This **, I really don't know what to say, it's a big mouth every day.
There is no bottom, and one long black candle is followed by another long black candle, and it falls by 3% every day just like playing.
In just over a month, the micro-cap stock index, which exploded last year, fell by 28%, and I feel sorry for those friends who chased it at a high level.
The mixed** index fell 14%, more than last year's decline, and it was a bitter drop in the hope of a sharp fall after the A-share ink.
Now that ** is coming, it seems that I miss the previous ink a little bit again, from "defending 3000 points" to "looking forward to 3000 points"...
Hey, look at the big guy's reflection and look for confidence
Xia Junjie,
An excellent ** manager who goes to public and private affairs, has had positive returns for 11 consecutive years from 2012 to 2022, with an annualized return of about 15%.
In this wave, he didn't do a good job, compared to the CSI 300, he didn't run out of excess returns, and he also created the largest drawdown since smuggling.
A few days ago, a lot of dry goods were said at the annual strategy meeting, and lazy cats carried a wave
Let's first learn about Xia Junjie's awesomeness from a few data.
(1) The performance ranks high in the same category
He was first in the public offering, and the longest management time ** is "Sino Flexible Configuration", from March 12, 2010 to March 11, 2017, this ** rose by 141 in the hands of Xia Junjie47%, annualized 1342%, ranking 5th out of 128** in the same category.
After that, he went on a private run and made a comeback on August 9, 2017, managing a private placement**. This private placement rose another 160 in his hands8%, annualized 1597%, about 3% in the same category.
(2) Positive returns for 11 consecutive years
Take a look at the annual returns on behalf of **, from 2012 to 2022, for 11 consecutive years, Xia Junjie has been a positive return, even in the year, when the CSI 300 and partial stock hybrid ** index fell by double digits, it was great
However, in 2023, the gold body will be broken, and the **loss will be 156%。
In 2024, as of January 26, ** has fallen by another 362%。
(3) The drawdown control ability is first-class
This is during the public sale, and the drawdown is significantly smaller than that of the CSI 300.
At that time, Xia Junjie's means of controlling the drawdown were mainly timing, and there was a significant decrease in 2013 and the second half of 2015
Before April 2022, the maximum drawdown never exceeded 5%, and in October 2022, the maximum drawdown was "-11."23%", this wave was also beaten down, and the maximum drawdown came to "-1786%”。
Why is Xia Junjie's performance so good?
The answer can be found in his last quarterly report before leaving the public sale:
In the third quarter of 2015, it proposed to "lower the return expectation and welcome the era when absolute return is king", and regarded absolute return as the only goal of investment for a long time in the future;
Prudent and diligent", "cautious" refers to the investment style, and "diligent" refers to the investment attitude.
Next is the key point, reviewing Xia Junjie's operation in 2023(1) The performance in the past six months was not very good
Looking at the picture more directly, since August last year, Xia Junjie's miraculous stunt has disappeared, and the net value trend has begun to be consistent with the CSI 300, almost no excess returns have been created.
In this regard, he said helplessly:"As an investor, what is the most helpless? You never know when you're going to fail, and that's something you can only know after the fact."
(2) Why is the performance so bad?
At the end of 2022, when looking forward to 2023, Xia Junjie made 4 judgments:
1) Optimistic about the low valuation style, especially the medium and special valuation.
This judgment is completely correct, he concluded, which is also one of the core reasons why the portfolio has done better before August 2023, and the excess returns are basically from low valuations**.
2) The new energy industry will go through a painful process of reshuffling and clearing, and this judgment is also correct.
In addition, at the just-concluded strategy meeting, Xia Junjie also said his outlook for new energy:
"Although the new energy industry's ** (product**) has fallen to a relatively low position, it is possible to usher in the second wave only after seeing the industry's production capacity substantially cleared. The sign of a clearing of capacity may be a break in the cash flow of companies in the industry, or a merger."
3) Referring to the post-epidemic consumption recovery experience of the United States and Japan, he is also optimistic about China's consumption recovery in 2023. This judgment is wrong, and the recovery of domestic consumption in 2023 will be lower than expected.
4) Stick to real estate, this judgment is also wrong.
Xia Junjie said that real estate has caused him negative returns for two consecutive years, and he can make up for it by the profits of other industries before, but in 2023, the income of other industries will not make up for the losses of real estate, and the blood loss of real estate is particularly prominent.
Regarding real estate, he admitted that he was wrong and made a mistake in the contradiction between the primary and secondary aspects of the industry.
What is the main contradiction in the real estate industry?
As an industry that has grown for 20 years, once the mid-term adjustment, the adjustment magnitude and intensity will exceed everyone's expectations, so the real estate industry has been stormy in the past two years, which is the main contradiction in the real estate industry.
As for the increase in industry concentration, asset revaluation, and future policy shifts, these have an impact on fundamentals, but they are not the main contradictions at present.
Got the main contradiction wrong, and it was a mistake he made on the property.
However, he did not abandon real estate, not because he did not want to admit his mistake, but believed that after the inflection point of the industry, the real estate industry would provide a very good risk-return ratio, but he was not sure at what point this inflection point would appear.
The other is AI
At the beginning of 2023, Xia Junjie's part of the ** suddenly rubbed into the AI concept and ate a lot of gains, but when he really started to build a position in a Huawei + AI concept stock in the second half of the year, he lost all the way to the position, and gave back all the gains in the first half of the year.
Dragged down by real estate + AI, his performance has been unsatisfactory since August last year.
In the reflection part, there are also many things worth learning from.
(1) Reverence for the market
On the surface, it seems that real estate + AI has dragged down the performance, but at a deeper level, the reasons can also be found from the investment methods and cognition.
Xia Junjie summarized 2 points:
First, preconceived optimism.
At the end of 2022, he was still quite optimistic, thinking that the 3-year epidemic was finally over and he saw hope, plus 2022 was another big bear market, so he thought that 2023 would be a great year, and then he was slapped in the face by reality.
Second, the ability to adapt is insufficient.
In October last year, after he realized that he was too optimistic, he was limited to scale and strategy, and he couldn't make major adjustments, so he went down with **.
(2) Be alert to tail risks, not just a big ticket is safe
For example, in this wave, and in the second half of 2015, when institutions encountered panic redemptions, they may be forced to sell some large tickets.
There are two reasons: first, these large bills have good liquidity and are easier to sell.
Second, for institutions, these big bills are not necessarily core holdings, and the tracking is not very close, and they will not be very confident.
But for other institutions with core holdings, it is equivalent to being smashed, and then forced to sell other **, a negative cycle, and finally everyone falls down together.
Whether it is a large ticket or a small market, there is a great tail risk, and whoever explodes first will not be able to escape.
For example, despite the GJD protection, the SSE 50 still fell below the lowest point in 2018.
(3) Technology stocks are not suitable for the left**
The contrarian strategy on the left is suitable for cyclical industries because you are betting on "mean reversion".
But it is not suitable for the technology industry, first of all, the price of technology products is falling, even if the prosperity can go back, but the profit may not be able to go back; Second, if the old company can't keep up with the direction of the new technology, not only does it not revert to the mean, but it may also be eliminated.
Therefore, after he invests in domestic technology companies, he will focus on the innovation cycle and customer structure of the company's products.
(4) The shortcomings of the contrarian strategy
He previously believed that the contrarian strategy had two shortcomings: 1) it may not be able to outperform others in the later stage of the bull market; 2) When the market structure is very differentiated, it may also underperform in stages.
After this wave, he feels that the contrarian strategy still has a shortcoming - it may also underperform in the later stage of the bear market.
Because the contrarian strategy requires "buying more and more", the bear market has fallen so much, ** has already been added, and if it falls again, it will be very painful, but there is no way but to survive.
Here is also an opportunity to talk about the perception of the lazy cat,
1) This wave of adjustment does exceed expectations, the people like to decide according to the valuation percentage**, if this strategy is carefully implemented, it should have been bought into a heavy position, and then stubbornly resisted this critical blow, losing last year's money in a month.
Miserable! What then?
In fact, there is no better way, but to boil, this position is not a wise choice.
As for increasing positions, adding positions will help to return to the cost faster, but it will also destroy the little confidence and patience left, and where to go is also determined according to one's psychological endurance.
2) Fear the market and don't go to leverage. From "falling out of value" to "** needs catalysts, it also takes time, and in between, anything can happen." After "low valuation and big decline", it may not necessarily be **, or it may be **, or fall again, fear the market, and control ** at the level where you can sleep.
3) Technology stocks may really not be suitable for the left side**, diversify the allocation, not only hang one industry, nor bet on one style and one strategy.
There is also a direction that the big guy is optimistic aboutLooking forward to 2024, Xia Junjie made these judgments:
(1) ** may outperform the undermarket
There are 3 logics:
First, mean reversion, the small market has continued to outperform in the past two years, and there is a possibility of mean reversion;
Second, the fundamentals of small-cap stocks are not much better than those of ** stocks, and the dominance of the past 2 years has been pushed up by quantitative funds, and once the incremental funds are lost, the style may be reversed.
Third, from the perspective of the PB-ROE valuation framework, the ** stocks represented by the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are relatively undervalued, and they are more optimistic about the future.
(2) Stick to real estate
Drawing on the experience of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, with the gradual liquidation of small and medium-sized real estate developers, the market share of the industry leader has increased significantly.
At the same time, the leading company has also changed its aggressive business strategy in the past, pursued financial stability, the debt ratio has dropped sharply, the cash flow has improved, the entire industry has returned to the track of benign development, and the stock price of the leading company has also risen dozens of times.
Although it is not known when the real estate inflection point will appear, the risk-return ratio after the inflection point is very good, and the allocation to real estate will be retained.
(3) The Internet as a whole is undervalued, and there is an opportunity for valuation repair
Whether it is food, clothing, housing and transportation, or education and entertainment, the Internet has been deeply integrated into it.
Although the industry has changed from "high growth" to "low growth", the valuation has also come down, and it is now basically the lowest valuation level in history, and the Internet sector as a whole is undervalued.
Even if you don't look at it as a growth stock, pricing it as a value stock is undervalued. In addition, Internet companies can also bring some growth by expanding their boundaries, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and there is an opportunity for valuation repair in 2024.
(4) Consumption will recover, but the paradigm will be different
Consumption is not only related to income, but also to expectations and confidence. At present, residents are more willing to save money than to spend, which is related to low expectations and confidence.
However, life is limited, consumption cannot be postponed indefinitely, and after confidence is restored, it will still recover, but the paradigm will be different, and it will usher in a more rational consumption era, and those consumer goods that are cost-effective, can provide better functionality and practicality, will slowly stand out.
To put it simply, it is what Jiao Wei said, from "consumption upgrading" to "consumption grading", from "consumption face" to "consumption lining".
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.