Overview
This month, the industrial wire rod information team surveyed 71 downstream sample enterprises across the country, and according to statistics, the actual purchase volume in January 2024 was 8070,000 tons, an increase of 4 compared with the actual purchase volume in December19% and 7 percent planned for February 2024200,000 tons, down 1074%。According to the survey data, the actual purchase volume in January increased slightly compared with the steel consumption in December, and the planned consumption continued to decline in February, and the demand performance in the off-season reached its peak.
1. Survey of the procurement volume of terminal enterprises
Figure 1: Actual downstream purchases in the past and planned purchases in the next month
The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in January, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 492%, up 02 percentage points, the level of manufacturing prosperity has rebounded. In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises is 504%, up 04 percentage points, higher than the critical point; The PMI for medium-sized businesses is 489%, up 02 percentage points, below the critical point; The PMI for small businesses is 472%, down 01 percentage point, below the critical point. From the perspective of industries, the business activity index of railway transportation, postal services, monetary and financial services and other industries is at 600% and above high prosperity range; The business activity index of the construction industry has retreated. Affected by factors such as low temperature weather in winter and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream production enterprises have entered the off-season.
Second, the planned procurement of different varieties
We conduct data statistics on the sample data procurement varieties are roughly divided into four categories: cold heading steel, wire drawing, B steel and hard wire, and compare the actual purchase volume of each variety in the past and the planned purchase volume of this month, as shown in the figure
Figure 2: Comparison of various purchased varieties of industrial wires
As can be seen in the figure above, the actual purchase volume of cold heading steel in January was 2440,000 tons, with a planned purchase volume of 2 in February360,000 tons, down 356；The actual purchase volume of wire drawing in January was 2830,000 tons, and the planned purchase volume in February is 2550,000 tons, down 973%；The actual purchase volume of B steel in January was 1990,000 tons, and the planned purchase volume in February is 1670,000 tons, down 1608%；The actual purchase volume of the hard line in January was 0770,000 tons, with a planned purchase volume of 0580,000 tons, down 2474%。Judging from the data, the planned consumption of all varieties has fallen, of which the hard line has the largest decline, followed by B steel, looking back on January, a number of steel mills were affected by production profits and order scheduling, and opened maintenance and limited production, among which the reduction of hard lines is the most prominent, and downstream procurement and speculative ** transactions are affected simultaneously. On the other hand, the reason for the decline in the planned amount of consumption in February or due to the situation of the Spring Festival near the market ** did not ship smoothly and excessively compared with last year's Spring Festival, the procurement enthusiasm was obviously insufficient, the traditional holiday was eight days, and the holiday time for small and medium-sized enterprises was 10-15 days, and the reduction of production time The raw material procurement plan is in the normal decline channel.
3. Analysis of downstream standing inventory
Figure 3: Summary of Downstream Standing Inventory
As can be seen in Figure 3, as of early February 2024, the standing inventory of downstream production enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the remaining total inventory of downstream enterprises in the sample was 7280,000 tons, an increase of 0600,000 tons, an increase of 908%。From the perspective of the market, from January to early February, the market is gradually, and downstream production enterprises perceive that in the process of narrow consolidation of raw materials to wide range, the space for industrial materials to move in a short cycle is relatively limited, and medium and large enterprises have increased their own inventory reserves and the risk is still within the tolerable range.
Fourth, the market mentality
Figure 4: Downstream manufacturers' prediction of steel prices this month
According to Figure 4, it is expected that the downstream of *** will account for 23% this month, the bearish companies will account for 24%, and the market will account for 54% this month. Mentality compared with the previous month more bullish companies increased by 5%, combined with the market, the pre-holiday market consolidation weakened, black ** fell sharply, the spot market ** decline is obvious, on the other hand, the post-holiday market needs to break through the previous low point of the possibility of sex, a number of companies said that after the opening of the resumption of the market will still appear in the market ** maintenance range ** stronger likely.
5. Comprehensive analysis
As the first Spring Festival in three years after the epidemic, the domestic festive atmosphere is significantly higher than in previous years, resulting in a super-seasonal decline in domestic demand and a continuous decline in spot transactions. However, corresponding to the domestic is the strong performance of foreign orders, due to the low valuation of domestic finished products, foreign replenishment is more active, exports remain high. On the whole, the pre-holiday profits of steel mills are at a low level, resulting in a low level of hot metal production, and the current inventory is also at a low level under the support of better exports and domestic demand. Therefore, it is expected that the post-holiday accumulation may be lower than in previous years, driven by the favorable domestic important large-scale conferences, the current low ** level is expected to rebound from low valuation to normal level.