Entering 2024, the Il-76 military aircraft was attacked by Rashomon, the Ukrainian armed forces changed generals, and the control of the important town ......of Donetsk changed handsA series of events have once again drawn people's attention to the front line of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.
On the second anniversary of the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the question that many people are most concerned about is: how long will Russia and Ukraine fight? Will the inflection point of the situation occur? When will the dawn of peace come?
Regarding the trend of the Ukraine crisis and its impact on the global situation, ** specially invited Liu Ying, director and researcher of the cooperative research department of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University, Zhang Hong, researcher of the Institute of Russia, East Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Chen Yurong, researcher of the Institute of Eurasian Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, to solve the puzzle.
The military stalemate continues
Russia and Ukraine "lost a lot".
Wars, declining populations, and economic recession ......As the "breadbasket" of Europe, large swathes of black soil in Ukraine have become scorched earth, and some industrial cities have been reduced to rubble.
A number of experts noted that Ukraine "may be stuck in the most difficult period in two years." Due to the huge losses of both sides in positional warfare and war of attrition, coupled with the delay in the arrival of Western military aid, Ukraine is facing increasing difficulties in the military confrontation.
At the same time, Russia has lost a lot in this crisis.
There was a loud ** sound in Moscow, Ukrainian drones flew to the city, and unmanned boats raided the Russian Black Sea Fleet ......The intervention of high-tech means such as Starlink and drones has dealt a big blow to Russia.
In this two-year-long military stalemate, both Russia and Ukraine have paid a heavy price. Chen Yurong said.
Recently, the control of Avdeyevka, an important town in Donetsk, has changed hands, causing widespread concern from the outside world. After the Ukrainian army announced the withdrawal of the place, Russia's Putin quickly congratulated the Russian army on its important victory, while Ukraine's Zelensky admitted that he was facing an "extremely difficult" situation on the front line. Has the situation reached a new turning point?
In this regard, Liu Ying pointed out, "The change of hands of Avdeyevka shows from the military level that after nearly two years of attrition, Russia's comprehensive national strength advantage over Ukraine has become more and more obvious, and the Ukrainian army cannot maintain a long front in the case of a continuous shortage of follow-up soldiers and equipment, and is forced to take the initiative to retreat." ”
At the level of politics and international relations, the advancement of the front is positively correlated with Russia's initiative in the international arena, and at the same time, whether there will be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine depends on the game between Russia and Europe and the United States. Liu Ying thinks.
** years, big changes
Russia and Ukraine "will find it difficult to usher in real peace talks".
Another big variable in the situation in Ukraine is **. In 2024, Russia and the United States will both usher in the first year, adding many variables to the Ukraine crisis.
Chen Yurong and Liu Ying pointed out that in the short term, it is difficult to resolve the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine, and it is unlikely that there will be immediate peace talks. Moreover, 2024 coincides with the first year, and the variables that affect the peace talks will appear intensively.
From Ukraine's point of view, this crisis is a 'card' for Zelensky. Chen Yurong pointed out that according to the plan, Ukraine should be held in March 2024**, but in the current wartime situation, the election may not be held.
She also believes that "for Putin, taking the important town of Avdeyevka is the 'best achievement' for him to seek re-election." Russia needs to take advantage of the victory and will not necessarily stop to negotiate peace with Ukraine. ”
For the United States, which is also facing the best in 2024, many experts believe that the strong military strength of the United States may have a greater impact on the trend of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, but the inadmissibility of the political situation in the United States will add variables to the already complex situation.
Judging from the current statement, Biden and Trump's positions on the Ukraine issue are very different, with Biden insisting on "continuing to support Ukraine to contain Russia"; Trump, for his part, believes that "there is no need to support Ukraine."
The United States has been the biggest beneficiary of the crisis, both reaping enormous economic gains and tightening its grip on European countries. "These are all achievements that will help Biden be re-elected in 2024, and in this case, he will not be able to stop the Ukraine crisis." ”
Liu Ying pointed out that although Trump is currently opposed to aiding Ukraine, this is only a campaign slogan, and it is doubtful whether it can be truly realized.
Zhang Hong also said that if there is no major internal crisis in the Western world, before the end of the United States in 2024, and even said that during Putin's (future) term, diplomatic and military confrontation and confrontation between Russia and the West will exist for a long time, and the room for improvement in relations is quite small, and it can be said that it will be difficult for Russia and Ukraine to usher in real peace negotiations.
This state of affairs, similar to the "Cold War", will gradually "cut" the global pattern. If the Ukraine crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are not brought under control in the short term, the world could become more chaotic and more **,Zhang concluded.
Europe is mired in multiple anxieties
Trust deficit "frozen" relations between major powers
The Ukraine crisis has been mired in a quagmire for two years, and the dilemma is difficult to solve, which also reflects the unprecedented global geopolitical game between the United States and the West and Russia.
Zhang Hong believes that the strategic confrontation between Russia and the West is becoming protracted and solidified. In particular, it may be seen from the theme of whether the world is moving towards a "lose-lose" situation at the recent Munich Security Conference, and Europe, which has been drawn into the Ukraine crisis, has fallen into multiple anxieties in terms of diplomacy and security.
It is preferring to suffer oneself rather than allowing the enemy or competitor to benefit, and this is becoming one of the policies that Western countries are thinking about. This trend reflects that Europe is not only in a state of panic, but also increasingly "Cold War" in its thinking about the global order, global issues, and regional hotspots, Zhang Hong pointed out. This shows that the geopolitical crisis has caused substantial damage to global cooperation and globalization.
He made an in-depth analysis and said that Russia and the entire Western world now have zero interaction and no communication, and are in a state of isolation and marginalization. Whether it is the Munich Security Conference or the OSCE summit, the United States, Germany, France, and other countries have even refused to share the stage with their Russian representatives, which shows that the two sides have fallen into a deep state of "trust deficit" and can be said to have entered a "frozen" relationship between major powers.
Zhang Naiyue, Wei Chenxi, Meng Xiangjun).