Key takeaways:
The battery is a non-standard product, and the difference between products and customers causes product differencesAt present, Ningde ** is much higher than the second-line battery, which is reasonable and sustainable. In 22 years, when the raw materials were at a high point, the price difference between CATL and the second line was not obvious, basically 01-0.2 yuan Wh, and 23H2 raw material ** low, the spread widened to 02-0.3 yuan Wh, the main reason is that Ningde has diversified product and customer structure, the advantages of first-chain procurement, and the relatively smooth adjustment of batteries. At the same time, the battery is a non-standard product, the price difference is obvious, and the current energy storage lithium iron cell is 035-0.4 yuan wh (tax included), power iron lithium battery cell 04-0.45 yuan Wh (tax included), while overseas ternary pack is still above 1 yuan Wh, while CATL's ternary shipments account for about 50% and overseas customers exceed 50% (including Tesla), so the average price in 23Q3 is still higher than 1 yuan Wh, and Q4 only slightly declines by 5-10%.
The overseas pricing model can be maintained, the domestic ** has bottomed out, and the overall battery ** has little room for exploration. 1) Overseas:Overseas car companies have a high entry threshold for the first chain, the competition pattern is concentrated, the competition is not fierce, and the battery pricing method is the annual decline of raw material linkage + non-linkage part, which is relatively stable. A new round of fixed-point will be launched in 23 years, due to the high cost of Japanese and South Korean battery companies, the bottom of overseas batteries, and this European round of fixed-point is expected to be more than 40% of CATL's share. 2) Domestic side:In February 24, some iron-lithium power cells **04 yuan wh (tax included), we calculate that the cost of lithium iron cell excluding tax is 037 yuan Wh, BOM cost is 027 yuan wh (excluding yield),* has fallen below the cash cost of second-tier manufacturers. In addition, the impact of subsequent raw materials on the battery** is expected to be only 001-0.02 yuan wh, but ** space is very limited.
Based on cost and product advantages, the profit gap between CATL and second-tier manufacturers will continue to be maintained, and the unit profit will drop slightly to 0 in 2407-0.08 wh. 1) Cost: We estimate that CATL has 0 compared with second-tier battery companies05-0.The difference of 06 yuan wh is mainly due to the low amount of raw materials and the low purchase price (0.01 yuan Wh), large single-line production capacity, low labor, less depreciation (0.01 yuan Wh), high yield, high capacity utilization rate (003 yuan wh), which is based on long-term technology, short-term difficult to catch up; 2) Product structure: The most competitive market is domestic iron and lithium, and we are pessimistic that the unit profit of this product in Ningde will drop to 001 yuan wh (corresponding to the large loss of cash cost in the second line), but the proportion of domestic iron and lithium in Ningde's shipments is only 20%, and the impact is limited. The domestic ternary, overseas iron-lithium and ternary profits fell slightly, and we expect the domestic iron-lithium unit profit to be 001 yuan wh "domestic ternary overseas iron lithium 0."05 yuan wh "overseas three yuan 0.14 yuan wh, the average unit profit of Ningde in 24 years is 007-0.08 yuan wh, down 001-0.02 yuan wh, the overall profit can be flat, better than market expectations.
Key takeaways:
The single application scenario of XR headset restricts hardware shipments and application prosperity. According to WellSenn XR data, global VR equipment shipments in 23 years have been more than -20% year-on-year, and overseas and Chinese VR shipments have declined year-on-year since 3Q23. We believe that one of the important reasons is that the application scenarios are relatively simple, a survey by Newzoo shows that the top three use scenarios of VR device consumers are playing games (about 72% of users choose), watching movies, and participating in virtual events. The most popular content of the year in the Quest Store is basically all VR games; AR glasses shipments have grown rapidly in the past year, +20% year-on-year in 23 years, mainly driven by movie-level AR glasses, but the total shipments are only about 510,000 unitsThe scope of users covered by a single application scenario is narrow, the replacement cycle is long, and the hardware penetration is restricted, resulting in insufficient enthusiasm of developers, and the number and types of applications are small, failing to form a virtuous circle in which hardware and content promote each other.
As a benchmark MR product, Vision Pro has greatly improved its performance and demonstrated a wider range of XR application scenarios, and the XR market space is expected to be opened. Based on the tens of millions of developers in Apple's ecosystem and its own strong ecosystem, the enthusiasm of developers to enter the game and increase their size is expected to increase, which in turn will promote the explosion of applications.
Key takeaways:
Microsoft: The core business performance is solid, and the growth of the Azure cloud is accelerated by AI. In 24Q2, the company achieved revenue of US$62 billion (+18% YoY, +16% YoY at constant exchange rates, hereinafter referred to as CC), operating profit +25% YoY (CC +33%) to US$27 billion, and net profit +26% YoY (CC +23%) to US$21.9 billion. Among them, Azure revenue maintained a high growth rate, +30% year-on-year (CC+28%), of which AI contributed 6 percentage points (3 percentage points in the previous quarter). M365 Copilot is still in its early stages, but the deployment and outlook are positive. The personal computing segment was +19% year-on-year (CC+18%), of which the acquisition of Blizzard contributed 15 percentage points. 2024Q1 revenue is expected to be $138 billion to $143.5 billion (+8% to 13% YoY), operating profit is expected to be $8 billion to $12 billion ($4.8 billion in 23Q1), including a reduction in depreciation expense of $0.9 billion. Guidance: FY24 operating margin is expected to improve by 1%-2%.
Google: Double-digit growth in the advertising business, cloud growth recovered, and profit margins were under pressure. The company's full-year revenue for 2023 is $307 billion, +9% year-on-year. In FY23Q4, the company achieved revenue of US$86.3 billion (+13% YoY, CC +13%), and GAAP gross margin was 565% (+3% YoY, -02pcts), GAAP net income of $20.7 billion (+52% YoY).
Meta: Intensified e-commerce competition boosts advertising growth, strong guidance for the next quarter, and large buybacks boost shareholder confidence. FY23Q4 revenue of $40.1 billion (+25% YoY) was above the upper end of guidance. Operating profit was $16.4 billion, with an operating margin of 41% (+21pcts YoY, +1pcts QoQ) and net income of $14.0 billion (+201% YoY). Advertising revenue was $38.7 billion (+24% year-on-year), unchanged from the previous quarter. Advertisers in China** e-commerce and gaming verticals are in high demand, with revenue from Chinese advertisers accounting for 10% of total revenue in 2023 and contributing 5 percentage points to global revenue growth. Guidance for first-quarter 2024 revenue of $34.5 billion to $37 billion (+20%-29% YoY) was significantly better than expected. It is planned to start a quarterly dividend (0. per share$5) and $50 billion in large buybacks.
Amazon: Retail has steadily improved efficiency, and cloud business has re-accelerated. FY23Q4 achieved operating income of $170 billion (+14% YoY), above guidance of $160 billion to $167 billion, operating profit of $13.2 billion ($2.7 billion in the same period last year), and OPM of 7.8% (+6pcts YoY, flat QoQ), net profit of US$10.6 billion (net profit of US$300 million in the same period last year). Among them, retail revenue growth accelerated for four consecutive quarters, and the cost per order in the United States decreased by 0$45 or more, North American retail OPM is $61%。AWS revenue grew 13% year-over-year (up from 12% in the previous quarter), and customer demand for innovative AI applications and workloads to the cloud continued.
Key takeaways:
Q4 dynamic storage shipments increased by nearly 20%, and shipments are expected to be 75-80GWh in 24 years, a year-on-year increase of 40-50%. We expect that Q4 company's dynamic storage shipments will be close to 18GWh, an increase of 20%, including ternary 5GWh, lithium iron 12-13GWh, and the company will achieve a domestic power installed capacity share of 4 in 23 years5%, energy storage battery production share 101%, a significant year-on-year increase, we expect to ship nearly 54GWh in 23 years, an increase of 80% year-on-year, including ternary 14GWh, lithium iron 40GWh+ (energy storage accounts for 70%). It is expected to ship 75-80GWh in 24 years, an increase of 40-50%, including ternary 16-18GWh (large cylinder 2-3GWh), lithium iron 60GWh+, the increase mainly comes from lithium iron energy storage, domestic Xiaopeng, GAC, Nezha, and BMW.
The provision of Q4 expenses affects the profitability of the battery, and if it is added back, it will be flat from the previous quarter. The proportion of energy storage of raw materials in Q4 has increased, and we expect the company's Q4 battery ** to drop by 10% to 07 yuan Wh (tax included), 24 years is expected to be further**, but the company will optimize the energy storage battery structure, increase the proportion of modules and packs, and then increase the average price. In terms of earnings, we expect Q4 unit profit to remain at 003 yuan Wh, down 25% month-on-month, if you consider adding back the bonus of 200 million yuan, the single wh profit is expected to be 004 yuan wh, the same as the third quarter. In 23 years, the total contribution of dynamic reserves was 1.7 billion yuan, and the unit profit was 003 yuan wh, it is expected that the profitability level will remain 0 in 24 years02-0.03 yuan wh, contributing profit of 2.2 billion yuan+.
The consumer business remained stable, and the demand for small cylinders recovered significantly. We expect Q4 consumer batteries to contribute a total of 300 million+ profits, a slight increase from the previous quarter, and a total of 1.1-1.2 billion profits for the whole year. Due to the completion of overseas warehousing, the monthly sales volume of small cylinders recovered to 0800 million, we expect to sell 6 in 23 years500 million, 24 years is expected to reach 1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%+. We expect e-cigarettes Q4 to contribute nearly 1The investment income of 500 million yuan was flat month-on-month, and contributed 5200 million yuan, down 33% year-on-year, is expected to remain stable in 24 years.
Key takeaways:
Event: On February 1, the company released the production and sales express report for January 2024, with a total output of 20 new energy vehicles560,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3334%, down 3346%；The total sales volume of new energy vehicles was 20150,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3314%, down 4092%。Among them, the total production of passenger cars was 20510,000 units, with a total sales volume of 20100,000 units; Commercial vehicle production totaled 474 units, with total sales of 474 units.
The prosperity of the off-season has fallen. The year-on-year growth rate of the company's new energy vehicle sales in January (33.).14%), which is lower than the relevant indicator in December (45.).00%), which is comparable to November (31.).02%）；Month-on-month growth rate (-40.).92%), which is significantly lower than the monthly related indicators (0. m/m in November02%, 12 months in December96%）。January is a traditional off-month, and some of the sales models are inventory cars pressed in December, and the year-end promotion at the end of December has led to a significant increase in the monthly sales base, and the sales volume in January has decreased sharply month-on-month.
Looking up to the U7 was officially released, and the light truck T5 was newly launched. On January 11, the million-level new energy flagship sedan Yangwang U7, equipped with the two core technologies of Yi Sifang and Yunlin, was officially released. In terms of design style, the "Gate of Time and Space" family language integrates sportiness and elegance, with smooth body lines, rich in technology and futurism; In terms of power, Yi Sifang, with four motor independent drive as the core, has a maximum power of 240kw and a vehicle horsepower of more than 1,300 horsepower; In terms of control, four-wheel independent torque vectoring improves control accuracy and brings users the ultimate safety. In addition, on January 10, the company's new light truck T5 series was newly launched, divided into 3 different versions, namely T5DM Fortune Edition (13From 980,000 yuan), T5DM Technology Edition (14from 780,000 yuan) and T5EV 94 kWh (16from 980,000 yuan). Among them, the light truck T5DM has a cargo capacity of 300-400kg more than that of hybrid products in the same industry, and the fuel consumption under comprehensive working conditions is 92L 100km, 30%-80% charging < 30min. It has the advantages of pulling more goods, low fuel consumption and fast charging; The T5EV light truck has a self-developed blade battery to ensure low energy consumption and high safety, with an energy consumption of 32kWh for 100km and an operating cost of 03 yuan km is 1 3 of the same ton of fuel vehicles. It can be seen that both the T5DM and T5EV, which are based on the company's advanced technology accumulation, have strong competitiveness.
Key takeaways:
We expect a positive market response to Vestas Wind Energy's fourth-quarter results, which reported adjusted net income of $1EUR 4.2 billion, mainly due to strong operating results, particularly in its Power Solutions division. The company provided FY24 revenue and EBIT margin guidance, which was above market expectations. The company recorded a record order back of €8.2 billion with a total order intake of 8,248 MW in the quarter, and reaffirmed its long-term goal of achieving an EBIT margin of 10 percent, positive free cash flow and a ROCE of 20 percent over the full cycle. For our most recent outlook for 2024, see Global Energy Outlook 2024: U.S. Renewables Recovery, but Selective Entry. Emphasizing our view of investing in quality wind energy with value-added services**, Vestas fits this category and, in our opinion, is increasingly becoming the only wind energy manufacturer worth owning.