Report Producer:GF**
The following is an excerpt from the original report.
First, from the prosperity of the category to the rise of the brand, the share of soy sauce wine is expected to increase.
1) The interpretation of industrial logic brings about the replacement of flavors, and behind the rise of Moutai leading the sustainable development of soy sauce liquor is the interpretation of industrial economic logic, and this trend is expected to continue in the future. From the perspective of the development history of the liquor industry. Before the reform and opening up in the 70s, liquor in the era of planned economy was priced and distributed by the government, and Moutai was the first brand because of its status as a national liquor. Since the 70s, there have been two rounds of changes in the dominant flavor type in the liquor industry.
1) From the 1970s to the 1980s, the production and income of light-flavored liquor accounted for more than 70%. Mainly due to the scarcity of food at that time, the low cost of fragrant brewing, the high yield of liquor, and the high cost performance to seize the market, the fragrant Fenjiu has also become the industry leader;
2) From the 1990s to the beginning of the 21st century, the production and income of strong flavor liquor accounted for more than 70%. On the one hand, because the grain output has risen sharply at that time, the Sichuan strong fragrance liquor enterprises led by Wuliangye have gained consumer preference with a richer taste, on the other hand, the country has liberalized the control of famous liquor since 1988, Wuliangye has raised prices many times under the leadership of the then leader Wang Guochun, and in 1994, it surpassed Moutai in one fell swoop and became the highest famous liquor, ranking first in the high-end liquor brand for more than ten years of the current;
3) After 1998, Moutai began to gradually start the channel market-oriented reform, and in 2008, it surpassed Wuliangye and returned to the position of the first brand of liquor. Since 2016, after the recovery of the liquor industry, the soy sauce liquor industry has once again entered a period of rapid development under the leadership of Moutai, and the taste of soy sauce liquor is more intense, the taste is stronger than that of strong fragrant liquor, and the consumer group is sticky.
The process of strong fragrance replacing light fragrance and sauce fragrance replacing strong fragrance conforms to the following two laws: (1) The change of fragrance share is often driven by the industry leader, and the dominant fragrance type is consistent with the industry leader. (2) The process is becoming more and more complex, the taste is getting richer and richer, and the stickiness of consumers is stronger. The sauce flavor process is complex, and the pricing center is generally higher than other flavor types, but the richness of the taste obtained is also higher, indicating that consumers are willing to pay higher in order to obtain a richer taste after the income level is improved.
The overflow of demand from leading Moutai has led to the sustainable development of soy sauce liquor. The core opinion leaders in the liquor industry have a consumption-leading role for others. Due to the special brewing process of Moutai, its available sales in that year generally depend on the production of base liquor of Moutai four years ago, and the special topography of Moutai Town makes the expansion of Moutai's production capacity have certain bottlenecks, and the supply is obviously limited. There is no shortage of a large number of Moutai consumers and enthusiasts, who will drive other consumers to try sauce-flavored liquor. Some of the business needs of soy sauce liquor will be migrated to the same category of liquor, and the cost-effective soy sauce liquor brand has undertaken the public demand for the "flat replacement" of soy sauce flavor, and the demand overflow of the leading Moutai has led the sustainable development of soy sauce liquor.
2) Sauce flavor consumers are sticky, and the high-end image caters to the trend of consumption upgrading.
1. The flavor of the sauce is aggressive, and the taste is aggressive, and the consumer stickiness is strong.
According to China.com, there are more than 40 kinds of esters and 1,600 kinds of aroma components in soy sauce wine, and the richness and richness of the taste are the most flavorful types of liquor, which makes the taste of soy sauce wine more aggressive and irreversible. Outside of the liquor industry, spicy as a dietary preference was originally confined to some provinces in China, but has now spread to all parts of the country, with spicy foods such as hot pot, crayfish, spicy fragrant pot and duck neck growing rapidly. The aroma characteristics of soy sauce wine consolidate the taste loyalty of consumers, and this positive cycle between taste and category ensures the strong consumer stickiness of soy sauce wine.
2 Sauce flavor caters to the trend of consumption upgrading, and is easier to create a high-end image than other flavors.
The number of consumers corresponding to sub-high-end and above liquor is expected to continue to increase. (1) The size of the consumer group: the number of middle-class and above with high consumption capacity in China is still steadily increasing. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit's "Outlook for Chinese Consumers in 2030", from 2015 to 2030, the number of people with the middle class and above in China will increase from 13.2 billion people, up to 48 billion people, with a CAGR of 899%。(2) Consumer income: The income level of middle- and upper-middle-income people in China is still steadily increasing. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2013 to 2022, the income growth rate of upper-middle-income households and high-income households among urban residents in China was at a relatively high level. Therefore, the consumer groups corresponding to sub-high-end liquor and above in the liquor industry are still steadily expanding. From 2018 to 2022, the proportion of high-end and sub-high-end liquor revenue increased from 21% and 8% to 29% and 15% respectively, and the total growth of the liquor industry will slow down in the next three years, and the structural prosperity will continue. The trend of consumption upgrading in the liquor industry remains unchanged, and the soy sauce liquor positioned in the sub-high-end and above is in line with this trend.
The soy sauce wine process is complex, the production cycle is long, and the price is high, which strengthens the high-end awareness of consumers. Compared with other flavored liquors, sauce-flavored liquor not only takes longer to brew, the process is more complex, and the yield is lower. According to Fanjiao, authentic Daqukun sand sauce liquor often adopts the complex distillation technology "12987" process, from the input of raw materials to the output of the base liquor, it needs to go through two feeding, nine times of cooking, eight times of cooling, and seven times of picking, following the "four highs and two longs" (high-temperature koji-making, high-temperature accumulation, high-temperature fermentation, high-temperature distillation; The traditional process of long production cycle and long storage time, according to the three typical bodies of sauce fragrance, mellow sweetness and cellar bottom, and different grades and different rounds, are stored in the warehouse and loaded into the jar for type storage, and the factory is hooked. The production cycle of base liquor is about one year, and the storage time needs to be at least three to five years, and the yield rate is much lower than that of other flavor types, which makes it easier for consumers to have high-end associations with soy sauce liquor, and strengthens the perception that soy sauce liquor is of higher quality and higher value. Therefore, the main products of most soy sauce liquor companies are positioned at sub-high-end and above prices, which also happens to cater to the trend of consumption upgrading in the liquor industry.
Scarcity raises the culture of soy sauce production areas, which is expected to counter the ecological scarcity of the "old famous wine" system to support the scarcity of soy sauce production areas, and strengthen the barriers to competition. Since the production and storage cycle of soy sauce wine is more than 3-5 years before it is released, the flavor of the wine is constantly affected by microorganisms and trace elements in the environment, and interacts with and grows during the winemaking process, from the water, materials, and air that surrounds it at all times. Therefore, it is the Chishui River production area with its unique scarcity environment that can create the most authentic Daqu soy sauce liquor. From the perspective of water quality, the Chishui River is one of the best river water bodies in China, and is the only first-class tributary in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River without a dam. From the perspective of raw materials, according to Moyu, the traditional Daqukun sand wine process must be made of "Moutai red tassel sorghum" produced in the middle reaches of the Chishui River as raw materials, because: Its high amylopectin content (more than 90%) is conducive to multiple rounds of roasting in the sand return process, can withstand multiple cooking, and can meet the seven times of wine extraction in the unique art of soy sauce wine; Its tannin content is moderate (about 2%), and the precursor substances of high-quality soy sauce liquor such as catechuic acid, vanillin, ferulic acid and other high-quality soy sauce flavors are formed through the traditional soy sauce aroma process, and finally special aromatic compounds and polyphenols are formed in soy sauce wine. From the perspective of air, the Chishui River Basin is surrounded by mountains, the perennial wind speed is slow, the lush vegetation in the valley brings fresh air and negative oxygen ions, and the unique quiet wind climate creates favorable conditions for the slow flow and sedimentation of microorganisms in the air.
At the same time, due to the local promotion of the standardization of sauce-type production areas and the gradual tightening of the issuance of licenses, the advantages of the production area will gradually form barriers in the future, and the soy sauce wine enterprises in the Chishuihe production area will have obvious competitive advantages compared with other production areas in the future.
In the future, the geographical indication right of the soy sauce wine production area will be further highlighted, which is expected to counter the traditional "old famous wine" system. Major liquor companies continue to learn the concept of wine estates, and clarify the distinction between liquor producing areas according to the geographical environment, accumulated temperature, rainfall, soil composition and other factors between different liquor producing areas, and then compete with the 17th "old famous liquor" system.
Take wine as an example, the world's well-known wine products are all from well-known production areas, mainly distributed in 30-50 degrees north latitude and south latitude, such as Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Champagne in France; Veneto and Tuscany in Italy; Napa Valley in the United States, etc. According to the world of red wine, one of the most famous wine regions is Bordeaux in France, which has nearly 1230,000 hectares of vine cultivation, accounting for 25%, producing nearly 700 million bottles of wine per year, made from well-known grape varieties such as Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot. Today, Bordeaux is synonymous with high-end wines and a world-class GI brand. Eight of the world's 10 most popular wines published by the World Wine Network come from Bordeaux. Geographical indications help to increase the recognition and recognition of products when they are sold, thereby improving the competitiveness and level of products in the market, and the awareness of Chishuihe authentic sauce wine will be further deepened in the hearts of distributors and consumers. With the opening of Moutai and Wuliangye and the continuous growth of soy sauce liquor brands, the production area culture of soy sauce liquor will gradually mature, thus creating a new production area system to counter the traditional "old famous liquor" system, which will help soy sauce liquor companies re-establish the brand order in the liquor industry, and is expected to occupy the minds of consumers with a high-end image and have a positive impact on the future development of soy sauce liquor.
The "older the older the more fragrant" soy sauce wine strengthens the investment attribute and naturally has a high-end tonality. The amount of koji used in the production of sauce-flavored Daqu liquor is the first in the amount of koji used in various flavored liquors, the larger the amount of koji, the higher the protein content, the higher the protease activity, the more high-grade alcohols are generated, and at the same time, more protein in koji-making wheat can be decomposed to produce a large number of amino acids. In the process of aging, fusel and aldehydes that affect the taste will slowly volatilize over time, reducing the pungency and smoothing the taste. Ethanol and acids will slowly undergo esterification reactions to produce esters with aromatic odors, which can increase the flavor and improve the aroma of the wine after a long storage time. Moutai leads the investment attribute of soy sauce liquor, and the older the soy sauce liquor, the more fragrant it is, and the better the quality of the soy sauce liquor, which also meets the needs of consumers for investment and collection; At the same time, the scarcity of resources and raw material resources and the small output of soy sauce wine production areas further strengthened its scarcity attributes. Therefore, soy sauce wine is more suitable for long-term collection investment, and products suitable for collection investment naturally have a high-end tonality, which can reach a consensus of "high-end products" among consumers.
3) From the prosperity of the category to the rise of the brand, the penetration rate of soy sauce wine continues to increase.
1. Leading categories from rough to subdivided, from single to rich.
Since 2017, many soy sauce wine brands have leveraged Moutai to associate with high-end, and in 2019, the soy sauce wine craze broke out, Moutai led the sauce flavor category to bloom, and the sauce wine took advantage of the situation to start personalized brand building, and the sauce flavor was further refined into Qian sauce and Sichuan sauce. From the perspective of the development process of strong fragrance, under the leadership of Wuliangye, a strong fragrance faucet, strong flavor liquor has developed more diversified flavor branches: multi-grain strong flavor Wuliangye, single grain strong flavor Luzhou Laojiao, compound strong fragrance Jiannanchun, and JAC light and elegant strong fragrance Yanghe Dream Blue series. In the early stage, the taste and craftsmanship of soy sauce liquor were close to Moutai as the focus of product promotion, and the leading leader promoted the standardization of soy sauce and flavor categories, which was conducive to the early spread of flavor culture. With the improvement of the brand power of soy sauce and liquor enterprises and the further release of the advantages of the production area, the degree of brand refinement, production area refinement and taste refinement will be deepened, and the different needs of more consumers in the sauce category will be further satisfied.
2 In 2021, the soy sauce wine craze will rationally ebb and flow, and the operation of small and medium-sized soy sauce wine enterprises will be under pressure.
Since mid-2021, affected by real estate events and slowing economic growth, consumption scenarios such as business investment and banquet gifts have decreased, and the overall demand for liquor has been under pressure. Due to the previous stage, the batch price of soy sauce wine began to fall, and some high-end and sub-high-end soy sauce and wine companies due to the investment expansion in 2020 and 2021, the superimposed channel hoarding was too much, and the dynamic sales were damaged. At the same time, the state supervision has been strengthened, and some small and medium-sized soy sauce and wine enterprises have been cleared. According to the Quantu Sauce and Liquor Studio, in 2022, small and medium-sized soy sauce and liquor enterprises will be put into production and reduced by one-third, and the sales model based on OEM customization will lead to a halving of sales, and the operation of small and medium-sized soy sauce liquor enterprises will be under pressure.
3. The leading soy sauce and liquor companies demonstrate their brand power, and the soy sauce liquor has risen from category prosperity to brand rise.
1) Compared with other flavor types, the supply side of sauce flavor is more concentrated, which is conducive to supporting brand power. From the supply side, most of the non-sauce head liquor companies are state-owned enterprise holdings, under top-down growth pressure, even in the context of poor recovery of terminal sales, they often choose to press goods to complete the growth task, which may eventually lead to dealer selling, collapse, and damage to the brand power of wine companies. As a rising star in the liquor industry, soy sauce liquor has been driven by Moutai, and the regionality of the supply side is strong, and the head soy sauce liquor companies have a decisive impact on the volume and price of the industry. For example, according to Yunjiu Toutiao, Langjiu has actively controlled sales since 2019, proposed to "ensure the absolute benignness of merchant inventory" in 2022, and made it clear in 2023 that Qinghualang will not increase; Many small and medium-sized wine companies will take the initiative to shrink the scale of Xiasha in 2023 to cope with the adjustment of the industry. Moutai has also claimed on many occasions that it will not blindly expand and maintain its scarcity, which shows that the pattern of soy sauce wine on the supply side is better than that of other flavor types. The flexible supply model is conducive to improving the first-class management and control ability of the soy sauce distillery, and then supporting the brand power.
2) Famous soy sauce wine companies take the initiative to exert their brand power and continue to lead the development of the category. One of the major characteristics of the development of the soy sauce wine category is that the soy sauce wine companies with famous wine genes take the initiative to break through the brand mindset, carry out marketing and publicity with consumers as the core, and educate consumers to understand and agree with the liquor flavor culture based on the base wine, cellar pool, production area, etc., which is conducive to the long-term growth of the soy sauce wine category. According to Yunjiu Toutiao, i Moutai currently has more than 40 million registered users, with cumulative sales of more than 23 billion yuan, accounting for more than 70% of the increase in direct sales channels. Langjiu: According to the wine industry, Langjiu invested 20 billion yuan to build the Langjiu Manor located on the south bank of the Chishui River, and invited China's outstanding entrepreneurs and social celebrities to visit and study many times, tackling the core consumer groups, and making the circle consumption concept of soy sauce wine deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Zhenjiu: According to the 21st Century Business Herald, Zhenjiu invested 9 billion yuan to build Zhenjiu Manor, and also used member clubs and other ways to create a soy sauce wine consumption circle culture, reflecting that soy sauce wine enterprises with famous wine genes take the initiative to exert brand power and lead the brand prosperity.
4. The leading soy sauce and wine enterprises have sunk, and the penetration rate of soy sauce wine in some provinces has increased rapidly. Due to the mainstream positioning of soy sauce liquor as a sub-high-end and above ** band, there are no other mainstream major items in this ** belt except Moutai Prince Liquor before 2023.
After the ebb of the "soy sauce wine fever" in 2021, the head wine companies began to sink the ** belt. According to the Beijing News, Xijiu will launch "Yuanxijiu" with a price of 100 200 yuan in February 2023; According to Xinhuanet, Moutai Group Health Liquor Company will launch "Taiyuan" at the same price in March 2023; According to *** in November 2022, Langjiu resumed offline sales of Lang brand Langjiu; According to the new financial **, Guotai will restart Huaijiu in September 2022, focusing on the mass consumption belt of about 300 yuan, and the layout of the whole brand sauce wine enterprise has gone further. With the sinking of the leading soy sauce wine enterprises, the acceptance of the taste of soy sauce wine across the country has further increased, and the penetration rate of soy sauce wine in Henan, Guangdong, Fujian and Shandong markets has increased rapidly, continuing to squeeze the share of strong fragrance. At the same time, in major provinces such as Sichuan and Hubei, where liquor is produced and marketed, and in areas with developed commercial activities such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places, the atmosphere of soy sauce wine is still rising, and there is great potential for the penetration rate of soy sauce wine in the country to increase in the future.
4) It is estimated that the CAGR of soy sauce wine will reach 12% from 2022 to 2025, and the penetration rate will reach 40% in 2025
In 2025, the scale of the soy sauce and wine industry is expected to reach 29847.4 billion yuan, 2022-2025 CAGR can reach 1243%。According to Quantu Studio, the scale of soy sauce wine in 2022 will be 210 billion yuan, and it is expected that the total scale of soy sauce wine is expected to reach 2,984 in 20257.4 billion yuan, with a CAGR of up to 12 from 2022 to 202543%: Among them, the scale of ultra-high-end soy sauce wine is 16683.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 15 in 2022-202566%；The scale of high-end soy sauce wine is 2841.8 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13 in 2022-202593%；The scale of sub-high-end soy sauce wine is 5435 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 17 in 2022-202542%；The size of the mid-range soy sauce wine is 4887.1 billion yuan, with a CAGR of -0 in 2022-202534%。
Ultra-high-end: The ** belt Moutai occupies a dominant position, and there is no substantial competitor, we estimate the scale of ultra-high-end ** with sauce flavor liquor represented by Moutai, and it is expected that the sales volume of Moutai in 2022-2025 will be 819%/6.90%, the scale of ultra-high-end ** with sauce flavor wine will reach 1668 by 20253.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 15 in 2022-202566%。
High-end and sub-high-end: The main products of mainstream soy sauce wine companies are mostly positioned in high-end and sub-high-end, and we assume that the sum of the volume of high-end and sub-high-end mainstream single products in 2022 will account for the proportion of the scale of the ** belt respectively, then the scale of high-end and sub-high-end soy sauce wine in 2022 will be 192 respectively2 billion yuan, 3357.2 billion yuan, and considering the substitution of other flavor types of soy sauce wine, we expect that its sales growth rate in the next three years will be slightly higher than the growth rate of high-end wine and sub-high-end wine industry, and the tonnage price in the next three years will be equal to the growth rate of high-end wine and sub-high-end wine industry, and the sales volume of high-end soy sauce wine industry from 2022 to 2025 will be 850%/5.00%, with a scale of 284 in 20251.8 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13 in 2022-202593%；The sales volume and ton price CAGR of the sub-high-end soy sauce wine industry from 2022 to 2025 are 1400%/3.00%, with a scale of 543 in 20255 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 17 in 2022-202542%；Mid-range: Assuming that the sales volume of mid-range soy sauce wine declines slower than that of the industry, and the tonnage price growth rate is the same as that of the industry, it is expected that the scale of mid-range soy sauce wine will be 488 in 20257.1 billion yuan, with a CAGR of -0 in 2022-202534%, considering that the sinking of the head liquor enterprises in the sauce flavor is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the soy sauce liquor in the mid-end ** belt, and by 2025, the proportion of the mid-end ** sauce wine in the ** belt liquor will increase by 320pct reached 2185%。
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