Visual China.
Text |New Energy Prospects, Author |Su Qing, edAnd Chang.A new number of mass-produced models equipped with large cylindrical batteries have been added.
On January 31, 2024, the JAC Refine RF8 was officially launched, becoming the third model equipped with a large cylindrical battery. The other two are: the JAC Yttrium 3, which will be launched on June 16, 2023, and the Tesla Cybertruck, which recently toured China.
Of course, the Cybertruck's official name in China is Cyber Off-Road Wagon.
On January 28, 2023, the much-talked-about Tesla Cyber off-road station wagon officially opened its domestic tour. The eight cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Chengdu and Nanjing.
Musk has previously said that the 4680 battery will be an important part of Tesla's 2023 plan, and all of Tesla's future electric models, including the Model Y, Semi semi-trailer truck, Cyber electric truck and Roadster 2 electric sports car, will use the 4680 large cylindrical battery.
According to Musk's vision, the large cylindrical battery can increase the range of Tesla's electric vehicles by 16%, while reducing the production cost by 50%, and is even considered the "light of lithium batteries".
But in fact, after Musk launched the 4680 large cylindrical battery in 2020, it was not until mid-2023 that the large cylindrical battery began to be mass-produced on a small scale. According to public information, in June 2023, Tesla produced the 10 million battery cells, and by October 2023, the 20 million 4680 battery cells were born. This means that the annual output of large cylindrical battery cells is 30 million, which is equivalent to 240,000 cybertrucks with battery usage.
Obviously, such battery production is out of proportion to the order volume of more than 2 million units of the Cybertruck.
On the other hand, Tesla previously announced that the anode of the 4680 battery will use silicon carbide material to improve energy density, but after dismantling the battery, a technical institution found that the anode does not contain silicon carbide, but graphite. What's more, the energy density of 4680 large cylindrical batteries is not as good as that of 2170 small cylindrical batteries.
In this way, the large cylindrical battery is still far away from the "light of lithium battery".
At present, the power battery of new energy vehicles can be divided into three categories according to the shape: square, soft pack and cylindrical. Square is the mainstream form, accounting for about 60% of the market share.
Cylindrical batteries can be divided into two categories: small cylindrical and large cylindrical, the former is a diameter of 21 mm, height of 70 mm "2170 cylindrical battery", is a mature product. The large cylindrical battery has not long entered the market, and the main development direction is the battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm, which is also often called "4680 cylindrical battery".
In Tesla's view, a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46mm is the best size for improving battery life and reducing costs. The smaller the diameter, the more battery cells the vehicle needs, and the more difficult the management of BMS (battery management system) becomes; As the diameter increases, the number of cell cells decreases, but the heat dissipation of the battery cells becomes a difficult point.
And there is no "tipping point" in height, so there is , even 46120 batteries.
In terms of battery life, large cylindrical batteries have a higher upper limit of energy density and higher safety. Taking JAC Refine RF8 as an example, the energy density of the lithium iron phosphate battery it carries is 180Wh kg, while the general lithium iron phosphate density is 100-150Wh kg. At the same weight, large cylindrical batteries can provide electric vehicles with longer range and higher performance.
An important reason why Musk introduced the large cylindrical battery is also its low cost.
For Musk, the larger 4680 battery can reduce the number of battery cells and welding accessories, thereby simplifying the battery pack structure and reducing the use of materials. In addition, the cathode material of Tesla's 4680 battery is made of nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) material, which is relatively inexpensive and can provide higher energy density.
"The rise of large cylindrical batteries is related to the market strategy of car companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency. "Some people in the industry have made a forward-looking analysis of new energy, and large cylindrical batteries have certain advantages in overall cost due to the reduction of the structure of the whole package, and also have the advantages of high energy density and good power performance.
Therefore, many battery manufacturers have chosen to follow Tesla's pace.
In September 2020, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla would produce 4680 batteries. "We still have a lot of work to do with the 4680 battery. Although it may seem like a battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm, it contains amazing new technology in its own right. Musk said.
Subsequently, Panasonic, LG, EVE, Envision Power, CATL, BAK Battery and other companies successively announced that they would incorporate large cylindrical batteries into the company's technology development path.
In September 2023, EVE said on the investor interactive platform that the company's first large cylindrical production line will be completed by the end of 2022. In the first half of 2023, the 1,000,000th battery will roll off the assembly line.
In May 2023, EVE's wholly-owned subsidiary signed a land purchase agreement with a Hungarian land seller to purchase its land in the Northwest Industrial Zone of Debrecen for the production of cylindrical power batteries; In June of the same year, the 46 series large cylindrical lightweight battery pack was released for the first time; EVE even said that the 46 series power energy storage battery has achieved customer intention demand in the next 5 years, totaling about 392GWh; It has also planned a production capacity of more than 100GWh for large cylindrical batteries, and is expected to achieve mass production in 2023-2024.
Panasonic's chief technology officer in charge of electric vehicle batteries said recentlySince Panasonic will launch a new generation of improved 2170 batteries and 4680 batteries as early as 2024, Tesla may offer cheaper electric vehicles to the market in the near future.
According to incomplete statistics from the new energy outlook, in terms of domestic enterprises, CATL, Envision Power, EVE Lithium Energy, BAK Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, China Innovation Airlines, Honeycomb Energy, Chuangming New Energy, Azure Lithium Core and other battery companies have a layout in the field of 4680 batteries or other 46 series cylindrical batteries.
Among them, EVE Lithium Energy, Envision Power, and CATL are all the leading suppliers of large cylindrical batteries for BMW. According to the BMW Group's plan, from 2025 onwards, large cylindrical batteries with a standard diameter of 46 mm will be used in the "new generation" models.
There is no doubt that not only Tesla and Musk, but also the power battery industry is unanimously optimistic about the prospects of large cylindrical batteries.
Huatai ** predicts that the global installed capacity of large cylindrical batteries will reach 429GWh in 2027, and the corresponding market size will be 2144800 million yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 110 from 2023 to 20277%。According to the Northeast ** research report, the global installed capacity of 46 series large cylindrical batteries is expected to reach 255GWh in 2025, and the global market penetration rate can be increased to 20%.
However, the successful transition from the laboratory to mass production of large cylindrical batteries has not been smooth sailing. Tesla, which was the first to launch the 4680 battery, has repeatedly "had a difficult birth". Panasonic, Japan's largest lithium battery company, also announced that the mass production of the company's 4680 large cylindrical battery will be postponed to April-September 2024, one year later than the original schedule.
Industry insiders believe that the challenges that need to be faced in the mass production of large cylindrical batteries include tab welding process, production line, production rhythm, etc., among which the biggest challenge in the production process lies in the welding technology and the corresponding equipment. At the same time,The positive and negative poles of cylindrical lithium batteries inside the cylinder are relatively harsh, and it is difficult to dissipate heat inside the cell, so it has a certain impact on the battery life.
The low yield rate is also a problem that plagues the 4680 large cylindrical battery. Recent data shows that the yield rate of Tesla's 4680 battery has reached 95%. As a comparison, the yield rate of 2170 small cylindrical batteries is 99%.
The difficulty of mass production of Tesla's 4680 large cylindrical battery was also reflected in the ** meeting after its latest financial report. Musk said that 2024 will be an important year for the production capacity growth of 4680 large cylindrical batteries, and the company will build four new 4680 battery production lines in the third quarter of 2024.
Musk also specifically thanked Tesla's battery companies, CATL and Panasonic, and also said that he would add other companies.
Also because of the "difficult birth" of the 4680 large cylindrical battery, Tesla's North American official ** has rolled off the assembly line of the Model Y AWD basic model equipped with 4680 batteries.
On January 28, 2024, when New Energy Prospect visited the Tesla Cyber off-road station wagon at the China Central Place in Beijing, he also asked the relevant person in charge of Tesla when he would be able to buy the Tesla Model Y equipped with a 4680 large cylindrical battery, and was told that "from the perspective of use scenarios, the 4680 is more suitable for the Cybertruck".
It seems that it is difficult for domestic consumers to buy cars equipped with Tesla's 4680 large cylindrical batteries in the short term.
Of course, with the continuous updating and maturity of battery technology, large cylindrical batteries may still become the mainstream form of power batteries and enter thousands of households.
Now the battery is still in the time when innovation is very active and a hundred flowers are blooming, but I believe that the situation should be clearer in another 10 years. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Tsinghua University, once publicly saidThe innovation cycle of battery technology is about 30 years, and the application of lithium-ion batteries is around 2000, so it is expected that there will be all-round innovation in battery technology in 2030.
The "last 6 years" of lithium batteries, are you optimistic about large cylindrical batteries?