In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has not been miserable, after 21 years of highlight, it is due toOvercapacity, weak foreign market demand, and overseas tariff countermeasuresand other reasons have led to the sluggishness of the industry, coupled with the intensification of competition in the industry by all kinds of leading enterprises, leading enterprises have fought a battle to maintain their market share, and the industry is generally higher than nearly 50%, and some leaders are even nearly 80%.
But with the recent ** reportDownstream PV module factories are about to increase prices (expected to rise by 2 cents), and some module versions are already in short supplyThe stabilization and rebound of ** has brought photovoltaic back to the public eye, and many investors have begun to expect the reversal of the plight of photovoltaics. So, has the reversal of the PV industry really arrived? What will the future hold? Pay attention to it, this article will use a more objective perspective to give you an in-depth analysis of the current situation and possible future performance of the photovoltaic industry.
If you want to **whether the photovoltaic industry has reached the bottom**, you first need to understand why the photovoltaic industry has fallen so badly in the past two years!
In fact, in the past few years, the photovoltaic industry has been falling and falling, the root causeIt is not because of the deterioration of the fundamentals of the industry, but because the increase in previous years was too high and too much growth was overdrawn. There is a characteristic in A-shares, when an industry is the best, it is usually various institutions, ** huddles to boast of performance expectations, crazy to raise the valuation of the industry, and then the industry began to expand production, and even companies in unrelated industries entered the game across the border, which immediately led to overcapacity in the industry, dilution of profits, and then both performance and valuation declined, and the overall decline of the sector reached 30%, and the decline of various leaders in the industrial chain reached 50% is the norm, and even the decline of % is not uncommon. This kind of story has been born in A-shares, such as liquor and medicine in 19-20 years, new energy in 21 years, and AI in 22 years, which we have long been accustomed to.
In addition, the overall weakness of the A** field in the past two years has also had a great impact on the photovoltaic industry. In this context, the photovoltaic industry has sufferedPhased overcapacity and foreign interest rate hike cycles have led to weak PV market demandand other problems, so that the entire industry is facing tremendous pressure. And, because of ChinaPV modules are in the nIn order to digest the p-type inventory, the merchant began to carry out large-scale price reduction activities, which undoubtedly brings a lot of constraints to the growth of demand. Under the influence of many factors, the natural stock price has suffered a heavy fall.
Although the global PV installed capacity has maintained a significant growth rate in 23 years (with a growth rate of more than 50%), the driving force behind this growth is mainly the Chinese market. In contrast, the growth rate of demand in overseas markets has declined significantly. Moreover, the problem of overcapacity of photovoltaic modules is still severe. The total demand of the global PV industry in 2023 is expected to be more than 400 GW, however, the total capacity of the module segment is as high as 1,000 GW. Even if demand grows by 20% in '24, it will be less than 500 GW, which means that PV modules are still closeHalf of the capacity is in a state of overcapacityThis has caused many investors to worry.
But in fact, after in-depth research by Xiao K, the main problem of PV overcapacity is likely to be alleviated in 24 years, rather than further aggravated, mainly due to the following reasons:
The interest rate hike cycle in Europe and the United States will end this year, stimulating a rebound in overseas demand
The United States and Europe are likely to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts this year. This is because the inflation rate that has plagued interest rate cut expectations has fallen significantly (economists expect inflation to fall from 6. to 6 in 2024).1% to 26%), while an inflation rate below 3% is an acceptable level of moderate inflation in economic theory.
The larger-than-expected downward trend in inflation suggests that the rate hike cycle is likely to be significantly shortened. As an asset-heavy industry, most of the construction funds of photovoltaic power plants are loans. If the US long-term lending rate falls below 5%, it will have a huge and widespread impact on PV installations. According to this, we can foresee,This year's interest rate cut window may trigger an inflection point in the export of the photovoltaic industry, stimulating a sharp correction in overseas installed demand.
2.The rapid iteration of AI models has greatly increased the demand for clean electricity
With the rapid advancement of technology, artificial intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly important role in today's world. The rapid iteration of AI models is driving the rapid growth of power demand. With the continuous emergence of various AI models, the demand for data processing capabilities is also rising, and as the infrastructure of data processing, the demand for power in data centers is showing a first-class growth trend. According to statistics, in 2017 alone, data centers in the United States consumed more than 90 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, equivalent to the power generation of 34 large coal-fired power plants. Globally, data centers consume around 416 TW of power, accounting for 3% of the world's total electricity generation, and this proportion is rising.
Altman, a pioneer in artificial intelligence, once saidIn the context of the gradual failure of Moore's Law, the computing power required for AI models is expected to double every 100 days, which means that in 5 years, AI will need more computing power than it currently does by 1 million times.
According to Tirias Research**, the power consumption of data centers will reach 4,250MW by 2028, an increase of 212 times compared to 2023! This undoubtedly means clean electricity energy led by photovoltaics3The 0 era is coming.
To sum up, the growth of PV demand is far from reaching the ceiling.
The PV industry has been going on for more than a year, and the stock price valuations of leading companies have fallen to very low levels. But all this just provides the basis for the market **. Everyone is eager for the recovery of the market, and only one reason is needed to ignite their enthusiasm. The underestimation of leading photovoltaic companies, coupled with their influence on the market, makes a little good news in the industry a reason for people to go long. It's like a dry firewood that burns at a point.
Next, as the good news of the photovoltaic industry and even the entire new energy industry continues to emerge, the market trend will become more and more active. Investors need not be surprised by the rapid changes in the market, because this is the game of capital markets. Positive and negative can be generated out of thin air. But these are only the surface of the market, the key is the direction of the market.
In addition, it is enough to remember that the fundamentals of the PV industry have been positive for a long time.
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