The "national team" shot again, A-shares were strong in the middle of the week, and at the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission strengthened the supervision of the two financial businesses, what signal did this release? As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, what are the important information that investors should pay attention to?
Interpretation:
The mid-week market was strong**, and the turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan, a new high this year. From the perspective of the disk, the "national team" once again entered the market, increasing the scope of ETF** holdings, and the market gradually changed from the CSI 300 and SSE 50 weighted sectors to the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 small and medium-cap sectors, providing incremental funds for the market, comprehensively driving the recovery of market sentiment and helping to improve market confidence.
At the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has strengthened the supervision of the two financial services to help the market rationally return to value. From the perspective of financing, by extending the call time, dynamically lowering the liquidation line, and maintaining the flexibility of the liquidation line, the passive liquidation of investment targets caused by short-term fluctuations will be delayed, which will help stabilize the market. From the perspective of securities lending, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has requested the suspension of the scale of new refinancing of securities, and strengthened regulatory law enforcement, and played a "combination punch" of restricting short-selling, which is conducive to boosting market confidence. In addition, from the perspective of the relationship between the average financing guarantee ratio and the market, as of February 6, the average market guarantee ratio fell to the lowest level since 2019. Combined with historical data, a lower average margin ratio is generally accompanied by the emergence of a market bottom. For example, the lowest average guarantee for financing in October 2018 was 2156%, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out in January 2019**. In this way, the decline in the average financing guarantee ratio will accelerate the arrival of the market bottom, and more importantly, the recovery of the average financing guarantee ratio may be the basis for judging the market reversal.
Data**: wind
Looking forward to the future, the "national team" funds will increase, the capital market policy will continue to optimize, and the market will gradually consolidate the bottom. In addition to the Spring Festival holiday, investors need to pay more attention to the matching between the release of overseas macro data and assets, especially the resilience of inflation and consumption in the United States CPI and retail sales data in January, so as to judge the performance of U.S. bond yields, the pressure on asset valuations, and identify the choice of the market in the growth or value direction after the holiday. More important is the relationship between the US dollar index and commodities. In terms of strategy, it is necessary to think about whether investors who enter the market pessimism and wrong killing zone are long-term investments. Or is it a short-term game? What are the chances of getting this opportunity in the future? It will be the logical idea of the market rotation climbing. Finally, on the occasion of the arrival of the Spring Festival, I wish the majority of investment friends a long and leaping life, a great career, and a wide range of investment resources!
This article only records the views and experiences of Yang Boguang (license number: S0340619060008), and does not represent the position of the institution he works for. The views and statements published do not constitute investment advice to any person or organization and should not be used as a substitute for the independent judgment of investors. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.