Today, we are faced with a highly uncertain world, full of chaos and complexity. The only constant in this world is change itself, and nothing is more certain than uncertainty. Edgar Moran describes us in this world as "navigating oceans interspersed with uncertainties that define islands". In 2013, I had the privilege of participating in the World Innovation Summit in Education in Doha. At this summit, Edgar Moran called on all those who have the responsibility of education to go to the forefront of the uncertainties of our time. At that time, I was a little skeptical, how could the school be an ivory tower, how could it be to the outpost of uncertainty? But in the past 10 years, we have become more and more aware that as a great thinker, he has a vision that penetrates the times. It turns out that the school is to go to the forefront of studying the uncertainty of this era. "In the face of a complex and increasingly uncertain world, we need to change the paradigm of civilization and use complexity thinking to better understand and respond to the future," he also appealed. ”
Uncertainty brings us the anxiety of the complete unknown, the loss of no longer having, the frustration of routine getting out of control, the panic of not advancing or retreating, and the confusion of being at a loss. The so-called principal leadership is basically to lead the team to deal with uncertainty and find the certainty behind it. There is a basic consensus that innovation and change are the only way to deal with uncertainty. As principals, how can we innovate and change? 
Before answering this question, let's classify uncertainty. There are two types of uncertainty, one is called random uncertainty and the other is cognitive uncertainty. Random uncertainty is "known unknown"; Cognitive uncertainty includes "the unknown known" and the "unknown unknown". "Known unknown".Just like rolling the dice, you can't predict the outcome of every change, but all the results don't leave the laws of statistics, that's for sure. In casinos, it is possible to win by playing once; Keep playing, and you'll definitely lose! This is the "known unknown". "Unknown known".People know it, but you don't know it. You think you're not sure, but you're actually sure. "Unknown unknown".It's unknown to humans, and neither do you. Your uncertainty is also someone else's uncertainty. Let's look at a **, a monkey on a high-voltage line, we see it, and we worry about it, because it is easy to be electrocuted, and it will be electrocuted in a moment. Why? Because we understand this knowledge, but the old monkeys who are called experts, in the face of the monkeys who have been electrocuted, will say to the little monkeys in fear, "This is uncertainty". Don't think these things only happen to monkeys. We have to admit thatThere is too much stupidity in human society, and it is prevalent in reality under the banner of innovation and reform. For example, improper management, capricious command, illegal administration, and the prevalence of human rule will artificially create a lot of uncertainty, which can and must be avoided. 
There are three "uncertainties" in the uncertain worldMicro-observations are inaccurateMacro measurement is not accurate”。Macroscopy is a complex system, which covers almost all the natural and social phenomena of human beings, so it is not accurate. There is also a "inaccurate", called ".Human nature is not accurate”。It is difficult to draw the skin and bones of a tiger, and it is difficult to know the face but not the heart. Complex systems are different from the single linear causal structure of classical mechanics, in which the internal elements are three-dimensionally mosaic, and the positions of effects and causes are often entangled, reversed, and looped to each other, forming chaos. Therefore, innovation and change are mainly the problems brought about by complex systems and human nature, which are common problems for everyone. All human progress happens in the process of encountering and coping with change, so we need to focus on resilience. The most brilliant result of all human efforts to find certainty from uncertainty is scientific progress, because science is an orderly knowledge system with verifiable explanations and objective things, and it is systematized and formulaic knowledge, which is characterized by "certainty". So, in any sense, having more knowledge is the fundamental way we can deal with uncertainty. Knowledge defines the boundaries of random uncertainty so that we can assess risk and make decisions. Knowledge makes the "unknown known" become the "known known", reducing the uncertainty we face. Everyone is moving towards the future at the same speed, but those who know see what others have not seen, and those who can reach what others have not reached. The fundamental way of "enlightenment" and "strong energy" lies in "thinking and acting", and innovative principals must be learners and doers. 
A successful leader, regardless of performance or personality, plays these four roles: vision leader, value leader, change leader, and potential leader. The leaders of all achievements, without exception, are reformers. The ability to create change is the most important aspect of a principal's leadership, and a good principal must be an excellent changemaker and innovator. 
What is "Tron"? 1. Start (do), the first time (do), such as pioneering; 2. Wounds and injuries, such as trauma and heavy injuries. Innovation is to create a new model and method, but also to create a new wound or cause new harm. This also means that innovation comes at a risk and at a cost. In ancient and modern times, the reformers buried by reforms and the reformers buried by reformers have always been the most reformed. Many have not become "pioneers", but have become "martyrs". That's why I say that the wound of a warrior is in the chest, the wound of a deserter is in the back, and the wound of a changeler is in the chest and back. Even so, history can only remember those who changed the world and promoted the progress of human civilization. Today we are in an era of great change, although innovation and change have always accompanied the growth of human beings, but there has never been an era that emphasizes innovation and encourages change as much as today. So, how do you innovate? To innovate, the first thing to break is to break the mindset。It is natural for teachers to write lesson preparation notes, and it is a routine action for us to receive lesson plans from teachers, but to change it, is it okay for us to send lesson plans to teachers? That's the reform of the basic lesson plan, and it's great; It is natural for students to visit museums, and the usual way is to visit outside the school, but now we have changed it and moved the museum to the school; It is a matter of course for students to do homework after class, it is a routine action, change it, put the homework before class to do, so there is a flipped classroom, there is a classroom change. Therefore, there are rules for everything, only innovation has no rules, it has no new elements, only new combinations. Innovation, but also to find the point of change。What is the point of change? In terms of difficulties, key points, nodes, pain points, doubts, blocking points, shortcomings, weaknesses, hot spots, focuses, and stuck points, aren't these the points of our innovation and reform? 
We know that the direction, path, and tools are the innovation power of entrepreneurs, and the innovation power of educators is in the first place. In fact, the direction, path, and tools of educators correspond to the power of ideas (the improvement of the connotative value of education), the power of structure (the innovation of educational systems and mechanisms), and the power of science and technology (the progress of technology inside and outside education). Under the framework of these three forces, there are a large number of topics that we need to innovate and create:Concept Innovation:Educational purpose, talent specifications, training goals, school running purposes, career vision, school culture, service awareness, brand positioning, curriculum reform, classroom transformation, education and scientific research ......Mechanism Innovation:Citizen integration, institutional innovation, custodian services, teaching and research collaboration, new collectivization, cross-district and cross-field alliances, service outsourcing, regular services, flat organizations, democratic management, evaluation promotion, internal companies, integral banks, project learning ......Scientific and technological innovation:Both internal and external technology, focusing on internal technology; Smart Campus, Intelligent Management, Learn Before Teach, Flipped Classroom, Group Cooperation, ......In the process of innovation, we also need to do the following things:One is the thought experiment. We know how to form solutions in the best innovation, so whether these plans will work? You have to do a thought experiment first. Thought experiments are the least costly - form a plan, scrutinize the plan, demonstrate the plan, implement the plan, improve the plan, use the brain to deduce it to understand, and then implement it when there is no problem. The second is to expand consensus. Before the implementation of education reform, it is necessary to expand consensus and minimize the cost of reform. It is necessary to focus on things and regard them as the object of reform, rather than directly targeting people. Even if the purpose is to reform and change people, it is necessary to indirectly influence people through reform. Reform is for the sake of people, uniting people, liberating people, helping people, inspiring people, inspiring people, and achieving people, not to bind people, control people, toss people, and fool people. The third is to implement firmly. In the process of promoting reform, it is necessary to firmly implement it and not give up halfway, and the period of greatest resistance is not in the early stage of innovation, but before reaching the top. You can't retreat during the critical period, you need determination, perseverance, and help. To help is to unite the greatest number of people to promote reform, and with a little bit of strength, you may fail. Only after carrying it will there be a flat river, and giving up will fall short. Fourth, prevent recurrence. Habits are very strong, and it is necessary to prevent repetition, and those who travel a hundred miles are half ninety, and there must be a period of consolidation to carry out the reform to the end. Without consolidation, it is very easy to repeat, and after decades of hard work, it will return to the pre-liberation period overnight. Fifth, maintain flexibility. Educational reform should be flexible and avoid brittleness. The master has an experience: tighten the screws and loosen the half-buckle. The room for "loosening and half-buckling" should be left after the critical period and before the consolidation period. This is the wisdom of reform. 
Educational innovation should also pay attention to the following four characteristics:Innovations in progress-- Educational innovation cannot be carried out on the operating table or in the 4S store. Innovation without trial and error——Facing the living, the stakes are very important, and there is no room for trial and error, so we can only "try carefully and break carefully". Innovations in the system-- Reform and innovation "lead the whole body". Reform that "marches alone" is not necessarily easier than reform that is "advancing as a whole." It is necessary to carry out reforms that "outline the outline", "gain a hundred achievements from one tree", and "rebuild the system", and do not "press down the gourd and scoop it up", still less repeatedly "patch it". There is no turning back-- In the end, the difficulties in reform will have to be resolved by reform, and many reforms will bring more difficulties than those encountered in continuing to push forward. In short, "small reforms, big difficulties; Big reforms, small difficulties; Without reform, it will be more difficult". We have done a lot of big reforms, and it's easier than small ones. Of course, micro-innovation, fine improvement, small topics, and light changes are also worthy of encouragement. Everyone can do it, and the energy is huge, and the key is to create an ecology within the school organization that dares to create, is willing to create, and is conducive to creating. He Fan said: "China's success does not lie in the emergence of geniuses, but in the fact that there are countless ordinary but not mediocre people who continue to try and innovate. "I couldn't agree moreThis is an era of innovation for each and every one of us. Macro policies and the external environment are uncertain, but the pursuit of better, more beautiful, fairer and higher-quality education is certain. It is uncertain what kind of climate and what kind of boss you will encounter, but what kind of life and work attitude you will choose can be determined. 丨Based on the author's speech at the 10th China Education Innovation Annual ConferenceEditor-in-charge丨Ma WanyueSubmission email| [email protected]