A-shares rose sharply this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 485% to 300488 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Composite Index rose by .19%, the Science and Technology 50 Index rose 173%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 652%。
Some high-dividend heavyweights such as banks and coal performed better this week, while other heavyweights took a break for the time being. High dividends*** are associated with larger-than-expected lower interest rates, as this highlights the relative attractiveness of high-dividend companies. This week, high dividends*** may be related to the sharp increase in demand for insurance capital allocation, because this statement is more logical, so it has attracted many investors, including foreign investors.
However, to be specific, the biggest gains this week are small-cap stocks and micro-cap stocks, especially those with the concept of AI. This week, the CSI 2000 index rose 808%, which is much higher than the 0.0 rise of the CSI 500 Index92%。The ** of micro-cap stocks and small-cap stocks is related to the "anomalies" of the previous period, and it is not that the fundamentals of this kind have been significantly improved, and investors should keep this in mind when participating. In the early stage, the quantitative institutions were forced to adjust their strategies and formed a "stampede", and now that this crowded transaction has ended, it is normal for some related ** to have some reverse operation, which generally does not represent a trend reversal.
The ** of A-shares should benefit from the resonance of many factors. The first is the "restoration of confidence", and the new leadership team of the China Securities Regulatory Commission has taken quite a lot of substantive measures to boost market confidence, and the intensity is also very large, and investor confidence will naturally be boosted. The second is that the policy has exceeded expectations, such as the reduction of the LPR interest rate of more than 5 years, which is closely related to the property market at the beginning of this week, which exceeded all expectations.
In addition to the above factors, there may also be some changes in the international financial market in favor of A-shares. For the week, while expectations for the Fed to delay rate cuts remain unchanged, expectations that higher interest rates may eventually push the US into a recession have been strengthened, which has been reflected in the performance of US Treasuries, such as short-term Treasuries outperforming long-term Treasuries.
The Shanghai Composite Index has regained the important 3,000-point mark, which will certainly help boost investor confidence. Judging from historical experience, it is relatively rare for major points to break through at one time, so it is normal for the market to have some ** repetitions next week, and investors can treat it with a normal heart.
In the future, further improvement should be inseparable from two aspects: first, the policy can more vigorously promote the further improvement of the system, and second, the domestic economic recovery has a relatively slightly obvious improvement.
For policy trends, investors can naturally maintain their expectations and believe that the future will be further launched. It is worth mentioning that the two sessions of the National People's Congress will be held in March. According to past experience, this period of favorable policies or news should be in a period of high incidence, and the market will generally react in advance.
In terms of economic fundamentals, there is no shortage of bright spots in the domestic consumption sector during the Spring Festival, and it is unclear whether the good consumption momentum will continue after the holiday. Secondly, the larger-than-expected reduction in interest rates should have some follow-on effects on boosting the property market and the economy, but there will also be some time lag.
In terms of operation, although the short-term stock index may be over-rising, and the amount of energy may not be so abundant on the surface, considering that the high-frequency policy is likely to continue, it is recommended that investors dilute short-term fluctuations and continue to hold shares.
National Business Daily.