In 1985, when the CIA assessed who would succeed Suharto in ruling Indonesia, a young army captain came into their sights.
He is a Javanese Muslim military officer with combat experience in East Timor and is highly regarded for his leadership skills. In addition, he comes from an ancient and respected family ......In 1983, he married Suharto's daughter, and his career was even more promising. In a now-declassified report, the CIA *** Suharto will eventually have his son-in-law, Prabowo, succeed him as Indonesia's leader and guardian of the family's wealth.
But in reality, Prabowo's road to becoming the top is much more tortuous, and it will take almost 40 years to go.
On February 14, local time, it was distributed in Indonesia 1More than 200 million eligible voters on more than 70,000 islands went to polling stations to vote for the presidents and vice-presidents, as well as representatives of parliaments at the national and local levels. Due to the complexity of the elections, the official results will not be announced until 20 March. But since the first direct election in 2004, Indonesia has relied on a quick vote count by pollsters to get results on election day.
Prabowo meets with supporters in Jakarta, Indonesia, Feb. 14. This article is illustrated by Visual China.
According to preliminary results, 72-year-old incumbent Defense Minister Prabowo received nearly 60 votes, defeating former Jakarta Governor Anies, who is supported by Muslim conservatives, and former Central Java Governor Ganjar, who is supported by Indonesia's largest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle.
This year marks the twentieth year of Indonesia's direct election system. The younger electorate and the widespread use of TikTok short ** platforms in election campaigns have given this election a different look. But in this election, in which young people have a lot of say, the eldest Prabowo has become the final winner from the "iron-fisted general" to the "cute old man".
Prabowo's ab side
At the Snayan Memorial Stadium in South Jakarta, blue paper flowers fell from the sky to announce Prabowo's victory. On stage**, Prabowo, dressed in a light blue plaid shirt, danced. The screams from the audience were louder.
And in motion, Prabowo swings his limbs awkwardly, looking like a malfunctioning robot. Throughout the campaign season, Prabowo was very prominently danced. On TikTok, this kind of ** is labeled as "gemoy" by young people and gets crazy. "gemoy" is Indonesian slang that can be understood as "萌萌da" in Chinese.
Not only is Prabowo's campaign using TikTok to attract young people, but the other two ** candidates are also often live-streamed on the platform.
In 2019, Twitter was the most important battleground for every candidate's supporter. Now, Twitter feels too old. Amalianda Saverani, a professor at the Department of Politics and ** at Gachamada University in Indonesia, told China News Weekly.
On Indonesia's most active short-form platform, Amarinda observed that candidates seemed to be discussing topics that didn't seem to be part of the election, such as giving advice to young voters on how to do well in school or how to find love. "Each candidate portrays himself as a father or a kind uncle. ”
Amarinda said she was worried. "TikTok platforms simplify democracy and draw voters' attention to interesting content, masking the complexities of real-world issues such as inequality, poverty, climate and environmental crises. ”
Along with the troubled history of the Prabowo family, there is also a troubled history.
Prabowo and his family's lineage can be traced back to the Sultan of Mataram, the last ruler of Java before the Dutch East India Company came under colonial rule. In modern times, the Prabowo family has always been the most deeply rooted tree in Indonesia. Prabowo's grandfather was a prominent figure in Indonesia's independence movement, and his father, an influential economist, spent ten years in exile abroad for his failed coup d'état against Soekarno.
Prabowo spent his childhood in Kuala Lumpur, London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Zurich, where he is said to have become fluent in several languages. It was not until 1967, when Suharto overthrew Sukarno, that Prabowo and his family returned to Indonesia. The father served as the Minister of Finance and Finance in the new **, and Prabowo began to emerge when he entered the army, which enjoyed a special status at that time.
Prabowo's military career has also been full of controversy and "black material", including accusations of ordering the killing of separatists in East Timor in the 70s and 80s of the last century, and kidnapping students in Indonesia in the late 90s of the last century. However, many of the allegations have not been substantiated because the relevant full investigation has not been substantively carried out.
In 1998, affected by the Asian financial crisis, Suharto suddenly **. Some reports state that Prabowo was plotting a coup d'état against his father-in-law at the time. In the same year, Prabowo was dismissed from the military by a military tribunal on suspicion of kidnapping anti-Suharto pro-democracy activists.
Prabowo refuses to take any responsibility for what was done back then. He has said that as a military man he simply obeys orders, and after the fall of the Suharto regime, "they have to find a scapegoat to take responsibility......”
After Suharto's 32-year ** and corrupt rule came to an end, Prabowo also entered a low point in his life. He ended his marriage to his wife and went into self-imposed exile to Jordan. His business-run brother, Hashim, is in prison for improper loans, but Prabowo insists it is a trumped-up charge.
It was also during this period that Prabowo came up with the idea of running for the first place.
In 2004, Prabowo unsuccessfully tried to nominate a candidate for the Professional Bloc Party. The party was seen as Suharto's electoral machine, and it was reshuffled to adapt to the new democratic era. In 2008, with the financial backing of his younger brother, Prabowo founded his own party, the Greater Indonesia Movement Party. The following year, the leader of Indonesia's Democratic Party of Struggle and former ** Megawati chose Prabowo as his deputy to run as a partner, but lost miserably to Susilo.
Prabowo was nominated for the first time in 2014. At the time, he was portrayed as a tough-guy nationalist who promised supporters a return to the "new order" of the Suharto era. In the 2019 year, he again allied himself with Islamic conservatives and became an impassioned Islamist. Just five years ago, during his election campaign, he pledged to protect religious minorities from Muslims.
Constantly changing his political image and political alliances to serve his ambitions was a distinguishing feature of Prabowo's political career. When the time comes to 2024, he is much less angry and has established the image of a chubby, endearing dancing grandfather. This time, he succeeded.
According to Indonesian pollster Indikator Politik, Prabowo won 58 votes. His two opponents, Anies and Ganjar, each scored 253 and 166 of the votes. Prabowo has been the favorite candidate for the past few months, but the landslide victory has exceeded the pollsters' expectations. Having crossed the 50 threshold needed to win a single election, Prabowo will no longer have to face the second-placed candidate in a runoff.
An exit poll shows that more than six out of ten Gen Z voters voted for Prabowo.
Amalianda pointed out to China Newsweek that Gen Z voters are voting for the first or second time this year. "Many people were not born when the reform era began in 1998, and they took for granted today's greater freedoms, which also influenced their views on politics. ”
Ben Brand, director of the Asia-Pacific programme at Chatham House, a British think tank, said that many voters were young and had no memory of the Suharto era and the events that ended Suharto's 32-year rule in 1998. But Brand also points out that forgiveness and forgetting are common choices in modern Indonesian society. "Historical issues are rarely discussed in the education system or in society as a whole, and only a handful of activists speak of Suharto's big deal with hundreds of thousands of leftists after he came to power with Western support.
In Brand's view, the enthusiasm of Indonesian voters for Prabowo reflects their belief that Prabowo will uphold Jokowi's positive economic tradition. Implicit is also the belief that even a strongman** can be constrained by Indonesia's democratic system. ”
"The Jokowi effect".
Many analysts see Indonesia 2024 as a referendum against Jokowi. After completing his maximum two-term term, Jokowi, who is still approaching 80 percent in support, will step down in October this year.
If you go back to the end of the first decade of the new century, Jokowi is just a little-known politician who serves as mayor of the small city of Solo in Central Java and manages a population of 500,000.
Juhanis Suleiman, an associate professor in the Department of International Relations at General Ahmadyani University in Indonesia, recalled that Jokowi spent a lot of time visiting residential areas and meeting and talking to ordinary people, which was previously unheard of. "People think he represents a new kind of Indonesian leader and welcomes feedback from ordinary Indonesians. He looks democratic. ”
In 2012, Jokowi, whose popularity grew, successfully ran for governor of Jakarta. During his short tenure, he launched a local metro project that had been delayed for more than 20 years.
Before 2014, Prabowo was one of Jokowi's main supporters, hoping to use Jokowi's popularity to boost his own campaign prospects. What Prabowo didn't expect was that Jokowi challenged for the position of ** in 2014. The emoted supporter spoke ill of Jokowi, portraying him not only as a puppet of foreign interests, but also questioning his religious beliefs.
Since the democratic transition in 1998, the elite of the Suharto era still dominates Indonesia's political landscape. For Indonesians, who are tired of corrupt politicians and entrenched nepotism, Jokowi, who comes from a civilian background, has a clean and pro-people image, and is resolute in politics, is refreshing. In 2014, Jokowi received 53 votes15, while Prabowo got 46 votes85％。In 2019, Prabowo challenged Jokowi again, and the gap between the two widened to more than 10 percentage points.
Although Jokowi did not achieve the economic growth targets he promised during his tenure, thanks to his prudent management, Indonesia has maintained an annual growth rate of 5 and has opened up significantly to foreign investment. Indonesia's infrastructure has been completely revamped, with the completion of Indonesia's first high-speed rail project and the construction of a large number of airports, ports and toll roads. In addition, Jokowi also encouraged the domestic processing of nickel ore into finished products with added value, pushing Indonesia to move up the global value chain.
In the areas most relevant to the general Indonesian, Jokowi has expanded the coverage of the universal health insurance scheme from 56 to 94 of the population, and food ** inflation has also shown a steady downward trend. In a 2023 survey, 73 percent of Indonesians were optimistic that they expect life to be better in five years.
Indonesia's constitution stipulates that ** can only be re-elected for two consecutive terms. But Jokowi has a lot of unfinished business, including his goal of making Indonesia a high-income economy by 2045 and a $34 billion capital relocation project to move the capital from Jakarta to Nussandara, East Kalimantan.
*As he enters the final two or three years of his term, Jokowi begins to look for a successor who can continue his long-term development agenda. Ganjar, who is also a member of the Democratic Party of Struggle and is known as the "Disciple of Jokowi," is a potential candidate. But Ganjar's relationship with Megawati, the leader of the Democratic Party of Struggle, ended up alienating Jokowi from his colleague, who is also from Central Java.
Megawati's relationship with Jokowi is not harmonious. Juhanes pointed out to China Newsweek that Megawati has been insultingly calling Jokowi a "party leader" who "wants him to be a servant of the party rather than an independent leader."
According to Indonesia**, Ganjar struck a deal with Megawati without consulting Jokowi. And Jokowi only learned about the ** nominee of the Democratic Party of Struggle on the day of the official announcement of the nomination. Juhanis said this was a "grave mistake" for face-conscious Javanese.
Prabowo, on the other hand, looks highly unlikely to be Jokowi's preferred successor, given the history of fierce rivalry between the two. After losing to Jokowi twice in the ** race, Prabowo refused to throw in the towel. He filed a complaint with the Constitutional Court against Jokowi's election fraud, but lost the case. What is surprising is that when Jokowi formed the new **, he handed an olive branch to this tough opponent and invited him to serve as defense minister in his cabinet.
In Indonesia's democratic era, alliances between old enemies and politicians jumping between parties were commonplace. Both Jokowi and his predecessor Susilo have created their own "big tent coalition" in parliament to weaken the opposition and strengthen their own power. When Jokowi was first elected in 2014, only 40 MPs supported him. After "successfully co-opting" Prabowo and other opposition parties in his second term, Jokowi's ruling coalition controlled more than eighty percent of the seats in parliament, allowing him to push through legislative reform with minimal opposition.
Since joining Jokowi**, Prabowo has played the role of a loyal subordinate. He has repeatedly declared that he has "learned a lot" from Jokowi. Around 2021, some Jokowi supporters even called for Jokowi to partner with Prabowo for the 2024 campaign. They believe that the two can unite this politically ** country.
After years of trial and error, Prabowo, who hit the ** post for the third time, began to imitate Jokowi's line. Dressed in casual clothes similar to Jokowi's, he showed a gentle, humble and approachable side, and promised to continue Jokowi's project.
In October 2023, Prabowo announced his deputy ** candidate, Jokowi's eldest son Gibran. While Jokowi did not publicly endorse Prabowo, he expressed support for his son's candidacy. Since January this year, Jokowi has repeatedly traveled to the highly competitive Central Java province to hand out cash and rice, had dinner with Prabowo at street stalls, and even appeared on the latter's campaign posters.
Indonesia's current Defense Minister Prabowo (left) and his running mate Jokowi's eldest son, the current mayor of Solo, Giblan.
The analysis pointed out that Jokowi has a large number of loyal volunteers, most of whom do not identify with a particular party, and will only choose their preferred candidate if Jokowi provides a clear direction of support. As Jokowi's tendencies became more apparent, Prabowo's approval ratings began to grow rapidly**. Ganjar, who initially led the polls, was hit hard, with his approval rating plummeting by 30 percentage points from 68 to 38 in Central Java, where he had a home advantage. This phenomenon is known as the "Jokowi effect" by Indonesian ** and scholars.
Some of Jokowi's traditional allies have complained about Jokowi and Prabowo getting closer. Recently, there have been reports of rifts within the cabinet. Andy Wijayanto used to be Jokowi's aid, but the two drifted apart after October last year. What happened in Indonesia, he told him, "is like Obama's sudden decision to support Trump and his continued support for the Democrats' plans." ”
"The son inherits the father's business".
Three months ago I was nothing. I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to Prabowo for giving space to young people like me. At the Victory Night rally, the young Gibran confessed that he did not expect such a high percentage of votes.
Gibran was like a replica of his father, especially the way he spoke. This is in stark contrast to Prabowo, who has been accused of speaking rudely, such as often addressing women and people with disabilities in inappropriate ways, Amarinda said.
Originally an entrepreneur running a restaurant business, Gibran announced in 2019 that he would join the Struggle Democratic Party. Soon after, he pledged to run for mayor of Thoreau the following year. Despite Gibran's lack of political achievements, the Struggle Democrats nominated him as the sole candidate for mayor of Thoreau, officially embarking on the path of "son inheriting father's business". Jokowi served as mayor of Solo for 7 years, and because of his high popularity in the local area, he was known as a sultan and a king.
Unsurprisingly, Gibran easily won the election in the city of Solo. Political analysts at the time widely expected that Jibran's next stop would be to serve as governor in Central Java or Jakarta provinces. No one could have predicted that he would take the second place as the country's leader in just a few years.
In the past, Indonesian and deputy candidates had to be at least 40 years old. But in October 2023, the Constitutional Court, where Jokowi's brother-in-law Anwar Ibrahim is the chief ** official, made an exception for those who already had experience in elected office. The 36-year-old partnered Prabowo to clear the procedural hurdles. The court's ethics committee dismissed Anwar as chief ** officer in November due to a clear conflict of interest, but the controversial ruling remains in effect and Anwar remains a judge of the Supreme Court.
Three days before the election, a documentary exposing Jokowi's alleged election fraud went viral. The film accuses Jokowi of using ** resources to rig the election to ensure that Prabowo and Gibran win. After the unofficial vote count was released, Prabowo's two rivals did not declare defeat, but said they had received reports of "structural, systemic and large-scale fraud" and called for an official result.
It is common in Indonesia for unsuccessful candidates to challenge election results to the Constitutional Court, sometimes leading to recounts and reballots in some regions. Tim Lindsay, an expert on Indonesian law at the University of Melbourne in Australia, told China Newsweek that Prabowo's lead is very large, and even if the votes are recounted or voted, there will be no subversive results.
According to a combination of exit polls conducted by multiple pollsters, the Democratic Party of Struggle retains its position as the largest party in Congress, but its share of the vote is likely to drop from 20 to 18. The two parties that supported Prabowo, the Professional Bloc and the Greater Indonesia Movement Party, both received about 14 votes, up from 2019.
Prabowo may try to emulate Jokowi and build a grand coalition of parties that can control the country's legislature. The new ** will be sworn in in October, and over the next eight months, the political and business elites will make fierce deals to secure themselves a place in the new **.
What will Prabowo, with his changeable image, look like? Perhaps the politicians Prabowo admires can provide some clues. Many years ago, Prabowo, who was running for the first time, said in an exclusive interview with the Financial Times that India's Jawaharlal Nehru, Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew, Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad and Thailand's Thaksin have inspired him. Prabowo said he liked Nehru because "he came from a wealthy family, but he always defended the poor." Thaksin and Prabowo share many similarities, both have poor human rights records and have both spent time in self-imposed exile. Prabowo said in the interview that although Thaksin was "a little rough and a little a**", "he got things done and the poor liked him".
A number of scholars pointed out to China Newsweek that Prabowo's true colors were a military strongman, and he was notoriously short-tempered and irritable. That well-crafted image of a "cute old man" may not last long.
His capricious temper and strong nationalist tendencies are evident in his handling of things that he thinks will tarnish his face or that of Indonesia. Juhanis believes that when Prabowo faces a crisis in foreign policymaking, there may be some overreaction.
Prabowo's opponents believe that the power in Prabowo's hands will be dangerous. But some scholars point out that there are a number of factors that would constrain Prabowo from becoming the ruler.
Jokowi has a whopping 80 approval rating, which gives him a lot of leeway to test the limits of his power. But Prabowo is not so popular. Juhanis said. Brand argues that in Indonesia, "alliances are constantly changing, centers of power are scattered, and political memories are short-lived......These factors make it difficult for individuals to accumulate much influence, which has created Indonesia's democratic resilience."
While an alliance with Jokowi is key to Prabowo's victory, it remains to be seen whether the ambitious Prabowo will actually "follow the rules" of Jokowi as promised when he takes office. Juhanis pointed out that the power of the deputy is very limited and depends entirely on whether the power is given to his deputy. In the Philippines, for example, Marcos formed a running mate with the daughter of former Duterte. Although many believed that Duterte could maintain influence through his daughter, Marcos set out to reverse many of the former's policies when he came to power.
However, Gibran is only one part of Jokowi's political layout.
In September 2023, Jokowi's youngest son, Kasan, 28, followed in the footsteps of his father and brother. On the third day of joining the Indonesian Solidarity Party, Kasan was appointed chairman of the party. The analysis pointed out that this small party, incubated in 2014 by political and business people who supported Jokowi, could become a tool for Jokowi to exert influence and consolidate his political legacy in the future.
Some analysts expect that age and health problems make it difficult for Prabowo to run again in 2028, while his only son, a fashion designer who is not interested in politics. Amalinda believes that Gibran is likely to challenge for the first position in 2029, and "in the next 20 years, the influence of the Jokowi family should not be underestimated".
Issued in 20242.26. The 1129th issue of China News Weekly.
Magazine title: Prabowo's Road to the Sixth.
Reporter: Chen Jialin.
Editor: Xu Fangqing.