China is not short of energy, so why is it not in a hurry to build the China-Russia-Mongolia pipeline? There is a "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project between China, Russia and Mongolia, and this project is not urgent for China, because China can wait for Russia to reduce the amount of natural gas, but Russia is in a hurry, because the longer the time drags on, the more passive the Russian side will be.
Recently, a Russian newspaper "VZGLYAD" analyzed Sino-Russian cooperation in energy and concluded that China may not want to allow the Siberia-2 pipeline to be ventilated earlier. The newspaper also cites two Russian energy experts, Alexei Gromov of the Russian Institute for Energy Strategy and Igor Yushkov of Energy Security.
Their main opinion is:
1. China can buy cheaper natural gas from Russia, and the natural gas sold by Russia to China is about 300 US dollars thousand cubic meters, or even lower, while the natural gas that China buys from Turkmenistan is between 350 and 370 US dollars per thousand cubic meters, and Russia has a clear advantage over Turkmenistan.
2. China's demand for energy is increasing, China has helped Turkmenistan and other Central Asian countries to renovate pipelines, improve gas transmission capacity, and China has also exchanged loans for energy, so that Central Asian countries have the ability to participate in global energy competition.
3. China has not shown interest in the opening of the "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline, which Russia finds strange. It stands to reason that China should be willing to cooperate with Russia and Mongolia, but the fact is that China has not said much on this issue.
4. Mongolia is still trying to win over China, and the prime minister of Mongolia even announced in advance that the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia pipeline project will start in 2024, but China has not signed the contract, which makes the cooperation uncertain. Russia has reason to suspect that Sino-Russian cooperation in energy has reached its limit.
China can't put all its eggs in one basket, and China has big ideological differences with Russia and Mongolia, and in order to maintain balance, it is impossible for China to completely listen to the opinions of its neighbors, although China is one of the world's largest energy consumers, and China's demand for energy seems to be endless.
China needs energy, but it's not a shortage of energy I have a few thoughts to share with you.
First, China does not want to meddle in Russia's affairs, China only wants to do its own thing.
The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project is negotiable, but only if Russia and Mongolia contribute money and efforts, and China will not sign a "vague" agreement with its neighbors. If one day Russia and Mongolia are not good for China, what will China do, and besides, what strength Mongolia has, everyone understands it in their hearts.
There is another phenomenon, which we should pay attention to, that Russia wants to pull China to its side. China does not sell military supplies to Russia, and Russia openly says that it will import Chinese off-road vehicles; China just sold military uniforms to Ukraine, and Russia "made a fuss" and detained 8 containers ......
It is necessary to distance yourself from Russia, so that the pressure on NATO basically falls on Putin**. When Russia can't hold on, China can take the opportunity to reduce imports of natural gas, coal, timber, and oil, isn't it better. The experience of others can be used for reference, and our ancestors have long taught us.
Second, Russia and Mongolia do not understand China.
To be clear: China imported about 500 million tons of oil in 2023, but also produced 200 million tons of oil. Because 7% of the oil is used in cars, if China fully promotes electric vehicles, then the demand for this part will be reduced, and China will no longer have to look at the face of Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil powers.
By the same token, last year China produced 229.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas on its own and imported 1200 million tons of natural gas (about 170 billion cubic meters), which accounts for only 42% of China's total demand5%。If China increases its natural gas capacity, it is estimated that this proportion will fall to 30% or even lower.
On the whole, China is not short of energy, but in order to balance industrial capacity and strengthen ties and cohesion with the world, China has taken the initiative to cede a part of the market share. In this case, Russia's insistence on expanding energy exports to China is a bit redundant and will interfere with China's overall planning.
If Putin had known more about China, he would not have been urging China to make a decision on the "Siberia 2" issue. To be honest, everything Russia does is for the sake of war, and if it hadn't been injured by the ** people in the United States and Europe, it would definitely not have turned to China so quickly.
And judging from Russia's attitude, it intends to go all the way to the dark, hit Kyiv, force Zelensky to give in, and end the "military operation against Ukraine". This means that Russia will continue to put pressure on China to buy more energy. The problem is that China is a sovereign state, and it is impossible to completely obey Putin's wishes.