In the current ** environment, although the market as a whole is in the bottom-finding stage, there is a significant difference in the performance of small and medium-sized growth stocks and traditional track leading stocks. From a valuation perspective, the current PE valuation of the 1000 relative to the CSI 300 is not extreme, which indicates that the market is not in an extremely pessimistic state. However, there are also risk factors such as pledges, snowballs, and financial integration in the volatility of small and medium-sized growth stocks, which means that their volatility may further increase. Conversely, if the market emerges, these factors may not have the same amplifying effect on growth stocks, such as traditional track leaders. Therefore, from the perspective of cost performance, the best time for small and mid-cap growth may not be as good as that of growth stocks.
From the perspective of the domestic economy, the production activities of the manufacturing industry continue to increase, which provides some support for the first place. The Li Keqiang index, which is a proxy for physical flows, has been rising since 2023, indicating that demand in the real economy is recovering. In addition, in Q4 2023, chemical coal consumption, organic chemical exports, and Vietnam's industrial production all showed strong growth, reflecting the momentum and vitality of economic growth. While the market may expect a downside in broad ROE to lead to a decline in economic activity, the trend of a recovery in physical demand may be overlooked.
In terms of allocation strategies, resources, prefixes** and dividend strategies are the focus of current investors. Dividend strategies have the highest level of consensus, while the realities of resources are improving. Although Zhongzitou** has high earnings potential, its valuation elasticity is also relatively high. Taking into account the cost performance, we recommend investors to focus on resources first, followed by the Chinese prefix** and dividend strategies. The specific allocation route includes: first, commodities related fields such as coal, copper, etc.; the second is cyclical industries such as oil transportation, aluminum, and **; the third is the best value stocks, such as banks, non-bank finance, real estate and construction, etc.; Fourth, the public utilities and transportation industries with the characteristics of monopoly operation.
Overall, the current market is in the bottom-finding stage, and investors need to pay attention to the risk factors of small and medium-sized growth stocks and the price-performance ratio of traditional track stocks. At the same time, the trend of domestic economic recovery and changes in physical demand also need to be taken seriously. In terms of allocation strategy, investors can comprehensively consider investment opportunities in different areas such as resources, Chinese prefixes** and dividend strategies according to their own risk appetite and return expectations.
Note: The data and opinions in this article are provided by Minsheng Strategy Team and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
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