In 2023, Chinese brands will surpass joint venture brands for the first time with a market share of 56%, becoming the main force in the Chinese market, and there are even institutions**, and the market share of China's independent brands will accelerate to 60% by 2025.
But there is a good chance that this agency's ** is not accurate.
According to the data recently released by the China Association of China, in January 2024, the sales of Chinese brand passenger cars reached 12780,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 686%, and the market share increased by 88 percentage points, breaking through 60%. In other words, there is no need to wait until 2025, and the share of joint venture brands will already be only 40%.
It's hard to get what you've lost back, especially in the current market situation. After the Spring Festival, BYD started a new round of ** war with a wave of "Glory Edition" models. 7.The 980,000 yuan Qin plus glory version has forced the joint venture brand that sticks to the market below 200,000 yuan into a corner.
Thirty years in the east of the river and thirty years in the west of the river
Let's turn the clock back to 2020, when the joint venture brands still didn't seem to realize the danger.
The market share of German brands is still firmly in the first place, and Japanese brands are collectively strong, forming a pattern of separation between the two strong and the German brand. Although the U.S. brand is slightly weak, GM and Ford broke out of new cars that year, and the annual sales growth was positive year-on-year, and they are all in a stage of recovery. It seems that only Korean brands are declining. At that time, the combined market share of the four major national brands reached 60%, while the market share of China's own brands was only 40%.
If we look at the timeline further, we will find that the market share of Chinese brands has never reached 50% in history, and 40% has been a relatively good level for many years. Even after the end of the market blowout in 2017, the share of Chinese brands continued to decline, once falling below 40%. From 2015 to 2017, with the popularity of SUV models, independent brands collectively attacked the SUV market, only to increase the market share to a high point of 44%.
After 2020, the new energy market began to usher in an explosion, the awareness of Chinese people's independent brands awakened, and the market share of Chinese brands soared again. And this time, the speed and strength of the punch are much higher than before. From 49 in 20209% to 56% in 2023 and then to 60 in January 20244%, the market share of Chinese brands continues to break records. Especially after the start of the ** war in 2023, the joint venture brand has almost no power to fight back.
King Di rises, and Qin sweeps Liuhe
After more than ten years of lying on the salary, he will succeed and his bones will wither.
If we say that in the luxury market, BBA joint venture luxury can still protect itself in the face of the encirclement and suppression of a number of Chinese high-end brands. So in the market below 200,000 yuan, BYD almost single-handedly changed the pattern of the entire market.
In the era of fuel vehicles, even among independent brands, this car company cannot be regarded as the "strongest", and it has become a "leading big brother" in the new energy era. In 2022, BYD surpassed FAW-Volkswagen with sales of 1.8 million units and won the annual sales championship in China's passenger car market, ending the history of long-term dominance of joint venture brands, which has also become a sign of the reversal of the potential energy of Chinese brands and joint venture brands.
In 2023, BYD announced that it would stop producing fuel vehicles, and then kicked off the "Champion Edition" new energy model sweeping the market with the strategy of "the same price of oil and electricity". It has to be said that Changan, Geely, and Great Wall have also increased their respective sales at this stage, but it is BYD that has greatly changed the market pattern. Because BYD's best strategy is really able to put pressure on the joint venture brand, when the BYD Qin PLUS DM-i Champion Edition is within 100,000 yuan, the main sales models of the joint venture brands have to follow up with price reductions.
The former sales kings Lavida, Sylphy, and Corolla, which do not need to start with 1120,000 yuan, can only be forced to fall into the "trap of less than 100,000 yuan" in the end. The Accord and Tian Lai, which are B-class cars at the level of 200,000 yuan, were even sold for 130,000 yuan at the lowest. Until after the Spring Festival in 2024, BYD shouted the slogan of "electricity is lower than oil", and once again offered the "Glory Edition" model to put pressure on the joint venture brand to the limit. Germany and Japan may become the last joint venture player below 200,000 yuan
Almost all opinions agree that the decline of joint venture brands is due to the failure to keep up with the pace of new energy transformation. I think that new energy is just an opportunity, but the awakening of Chinese people's awareness of Chinese brands is the key.
In the past, even if the product power of Chinese brands was stronger than that of joint venture brands, consumers did not trust them. But in the past three years, everyone's confidence in Chinese brands has become stronger and stronger. 7.The 890,000 yuan BYD Qin everyone still thinks it is very strong, in addition to the product power itself is really strong, but also because now everyone believes that Chinese brands are very strong, and buying Chinese brands will not drop the price. New energy has only accelerated the reversal of this concept earlier.
If the user's concept is reversed, it will be difficult to reverse the general trend. Even if the joint venture brand can now rapidly improve its product strength, it is no longer possible to return to the era when it could lie down and make money, and the market share is difficult to reverse significantly. For some joint venture brands that are already in a weak position, it is difficult to stick to it under the impact of repeated wars.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of the four major foreign brands all showed a significant decline in January, of which the market share of German brands was 173%, Japanese 129%, 64%, Korean 15%, other 14%。The Chinese market is the largest market for German brands in the world, so German brands will stick to it until the end. Japanese brands can still support, but with the reduction of share, Japanese brands will inevitably diverge, "two fields and one industry" may continue, and other brands may withdraw one after another. As for the U.S. and South Korean systems, the trend of decline is even more obvious.
If foreign brands can't make money or even lose money in the Chinese market, the Chinese market is not the most important market, and there is no sales, then it is natural for these brands to choose "not to follow", or even give up and quit. This was the case with last year's GAC Mitsubishi and the previous year's JEEP.
Conclusion:
With the strong rise of Chinese brands, the overall sales decline of joint venture brands has become inevitable. This is a normal business law under market competition. At present, the biggest suspense is just how much the final market share of the joint venture will be depressed. For all joint venture brands, the question of where to go in the future is a question, and joint venture brands that choose to remain in the Chinese market need to think clearly as soon as possible about how to break the current state of being led by the nose by Chinese brands.
Text: Youshi Automobile, Old Cannon).
Note: The picture comes from the Internet, the rights belong to the original author, thank you too! This article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent the position of Youshi Auto.