Recently, the policy combination has continued to exert force, and everyone has experienced the boost in market sentiment. It is worth noting that, in addition to the RRR cut, on January 24, 2024, the theme of state-owned enterprises will be important again, and relevant departments said at the press conference on the high-quality development of central enterprises that they will further study the willMarket value management is included in the performance appraisal of the person in charge of the central enterpriseGuide the person in charge of central enterprises to pay more attention to the market performance of the listed companies they control, and timely use market-oriented means such as increasing holdings and repurchases to convey confidence, stabilize expectations, and increase cash dividends.
The "signal theory" of market capitalization management corporate behavior has been mentioned to you many times in the previous informationOn the whole, it may be that the company has played a "demonstration effect" by increasing its holdings and increasing dividends, actively bullish on its own track and the company's business prospects, and release positive signals to investors. Under the background of the current policy support, the theme of state-owned enterprises is coming again
In the whole market, there were also two major positives on January 24: (1) monetary easing: the RRR cut was 50 bps higher than expected, and the structural interest rate cut and the RRR cut played a two-pronged role; (2) Market care: The regulator has expressed more than expected on the recent fluctuations, emphasizing the need to build an investor-oriented capital market, so that the majority of investors have returns and a sense of gain.
Over-falling ** or central state-owned enterprises + over-falling growth can be preferred. On the one hand, the central state-owned enterprises have ushered in a strong catalyst after a long period of adjustment, and the follow-up reform of important domestic meetings is expected to be gradually brewing; On the other hand, in January 2024, the growth style represented by TMT will be deeply adjusted, and the bright performance of overseas technology stocks is expected to form a strong reflection on the domestic market after the liquidity pressure is lifted, and the innovation drive of AI + consumer electronics is expected to become the main line of the whole year.
Tool selection,Central Enterprise ETF (159959).The largest weighted track of the central enterprise structural adjustment index tracked is the TMT track including computers, communications, national defense and military industry, orA powerful tool for the layout of central state-owned enterprises + over-falling growth。At the same time, the index also has a layout for "stable growth" industries such as building decoration, public utilities, petroleum and petrochemical, etc., which have certain dividend attributes, and are also expected to benefit from the window period of continuous development of stable growth policies in the first quarter. The overall style is relatively balanced, and the allocation value of the central enterprise ETF (159959) at the current point in time is highlighted.
Chart: Distribution of first-class industries in the structural adjustment index of central enterprises.
Info**: wind; As of 20240124).
1. Weighted industries: The computer information and innovation policy of the TMT track has been increased, and the RRR reduction has stimulated the policy-oriented track
What is information innovation: the full name of information technology application innovation industry, not only the foundation of data security and network security, but also an important part of the new infrastructure. The core of Xinchuang lies in the use of China's self-developed basic software and hardware products to achieve domestic substitution, covering multiple subdivisions such as IT infrastructure, basic software, application software and information security in the TMT track. The basic hardware includes chips, servers, storage devices, etc.; The basic software includes databases, operating systems, etc.; Application software includes office software, ERP system, etc.; Information security includes products such as hardware security, software security, and service security.
On December 28, 2023, the information and innovation industry made steady progress, and 7 basic software and hardware procurement demand standards were released, clarifying that when purchasing desktop computers, the CPU and operating system should be included in the standards when purchasing desktop computers.
On December 26, 2023, the first batch of safe and reliable evaluation results were announced, with a validity period of three years, and a number of domestic CPUs, operating systems, databases and other basic software and hardware products were included.
Figure: The implementation process of information innovation applications in various fields.
Message**: Safety**).
As early as 2013, China began to promote domestic substitution from the field of official document system, followed by eight major industries such as finance and telecommunications, and domestic substitution of information and innovation in N industries is also expected to be gradually launched. "2+8+N" has a wide space. As of December 2021, the implementation rate of finance and transportation was 2955% and 1910%, with the improvement of the performance of China's domestic basic software and hardware products, from "usable" to "easy to use", the long-term substitution space of Xinchuang is broad.
RRR Cut Stimulates High Prosperity and Policy-Oriented Track: RRR Cut is one of the core variables that the market has paid the most attention to. Looking back at history, the policy orientation, high prosperity and financial industry have performed well in the short term after previous RRR cuts.
(1) Policy-oriented industries。For example, TMT and national defense industry under the innovation policy and national defense modernization in 2015, nonferrous metals, construction, iron and steel, and coal under the supply-side reform in 2016, home appliances, food and beverages, commerce and retail, and social services under the growth policy in 2019 and 2020, military industry under the national defense and military upgrading in 2022, and automobiles and electric new energy policies under the new energy policy.
Chart: Distribution of industry trends after previous RRR cuts since 2015.
Info**: Joaquin**).
(2) High-prosperity industries。For example, TMT under the wave trend of the Internet industry in 2015, real estate, building materials, steel, and coal under the post-cycle and supply-side reform of real estate in 2016, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery under the pig cycle in 2018, medicine under the influence of public health prevention and control in 2020 all performed strongly in the context of three RRR cuts, new electricity under the trend of new energy in 2020, and media catalyzed by overseas AI in 2023.
Looking back at the policy guidance at the current point in time, in the context of weak economic recovery, trillions of national debt stimulus and PSL restart stimulated infrastructure construction, hydropower and utilities to counter-cyclical force; The TMT track has an obvious orientation for information and innovation. In the context of the continuous interpretation of AI industry trends, the TMT track continues to usher in multiple catalysis. The weighted sectors of the central enterprise ETF (159959) tracking index are expected to show strong resilience.
2. Style performance: with bonus attributes, both offensive and defensive
The dominant performance of the dividend style since 2022 is obvious to all. The weighted industry growth style of the central enterprise ETF (159959) tracking index is prominent, but at the same time, it has certain dividend attributes, and the style is relatively balanced, both offensive and defensive.
(1) Dividend yield = dividend share priceDividend yield is essentially a valuation indicator. The dividend yield of the central enterprise structural adjustment index is as high as 384%, compared to 236% is significantly higher and higher than the mainstream broad-based index of the A** field. The historical quantile of dividend yield is 9091%, which means 90 percent more than historically91% of the time it's cheaper and more cost-effective.
Chart: Dividend yield performance of the central enterprise structural adjustment index.
Info**: wind; As of 20240125).
(2) Dividend payout ratio = dividend per share Net profit per share。The dividend payout ratio can be simply understood as how much of the money earned by the company is given back to investors in the form of dividends. Looking back on the previous five years, the dividend payout ratio of the constituent stocks of the Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index was above 40%, and it increased steadily, which was better than the 30%+ dividend payout ratio of the Wind All A Index, and higher than the mainstream broad-based index.
Chart: Performance of the dividend payout ratio of the central enterprise structural adjustment index.
Info**: wind; As of 20240125).
(3) Proportion of the number of participating companies= Number of index constituents of companies that paid dividends during the fiscal year. In recent years, the number of dividend-paying companies has exceeded 90, accounting for more than 90%. In 2022, the proportion of dividend-paying companies will be 93%, which is higher than the level of 63% of the whole market (Wind All A Index), and also significantly more than other mainstream broad-based indexes.
Chart: Number of companies participating in the Structural Adjustment Index of Central Enterprises.
Info**: wind; As of 20240125).
The dividend attribute of the central enterprise structural adjustment index tracked by the overall central enterprise ETF (159959) is prominent, and while the track has strong offensive growth, it also has a certain absolute return defensive nature, forming a "dumbbell" configuration in the index sample space.
3. Theme of central enterprises: The reform of central enterprises continues to deepen, and the quality of operation is expected to improve
In addition to the current market value assessment system of central enterprises, in the long-term dimension, the historical mission of state-owned enterprises is prominent in the transition period when the dividends of the last round of reform will be released and the next round of reform is in the ascendant. The meeting of heads of central enterprises held on December 26, 2023 further clarified the target management system of central enterprises in 2024.
Compared with the requirements of "one increase, one stability and four improvements" under the framework of "one profit and five rates" at the beginning of 2023, the assessment target of central enterprises in 2024 will be updated to "one profit and five rates of steady growth, and continuous optimization of five rates" under the premise that the framework of "one profit and five rates" remains unchanged, including:
1) The efficiency of central enterprises has been steadily improved, and the total profit, net profit and net profit attributable to the parent company have grown in synergy;
2) The overall asset-liability ratio remained stable;
2) Return on net assets, total labor productivity, and operating cash ratio improved year-on-year, and R&D investment intensity and scientific and technological output efficiency continued to improve;
Table: Assessment objectives of state-owned enterprise reform over the years.
Message**: Industrial **).
Compared with the assessment requirements in 2023, it is emphasized in 2024 that net profit and net profit attributable to the parent company also need to be coordinated with the growth of total profit, further improve the assessment system, force central enterprises to accelerate professional operation, and further strengthen the initiative of central enterprise market value management, which is expected to be realized".Performance improvement, secondary market return increase, capital inflow, performance improvement", the positive cycle of capital market investment, boosted the central enterprises to accelerate into the value realization stage.
Overall central enterprise ETF (159959).Most of the weighted industries of the central enterprise structural adjustment index tracked are over-falling growth tracks, with certain dividend attributes in style, both offensive and defensive, and are expected to show strong flexibility in the context of deepening the long-term trend of central enterprise reform and short-term policy innovation. Central Enterprise ETF (159959).Or will usher in the layout window.
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