Economic Herald reporter Shi Chao.
The Chinese New Year of the Dragon is approaching, and A-shares are also stabilizing and rebounding. Whether the "dragon rises" after the Spring Festival holiday has become the focus of attention of many investors.
The reporter of the Economic Herald found through wind information statistics that the "Spring Festival red envelope" effect of the A** field in the past 10 years is significant. Taking Lu stocks as a whole, since 2014, there have been 8 times on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, that is, the probability of ** reaching 80%.
Of course, in the face of thousands of listed companies in the market, how to find a suitable target layout has also stumped a group of investors. In this regard, analysts from a number of brokerage institutions said that keeping an eye on the industry leader is a current active investment strategy, or bringing excess returns.
For example, Wang Kai, chief analyst of Guoxin ** strategy, said, "under the guidance of economic transformation and policy, the leading enterprises with stable and sustainable profits can maintain long-term competitiveness, and the core assets of high-quality leading enterprises have ushered in a new round of long-term upward movement in the process of 'strong and strong, rooted in the industry, and in line with international standards'." ”
So, what are the leading enterprises in the industry in Lu stocks? The reporter of the Economic Herald sorted it out.
Lu stocks with a market value of 100 billion yuan performed outstandingly.
From the perspective of the industry, leading enterprises play a pivotal role in the evolution of the industrial chain by virtue of their leading role and the agglomeration effect of resources, technology and talents, which can often lead the development direction of the industry and enhance the level of industry competition, and promote the overall upgrading of the industry.
From the perspective of the capital market, the industry leader is also the target of the secondary market, and its market value mostly reflects the comprehensive consideration of the company's industry status, revenue, scientific and technological research and development, etc.
The Economic Herald reporter found that as of February 6, there were 5 companies in Lu stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, and 23 companies with a market value of between 20 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan. Among them, many companies are regarded as leading enterprises in the development of the industry, and their prospects have been frequently favored by institutions recently.
Wanhua Chemical (600309.)SH) ranked first with a market capitalization of 227 billion yuan. The company is a globally operating new chemical materials company, whose business covers polyurethane industry clusters such as MDI and polyether polyols, as well as petrochemical industry clusters, functional chemicals and materials industry clusters, and is known as "chemical Mao" in the capital market. According to the company's performance report disclosed a few days ago, its revenue in 2023 will be 175.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%；net profit was 16.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%。This kind of performance is not easy in the overall downturn of the chemical industry in the same period.
According to the research report of China Securities Construction Investment, the company's many projects are progressing steadily, and the global market share of the existing planned MDI TDI is expected to exceed 35% after it is put into production, and the new materials business continues to grow at a high rate. Therefore, we are optimistic about the company's future performance and believe that the company, as an industry leader, will continue to grow.
Haier Smart Home (600690.)SH) is a leading enterprise in the home appliance industry, with an A** value of 150.1 billion yuan, followed by Wanhua Chemical. In December last year, the company announced that it planned to take 6For a consideration of US$400 million, the company acquired 100% equity and related assets of Carrier Group's main commercial refrigeration business, further expanding product application scenarios and increasing its layout in overseas markets. Huaan** believes that the company's revenue and net profit from 2023 to 2025 are expected to maintain stable growth, and gave a "** rating."
There is also Yankuang Energy (600188SH), Weichai Power (000338SZ), Zhongji InnoLight (300308SZ) ranked behind the above two Lu stocks with 105.8 billion yuan, 104.5 billion yuan and 100.3 billion yuan respectively. They are the leading enterprises in the fields of coal, automotive equipment manufacturing and optical modules.
Yankuang Energy has recently been favored by brokerage institutions such as Kaiyuan**, believing that the company's operation is stable, shareholders have begun to increase their holdings again, and the stock price has undergone a round of adjustment, and its growth and high dividend value have been highlighted; Weichai Power's performance forecast is eye-catching, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 75% to 90% year-on-year last year. Southwest ** believes that the company has seized the structural opportunities in the heavy truck industry and opened up new profit space; Zhongji InnoLight is in the sunrise industry, and China Merchants believes that the high-end optical modules produced by the company grasp the cutting-edge demand of AI, and the repurchase of shares and the increase of dividends also strengthen investor returns, so it is optimistic about its future performance.
It is worth noting that the stock price performance of the five companies since last year has been different, among them, Zhongji InnoLight has ushered in a wave of stock price rises driven by the demand for optical modules for AI, and the increase has still reached 360%; Weichai Power was driven by performance, and its stock price increased by 56%; Yankuang Energy**18%; Haier Smart Home basically keeps it flat. These 4 companies have outperformed the performance of the same period, and only Wanhua Chemical is still in the finishing process after the high level, which has been 20% since last year.
Medium and small styles may perform better after the holiday.
The Economic Herald reporter noticed that combined with the stock price performance, some brokerages also gave a layout strategy. Interestingly, in terms of the layout of the leader, the strategy of the brokerage before and after the holiday can be said to be clear, and the style transformation is very obvious.
For example, Wang Kai said that looking back at the performance of various broad-based indices before and after the Spring Festival from 2013 to the present, the performance of the first-class core assets represented by the CSI 300, SSE 180 and SSE 50 before the Spring Festival is better than the performance after the Spring Festival; Taking the CSI 1000 and CNI 2000 as the observation indicators of small and medium-sized styles, they tend to have a better winning rate and higher excess returns within 30 trading days after the Spring Festival.
Wang Kai believes that this "Spring Festival switch" is mainly driven by short-term fluctuations in liquidity, that is, after the Spring Festival, funds return to the financial system, and liquidity has improved. Therefore, the CNI 2000 and CSI 1000 constituent stocks, which are more sensitive to funds and need more liquidity, tend to have better short-term upward momentum after the holiday.
The Economic Herald reporter noticed that Lu stocks also occupy a large share in the constituent stocks of the CNI 2000 and CSI 1000. Among them, there are Huaming Equipment (002270.) among the constituent stocks of the CNI 2000SZ), Yisheng shares (002458SZ), BAHEAL Pharmaceutical (301015SZ) and other 115 Lu stocks, of which 9 Lu stocks have a market value of more than 10 billion yuan, and some companies are favored by institutions.
Gong Siwen, a researcher at Guoyuan, said that Huaming Equipment, as a tap-changer leader, has laid out three major business sectors with power equipment as the core, and according to the company's performance forecast, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 is expected to be 53.3 billion yuan-56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 483%-55.8%, with strong profitability. Considering the company's dominant position in the industry, it is given a "** rating" in the context of the upward trend of the power grid and the improvement of overseas market demand.
Among the constituent stocks of the CSI 1000 is China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951).SZ), Mori Kirin (002984SZ) and 65 other Lu stocks. Among them, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Sen Kirin, Runfeng shares (301035SZ) and so on have attracted the attention of institutions with their high industry status and global layout.
In the opinion of the interviewees, after the full implementation of the registration system, the advantages of leading stocks will gradually appear, and then reflected in the stock price performance.
Wang Kai also said that with the economic transformation and policy guidance, the improvement of the industry competition pattern will help the competitiveness of leading enterprises to improve. "In the past few years, the production capacity of the upstream cycle industry has been rapidly cleared, the leading market share has been continuously improved, and the pricing power has continued to increase. With a healthier asset-liability structure and easier access to financing channels, leading companies with more stable profitability and sustainability are more likely to remain competitive in the long run. ”
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, believes that in 2024, good companies are expected to usher in opportunities for valuation repair, and the valuation repair of high-quality leading stocks is the main line of investment throughout the year.