and compound digestive enzyme capsules; Polysaccharide varieties mainly include heparin sodium and low molecular weight heparin series varieties.
Investment Essentials. Heparin exports are at a low level, and they may be expected to bottom out and reverse in the future.
China is the world's largest exporter of heparin APIs, and fluctuations in China's heparin API market will have a significant impact on the global heparin market. Heparin API exports** from June 1, 2021$580,000 kg fell back to 0$610,000 kilograms. We believe that the current export of heparin API is at a historical low, and it may be expected to bottom out and reverse in the future.
The whole industry chain of heparin is laid out, and the company's inventory is low.
The company and Muyuan Co., Ltd. jointly invested in the establishment of a joint venture company, Henan Qianmu, to lay out the whole heparin industry chain. In 2023H1, the company's overall inventory is 76.6 billion yuan, at the low level of peer companies. From the perspective of inventory structure, the absolute amount of the company's raw materials is 400 million yuan, which is lower than the absolute level of the same company.
The innovation and transformation have been fruitful, and the research and development of CDK9 inhibitors is leading.
The company's innovation and transformation have been fruitful, and in the research and development of new drugs, four pipelines under development have entered the clinical stage. The product under development, QHRD107 (for the indication of acute myeloid leukemia), is a new class of small molecule drugs of CDK9 kinase inhibitor first developed by the company, and several patients have been enrolled in phase II clinical trials. This product is expected to provide patients with a richer choice, and we believe that the company's pipeline may have good market potential.
Earnings** and valuations.
We expect the company's overall revenue from 2023 to 2025 to be 1965/21.66/24.9.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -1470%/10.21%/15.10%；The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 232/3.07/4.0 billion yuan, EPS were 018/0.24/0.31 yuan. Considering that the company is an excellent enterprise of heparin preparations and APIs, and the company's innovation and transformation have been fruitful, we are optimistic about the company's future development, covering it for the first time, giving 24 times PE in 2024 and a target price of 576 yuan shares, giving an "overweight" rating.
Risk Warning: The risk of the decline of product sales due to the centralized procurement policy of drugs, the risk of profit arising from the increase in investment in new drug research and development, the risk of tightening environmental protection policies on operation, the risk of product quality, the risk of increasing operating costs, and the subjective risk of calculation.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Ping An Ye Yin has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is 2678%, and its **2023 attributable net profit is 22.7 billion, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 288。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 3 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, ** 2 have rated and 1 have overweight ratings.
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