Original title: The liquidity of the banking system is reasonable and abundant.
Economic ** reporter Ma Chunyang.
On February 18, the People's Bank of China launched a 105 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation and a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation, and the winning interest rate remained at 18% and 25% unchanged. Since the maturity of MLF this month is 499 billion yuan, the MLF operation this month is actually a small incremental parity renewal.
According to market analysts, the MLF operating interest rate in February continued to "stay put" in line with market expectations. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that the MLF operating interest rate remained unchanged in February, or it is related to factors such as the landing of the RRR cut in the same month, which is expected to drive the loan market interest rate (LPR) to be lowered separately.
The first quarter of 2024 has entered a critical stage of steady growth, and the continuation of MLF will help increase the medium and long-term liquidity of the banking system, support credit growth and the issuance of corporate bonds, and also encourage banks and other financial institutions to actively participate in the resolution of local debt risks in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law through extension, borrowing new to repay the old, and replacement. Wang Qing said that although the RRR cut landed this month, considering that credit and social finance exceeded expectations in January, and the issuance of ** bonds is expected to speed up next, new credit will be at a high level, so the demand for MLF operations by banks has increased. At the same time, the continuation of MLF itself also releases a signal that the policy side will strengthen and stabilize growth, reflecting the total force of monetary policy.
This month's increase in operation volume and price flattening is after the comprehensive RRR cut on February 5, which once again sends a positive signal that monetary policy will increase efforts to stabilize growth and promote development, which will help further stabilize market confidence and boost social expectations. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, said.
Dong Ximiao further said that from the perspective of volume, this is the 15th consecutive month that the central bank has exceeded the MLF. On February 5, the overall RRR was cut by 05 percentage points have released more than 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity, superimposed this month's MLF excess renewal, the central bank continues to inject liquidity into the market, which can effectively supplement the recent market funding gap, ensure that the market liquidity is reasonable and abundant after the Spring Festival, and the financial market runs smoothly.
In the view of many market participants, although the LPR is added on the basis of the MLF interest rate, the MLF interest rate has not changed in February, and the probability of the LPR being flat is high, but combined with the signal released by the central bank's previous external statement, the LPR will still likely decline on February 20.
On January 24, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said at a press conference of the State Council New Office that the current price level is still far from the expected target, and major domestic banks have moderately lowered deposit interest rates in the early stage, and the People's Bank of China has lowered the relending and rediscount interest rates and deposit reserve ratios for small rural support, which will help promote the downward trend of LPR as a benchmark for credit pricing.
From the bank's point of view, the deposit interest rate has been lowered several times and the RRR has been cut across the board, the cost of funds for banks has been reduced, and there is some room for LPR reduction and increase. Historically, there have been three precedents where the MLF rate has remained unchanged but the LPR has fallen. Dong Ximiao introduced.
Pang Ming, chief economist and research director of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, said that the probability of cutting the MLF interest rate and reverse repo rate in the short term is low, but the LPR may be lowered in the same direction as the market interest rate and the central bank's guidance.
The relationship between LPR and MLF interest rates should be comprehensively viewed, and the two represent different interest rate systems, with LPR representing the real economy lending rate and MLF representing the financial market financing interest rate. "CITIC ** Chief Economist Ming Ming believes that in the future, it is advisable to dilute the relationship between LPR and MLF interest rates, compared with MLF interest rates, whether the financing costs of real economic entities can fall has a greater impact on economic growth, and the actual significance of LPR in this regard is stronger. At the same time, whether the LPR can decline depends on whether the cost of funds of banks can fall, and the cost of deposits is an important factor affecting the cost of funds of banks. Since 2022, major domestic banks have lowered deposit rates several times, further opening up the downside of LPR and the space for banks to make profits.
Pang Ming said that it is expected that in the future, the People's Bank of China will continue to fine-tune short-term liquidity through the comprehensive use of a variety of monetary policy tools, which is flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate, dynamic and efficient, effective and effective, to ensure a certain scale and intensity of open market operations, stabilize market liquidity and overall capital supply and demand, and maintain reasonable funds.
*:Economy**.