1. Hot information
[International News].
1. Foreign Exchange Bureau: In December 2023, China's import and export scale of goods and services in the balance of payments was 4,339.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, the export of goods was 2,056.8 billion yuan, the import was 1,646.8 billion yuan, and the surplus was 409.9 billion yuan; The export of services was 228 billion yuan, the import was 407.6 billion yuan, and the deficit was 179.6 billion yuan.
2. United States: In December 2023, the core PCE price index rose by 2 year-on-year9%, the lowest since March 2021. Month-on-month, up 02%, the highest since September 2023.
3. Money markets are pricing in an 80% chance of the ECB's first 25 basis point rate cut in April, compared to 60% ahead of the ECB's statement and U.S. data. Money markets have fully priced in a 50 basis point rate cut by the ECB by June.
4. Bank of France President De Gallo: The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at any time this year, and all options are open at subsequent meetings. The ECB is on the right track to beat inflation, with the deposit rate rising to a record 4%, playing a very important role in reducing underlying inflation.
5. The European Central Bank's monetary policy experts put the eurozone's GDP growth rate in 2024 from the previous **09% to 06%。Eurozone GDP growth in 2025 is up from 15% to 13%。
6. According to data released by the United Nations ** and the Conference on Development (UNCTAD), it is estimated that the volume of the Suez Canal has fallen by 42% in the past two months, and oil tanker traffic and natural gas transportation have also experienced a significant decline.
[Domestic news].
1. The State Administration of Financial Supervision: To implement the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing, it is necessary to give full play to the leading and coordinating role of local governments, strengthen the overall planning of work, refine policies and measures, and promote the precise docking of real estate development enterprises and financial institutions. In accordance with the principle of fairness and justice, the list of real estate projects that can be given financing support should be screened and determined, and sent to financial institutions within the administrative region.
2. China Securities Regulatory Commission: In order to implement the investor-oriented regulatory concept and strengthen the supervision of the lending of restricted shares, the securities lending mechanism has been further optimized after full demonstration and evaluation. The first is to completely suspend the lending of restricted shares; The second is to adjust the market-based declaration of refinancing securities from real-time availability to next-day availability, restricting the efficiency of securities lending and lending. Due to factors such as system adjustments, the first measure will be implemented from January 29, and the second measure will be implemented from March 18.
3. Ministry of Commerce: In 2023, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth will reach 825%。The international market share of exports is stable at about 14%; Outward non-financial direct investment increased by 16 percent in renminbi terms7%。We will pay close attention to the introduction of new policies on foreign trade; Timely report on the work of procurement, standard formulation, investment facilitation and other aspects that are of general concern to foreign-funded enterprises; further implement and expand the network of high-standard free trade zones for the world; Develop "cross-border e-commerce + industrial belt" and encourage traditional foreign trade enterprises to transform into cross-border e-commerce.
4. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2023, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16 percent year-on-year8%。In 2023, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size will decrease by 2 percent compared with the previous year3%, a decrease of 1 compared with the previous year7 percentage points, continuing to maintain a recovery trend.
On the morning of the 26th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a meeting on the deployment of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and Ni Hong, Secretary of the Party Group and Minister of the Ministry, attended the meeting and emphasized that it would accelerate the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, support the development and construction of real estate projects, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership without discrimination, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
From January 25th to 26th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held the 2024 system work conference, which emphasized that it is necessary to highlight the investor-oriented concept and focus on improving the regulatory rules for issuance pricing, quantitative trading, and securities lending; Efforts will be made to enhance the internal stability of the capital market, and promote the acceleration of the implementation of the pilot reform of long-term investment in insurance funds; Promote the inclusion of market value in the assessment and evaluation system of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and study increasing the constraints on low-valued listed companies from the perspective of information disclosure.
Second, the industry dynamics
In December, the steel output of 92 key iron and steel enterprises was 6279590,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 359%；From January to December, the cumulative steel output was 82,562630,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 456%。In December 2023, the crude steel output of 92 key iron and steel enterprises was 5819170,000 tons, down 775%；The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 82,457560,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 279%。In December 2023, the pig iron output of 92 key iron and steel enterprises was 5,634800,000 tons, down 2 percent year-on-year46%；From January to December, the cumulative pig iron output was 74,696690,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 416%。
2. The Joint Office for the Construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle released the "List of Major Projects for the Construction of the Twin-City Economic Circle in the Chongqing Region in 2024" on the 26th. It includes 300 projects in 7 categories, including modern infrastructure, modern industrial system, regional collaborative innovation, Bashu cultural tourism, ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, opening up to the outside world, and public services, with a total investment of about 36 trillion yuan.
3. Shanghai: In 2023, among the industrial strategic emerging industries, the output value of new energy vehicles and new energy industries will increase by 32 year-on-year respectively1% and 213%；The output growth rate of new products such as semiconductor storage disks and 3D printing equipment reached 10x and 294%。
The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 157 over the previous year3%, and the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 103%, and the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 59%, and the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 160%, and the coal mining and washing industry fell by 253%。
3. Overhaul and steel mill information
After research, it was decided that the domestic sales of Baosteel plates** in March 2024 will be adjusted on the basis of February 2024 as follows (unless otherwise specified, the following are excluding tax):
1. Hot rolling: the base price is raised by 100 yuan tons.
2. Thick plate: the base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
3. Pickling: the base price is raised by 100 yuan tons.
Fourth, general cold: the base price increased by 100 yuan ton.
5. Hot-dip galvanizing: the base price is raised by 100 yuan tons.
6. Electrogalvanizing: the base price is raised by 100 yuan tons.
7. Chinalco, zinc, aluminum, magnesium: the base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
8. Aluminized zinc: the base price was raised by 50 yuan tons.
9. High alumina, zinc, aluminum, magnesium: the base price was raised by 50 yuan tons.
10. Color coating: the base price is raised by 50 yuan tons.
Ten. 1. Non-oriented silicon steel: the base price of medium and low grades will be increased by 100 yuan tons, and the base price of high efficiency and high grades will remain unchanged.
Ten. 2. Oriented silicon steel: the base price remains unchanged.
Ten. 3. For details of alloy price increase and coating and coating price increase adjustment, please refer to the ** table in March 2024.
Ten. 4. The above ** adjustment notice shall take effect from the date of promulgation.
Ten. 5. The right to interpret this adjustment notice belongs to the Marketing Center of Baoshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (Baosteel International).
Fourth, downstream information
1. On the 27th, the General Office of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government issued a notice on further optimizing the policies and measures for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Subsequently, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a policy interpretation document, and the existing houses with a construction area of more than 120 square meters under the name will not be included in the accounting of the number of housing units already owned under the name.
2. Jilin Province: In 2023, the transformation of shantytowns in the province will start 1990,000 units, and 1340,000 sets (rooms), and 2640,000 units, and 70,000 rental subsidies were issued. In 2024, it is planned to develop 9,800 units of affordable rental housing and issue housing rental subsidies to 50,000 households.
3. Changsha City, Hunan Province: issued the Notice on Clarifying the Multiples of Personal Loans in 2024, which will come into force on February 1, 2024. At the end of 2023, the personal loan rate of Changsha Housing Provident Fund was 8684%。The personal loan rate is between 85% and 90%, and the loan amount for employees is calculated according to 14 times the sum of the balance of the housing provident fund account of the borrower and his wife.
Same-city, Anjuke: In 2023, the rental market in 40 key cities across the country will recover as a whole, and market supply and demand will rebound sharply year-on-year. The leasing index of 27 cities increased year-on-year. Affordable rental housing has entered the first outbreak stage, of which Shenzhen's affordable rental housing accounts for 55%, the highest among first-tier cities.
5. According to the statistics of the central bank, at the end of 2023, the balance of RMB real estate development loans was 1288 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, the growth rate was 2 lower than the end of the previous year2 percentage points. Personal housing loan balance 3817 trillion yuan, down 16%, the growth rate was 2 lower than the end of the previous year8 percentage points. At the end of 2023, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 5263 trillion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2 lower than that at the end of the previous year5 percentage points.
Haikou City, Hainan Province: Issued a notice on optimizing the housing purchase policy for talents, and the identified high-level talents, high-level talents flexibly introduced and foreign talents with "high-precision and cutting-edge shortages" enjoy the same treatment as local residents in the purchase of commercial housing. Talents who have actually been introduced and worked in Hainan but have not yet settled down, who have paid individual income tax or social insurance in Hainan Province for a total of 12 months or more, and whose family members do not have a house in Hainan, can purchase the first commercial house.
5. Market transactions
[Lecong Steel World Weighbridge Import and Export Index].
On January 28, 2023, the Steel World Weighbridge Shipment Index recorded 48 points, down 14 points, or 23%, from the previous trading day, and down 19 points, or 28., from the same period last week4%；The steel world weighbridge purchase index recorded 68, down 4 points from the previous trading day, or 56%, down 77 points, or 53., from the same period last week1%。Yesterday, the weighbridge purchase index fell, the spot market adjusted, the market transaction weakened, and the trading atmosphere was not good.
At present, the expectations of macro policies are still there, and market merchants remain optimistic about shipments. Although it is in the off-season of traditional steel consumption, the winter storage and replenishment have basically come to an end, and the seasonal demand of the market is weakening. (The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice).