Economic Observer reporter Chen ShanOn February 19, domestic refined oil ushered in the fourth price adjustment window this year. In the afternoon of the same day, the official website released a message: "On February 19, domestic refined oil products will not be adjusted according to the mechanism. "Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have undergone three rounds of adjustments, namely "two rises and one fall", and this is the first price adjustment in 2024.
This round of price adjustment cycle coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, during which the international oil price shows a leading trend, but the corresponding increase does not reach the red line of 50 yuan ton price adjustment. According to the data, as of February 16, Brent*** was 83$47 barrel, compared with only **2 before the Spring Festival25%。
**The announcement pointed out that since the adjustment of domestic refined oil products on January 31, 2024, the oil price in the international market has been running, and according to the current domestic refined oil ** mechanism, the average ** of the first 10 working days on February 19 is less than 50 yuan per ton compared with the average ** of the 10 working days before January 31. According to Article 7 of the "Measures for the Administration of Petroleum **", the gasoline and diesel ** will not be adjusted, and the unadjusted amount will be included in the accumulation or offset of the next price adjustment.
Xu Na, an analyst of refined oil products at Zhuochuang Information, told the Economic Observer that in this pricing cycle, the European and American international markets as a whole showed a trend of falling first and then rising, the United States ** production rebounded, and the US dollar exchange rate ** made the initial rate of change of the cycle negative start at a low value, and the downward adjustment is expected to be strong. Subsequently, the situation in the Middle East deteriorated, market worries tightened, international oil prices, WTI rose for 7 consecutive trading days, and the rate of change turned from negative to positive. However, according to the monitoring model of Zhuochuang Information, on February 16**, the change rate of the 10th working day of the domestic reference ** of this round of price adjustment cycle was 036 percent, it is expected that gasoline and diesel will be raised by 15 yuan, and the range has not yet reached the adjustment red line of 50 yuan tons stipulated by the state.
On the whole, since the beginning of this year, the price of refined oil has shown "two rises, one fall and one stranding", after the ups and downs, the domestic gasoline and diesel ** per ton increased by 350 yuan and 340 yuan respectively compared with the end of last year, and the current domestic 92 gasoline is basically more than 77 liters, 95 petrol is higher than 8 liters.
From the perspective of the market outlook, Xu Na said that the market pays close attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East, and if the market remains cautious, it may run strongly. The data monitoring model of Zhuochuang Information shows that according to the current calculation, the recalculated rate of change is in the positive range, and the initial upward adjustment atmosphere of the cycle is strong, and the price adjustment window is 24 o'clock on March 4.
It is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustment is relatively large. Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that the international market after the Spring Festival holiday may show the characteristics of easy to rise and difficult to fall, OPEC+ production reduction is well implemented, and the instability of the situation in the Middle East is increasing unabated, and the first end is still showing a tightening pattern; In addition, some economic data in Asia has warmed, and global demand expectations are still under pressure but still have opportunities to improve, and Brent*** is expected to stabilize above $80 barrels.
At present, oil prices are mainly disturbed by geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic resonances. Zhongcai believes that the first end has entered the stage of voluntary production reduction by OPEC+ member countries, and it is expected that it will be tight in the first quarter of 2024, but the current production reduction effect is not good, and it is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the voluntary production reduction plan of subsequent member countries. On the demand side, the apparent demand consumption at home and abroad has increased, the pressure has decreased but is still poor, and the crack spread and the month-to-month difference fluctuate in a narrow range. At present, there has been no substantive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel, and the follow-up negotiation process needs to be continuously monitored. It is expected to perform in a wide range, waiting for the supply side to bring a strong drive.