2023 is considered to be a year of extreme weather events around the world, with heat waves, typhoons, forest fires, floods and other disasters occurring in different parts of the world. Jorgen Landes, the world's leading climate strategist and veteran of the Club of Rome, was the Deputy Director General of the World Wide Society for Nature in Switzerland and the Dean of the Norwegian Business School. In 1972, he co-authored the publication of The Limits to Growth, which became one of the world's best-selling books on environmental issues, reminding the world of the consequences of the interaction between human systems and the health of the planet. Not only did the book become a cornerstone for raising global awareness of sustainability, but its ideas eventually led to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
Landes: Increased CO2 emissions lead to higher temperatures and extreme weather.
Host Zhu Zilu:
In recent years, we have indeed seen that climate change and extreme weather events pose a threat to the future of humanity. To what extent do you think recent extreme weather events are caused by global warming and climate change?
World climate strategist Jorgen Landes:
I believe that recent developments have shown that the prediction of The Limits to Growth is correct, and that in this century, in the 21st century, the human footprint will begin to interfere with global growth. Climate has proven to be the biggest limiting factor. We haven't run out of resources, we've not run out of land, we've run out of food, but we've exhausted our pollution absorption. We emit more carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases each year than the world's system can absorb it. As a result, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is constantly increasing. It's like a blanket that gets thicker and thicker, and it's getting warmer and warmer underneath. So we're seeing the situation right now, where increased CO2 emissions lead to higher temperatures, which in turn leads to extreme weather.
Host Zhu Zilu:
What happens if this continues?
World climate strategist Jorgen Landes:
If it continues, the climate will get warmer and warmer. The temperature is already 1 percent higher than it was when I was born2 degrees. By the end of the century, temperatures will have risen twice as much as they do now, meaning extreme weather will be much worse than it is now. So if we don't change the way we make decisions, our future will be quite miserable. Of course, it won't lead to the end of the world, but it will make the world a less pleasant place.
Landes: Humanity needs to move away from fossil fuels and towards low-carbon energy sources.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced earlier that 2023 was the hottest year on record. Global temperatures will continue to rise over the next five years, and are likely to exceed 1, one of the key indicators of global warming set out in the Paris Agreement5. Scientists have repeatedly warned that warming above this level would have catastrophic effects globally. In order to achieve a temperature increase of 15, the international community has repeatedly called on countries to step up action to reduce emissions, but it has not stopped the pace of rising temperatures. According to the UK Met Office**, 2024 could be a year when the global average surface temperature is 15 years above the first year.
Host Zhu Zilu:
Tell us non-climate experts in plain language why rising temperatures are so dangerous.
World climate strategist Jorgen Landes:
In the future, we will continue to emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year as humans continue to use fossil fuels, such as coal, natural gas, and oil, leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations and a warmer climate. This will not stop unless we stop burning coal, oil and gas. Coal, oil and gas account for 70% of greenhouse gases. If we stop burning coal, oil and gas and switch to low-carbon energy sources such as solar and wind, the concentration of carbon dioxide will stop rising and the temperature will stop rising, but it will not return to the original level.
To bring the temperature down, we have to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide to levels that were long ago. It takes time. So in the future, the climate will get warmer and the most extreme weather will increase. There is nothing we can do but try to stop using coal, oil, and gas so that the situation does not get worse for our next generation.
Randes: Emissions reductions don't mean a decline in economic development, but a change in content.
On the morning of December 13, 2023, the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released the final text of the decision – the UAE Consensus. At COP28, there was a lively discussion around fossil fuels, with some advocating a phase-out of fossil fuels to achieve a low-carbon transition as soon as possible, while others argued that energy security and economic development should be prioritized and that phasing out fossil fuels might be too aggressive. After several rounds of discussions, the text of the agreement adopted the description of "transition de-escalation", which states to "transition away from fossil fuels in the energy system in a just, orderly and equitable manner", rather than "reduce or phase out", which was the most controversial in the past. This is the first time in the history of the United Nations Climate Change Conference that it has clarified the direction and path of future global climate governance.
Host Zhu Zilu:
Some are inclined to argue that emissions reductions must come at the expense of economic development. How can we make the twin engines work at the same time, so as to achieve a green transition without affecting economic development, or should the other engine drive economic development?
World climate strategist Jorgen Landes:
This involves a misconception of what it means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which actually means shifting part of the labor and capital away from polluting industries to cleaner production. The simplest thing is to get people to stop producing gasoline cars and switch to electric vehicles. Get people to stop working in coal mines and move to building windmills or solar panels. Reducing emissions does not mean a decline in economic development or a decrease in GDP, but only a change in the content of economic development. It's hard to get people to understand this. Those who don't work in polluting industries may understand, but those working in polluting industries may feel that they are losing their jobs and that they are going to move to other industries. But that's not the case. So here's the first point: understand that improving the environment simply means transferring labor and capital from one sector to another.
As for the impact of emission reductions on GDP, if you are interested, you will find that the GDP after emission reductions is upward, because the products produced after the emission reductions are higher, and the GDP is multiplied by the number of products. Emissions reductions have zero impact on total employment. You're just moving workers from one industry to another. The only effect is that material consumption, people's real wages, do not grow as fast as they should. The growth rate will be slower, as I said, about half a percentage point per year, which is not a big problem in China, because in China, people's wages are growing quite fast, but in rich countries it is a problem, because first of all our economic growth is almost zero.
Landes: In the past decade, China has made leaps and bounds in renewable energy.
For nearly 40 years, Georgen Landers has been actively involved in China's environmental protection process through speeches, dialogues, and books. In 2012, Georgen Landers published 2052. In this book, Landers also made all kinds of **, and this time, China was placed in an extremely important position by him. In his view, according to the current development mode, by 2052, the world will face outstanding problems such as wealth disparity, economic stagnation, and frequent extreme weather events, and China is one of the few countries with the power to change the world.
Host Zhu Zilu:
China is located in a geographical region that is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate change. What do you think are the impact of these events on China? How is China coping?
World climate strategist Jorgen Landes:
In general, I think China has done the only thing that can and should be done. China knew early – unbelievably early – what warming would mean for China. Fifteen, nearly 20 years ago, when I came here, the China Meteorological Administration had already made great maps of how the drought in central China was going to expand, how the rainfall was going to increase in Kunming or the south, and so on. So Chinese scientists have been well aware of the consequences of a warming climate for decades. Of course, the Chinese leadership is faced with the situation that 40 years ago China was very poor and could no longer increase the burden. Poverty must be eradicated first, and China has done a very good job in this area over the past 40 years, which is an unprecedented feat. This is the first point, China has solved the most serious problem of poverty.
The next question is, how can China switch from polluting energy sources such as coal, oil and gas to renewable energy? The program began 10 years ago. **Put forward the concept of harmonious society, green civilization, ecological civilization and so on. So China has been developing solar panels, windmills, electric cars for a long time, and it's doing very well. China has also put forward the concept of "dual carbon", that is, to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, which is an important goal. In many ways, this goal is sufficient and is being achieved, which is not the case in the West, where we set goals and we can't achieve them because our democracies can't keep an eye on the things that cost money.
Host Zhu Zilu:
China is a leader in areas such as solar energy.
World climate strategist Jorgen Landes:
Of course, you are producing the solar panels that are needed in the rest of the world right now. You're also making batteries, and you're gradually taking over the electric vehicle market. This is a textbook-level approach. That's how it should be. From the point of view of the rest of the world, China is providing these countries with the infrastructure they need. Once these countries finally act and are willing to spend the money they have to spend, they will find that Chinese products are the cheapest and they will buy Chinese products.
Producer: Wang Zhijiang.
Choreographer & Editor: That's fine.