At the beginning of 2023, the fiscal deficit ratio is set at 3%. In order to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and improve disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capacity building, an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds will be issued in the fourth quarter of 2023, all of which will be arranged to local governments through transfer payments. Looking forward to 2024, with the continuous release of the effects of macroeconomic control policies and the solid progress of high-quality development, it will lay a solid foundation for the growth of fiscal revenue, and fiscal revenue will continue to grow restoratively.
The 2023 national ledger was released a few days ago, and a number of data show the temperature of people's livelihood. In 2023, the country's general public budget expenditure increased by 5% year-on-year4%。In terms of major expenditure items, social security and employment expenditure increased by 8 percent year-on-year9%, and education spending increased by 45%, and technology spending increased by 7 year-on-year9%, and the expenditure on agriculture, forestry and water increased by 6 percent year-on-year5%, and urban and rural community spending increased by 5 percent year-on-year7%。The scale of new tax and fee reductions and tax refunds and deferrals nationwide exceeded 2 throughout the year2 trillion yuan.
Among the sectors with the leading growth rate, the proportion of the three mergers of infrastructure is basically the same as that in 2022, reflecting the characteristics of more narrow fiscal expenditure in the field of people's livelihood in recent years. Wu Qiying, a senior macro analyst at GF, said that compared with the target at the beginning of the year, the sub-expenditures have basically completed the predetermined targets, of which the proportion of science and technology expenditures, social security employment expenditures, and urban and rural community expenditures is slightly higher than the target proportion, reflecting the focus of fiscal work in 2023.
Fiscal spending will continue to increase in 2023. At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office a few days ago, Vice Minister of Finance Wang Dongwei introduced that at the beginning of 2023, the fiscal deficit rate will be arranged at 3%. In order to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and improve disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capacity building, an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds will be issued in the fourth quarter of 2023, all of which will be arranged to local governments through transfer payments.
Looking forward to 2024, Wang Dongwei said that the basic trend of China's economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed. "From the perspective of fiscal revenue, with the continuous release of the effect of macroeconomic control policies and the solid promotion of high-quality development, it will lay a solid foundation for the growth of fiscal revenue, and fiscal revenue will continue to recover growth. From the perspective of fiscal expenditure, the necessary intensity will continue to be maintained, and transfer payments to local governments will also maintain a certain scale. Wang Dongwei said.
Thirty-one provinces achieved positive growth in fiscal revenue.
Counting the national ledger in the past year, China's fiscal revenue showed a recovery growth, and the revenue of the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions increased respectively7% and 12%, and all 31 provinces across the country achieved positive growth in fiscal revenue.
What is restorative growth? **Sun Kunpeng, an associate professor at the School of Finance and Taxation of the University of Finance and Economics, told the reporter of China Youth Daily and China Youth Network that the recovery growth has two meanings, one is that the fiscal revenue base in 2022 is relatively low, resulting in a relatively fast revenue growth rate in 2023, for example, because of the large-scale tax refund factor, the VAT revenue in 2022 will be low, and the VAT performance in various projects of fiscal revenue in 2023 will be relatively bright, while the income of other taxes will be generally stable or declining. Second, in 2023, the epidemic and other factors will subside, and the economic fundamentals will recover and recover, which will bring more fiscal revenue.
Regarding the difference in growth rates between different regions, Sun Kunpeng analyzed that the relatively slow growth rate in the eastern and central regions is not only due to the impact of relatively fast growth in 2022, but also related to the greater impact of the eastern and central regions in the context of the slowdown in exports to Europe and the United States, while the northeast region has strong exports to Russia and other regions.
In addition to the growth momentum of fiscal revenue, the quality of fiscal revenue has also improved. In 2023, tax revenue will account for about 83 percent of the country's general public budget revenue6%, tax revenue increased by 8 percent year-on-year7%, non-tax revenue decreased by 3 year-on-year7%。"In 2023, the growth rate of tax revenue will exceed that of non-tax revenue, and the revenue structure of the general public budget will be optimized. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute, said that the proportion of tax revenue in 2023 will be higher than that in 2022, but still slightly lower than in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, he added that in 2023, the proactive fiscal policy will be more efficient, focusing on precision and more sustainability, and in the case of limited income growth, especially negative growth in land transfer income, it will still ensure a certain expenditure intensity to promote economic growth, prevent and resolve risks, and "the tight balance situation has intensified".
He noted that many places have become more cautious about fiscal revenue expectations in 2024 and have lowered their fiscal revenue growth expectations for 2024. On the one hand, this is related to the increase in the base, and on the other hand, the general public budget revenue growth target is set at slightly lower than the actual GDP growth target, which can leave room for the implementation of tax and fee reduction policies. Luo Zhiheng said.
Helping enterprises to bail out and responding to people's livelihood concerns.
From the clear continuation and optimization of some tax policies at the beginning of the year, to the extension, optimization and improvement of a batch of expired tax policies in the second half of the year according to changes in the economic situation, in 2023, more than 70 expired tax and fee preferential policies will be extended and optimized in batches. According to data released by the Ministry of Finance, in 2023, the scale of new tax and fee reductions and tax refunds and deferrals will exceed 22 trillion yuan.
According to the data of relevant departments, in 2023, among the new tax and fee reductions and tax refunds and deferrals across the country, the new tax and fee reductions will be about 157 trillion yuan, and the tax refund for retained credits is about 650 billion yuan. Wang Jianfan, director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at the press conference that from the perspective of the industry, the manufacturing industry and its related wholesale and retail industries have added nearly 950 billion yuan in tax cuts and fee reductions and tax refunds and deferrals, accounting for 42 percent of the total scale6%, which is the industry with the highest proportion of tax incentives. From the perspective of the scale of enterprises, the scale of new tax and fee reductions and tax refunds and deferrals for small, medium and micro enterprises is about 143 trillion yuan, accounting for 64%, "is the most obvious benefit".
He introduced that most of the more than 70 preferential tax policies that will be extended and optimized in batches in 2023 will be directly extended until the end of 2027. "These policies focus on improving the quality of supply and expanding effective demand, focusing on supporting small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, supporting the real economy to become stronger and better, supporting high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, supporting the promotion of income and consumption to protect people's livelihood, and supporting the healthy development of foreign trade, foreign investment and capital markets. ”
In terms of fiscal expenditure, the data on special bonds in the state ledger has also attracted attention. "In 2023, the scale of local ** special bonds will be 38 trillion yuan, giving priority to supporting projects with a relatively high degree of maturity and projects under construction, focusing on key points, not 'peppering noodles', expanding the investment areas of special bonds, and expanding the investment areas of special bonds to 11 in 2023. Wang Dongwei introduced that the scope of special bonds used as project capital has also been expanded to 15 aspects, and at the same time strengthen the issuance and use of special bonds, and vigorously promote the construction of a number of major projects such as transportation, water conservancy, and energy that are beneficial to the current and long-term.
Wu Qiying noted that in 2023, the scope of special bonds used as project capital has been added in 5 areas: new energy projects, coal reserve facilities, infrastructure of national industrial parks, gas supply and heat supply, on the basis of the original 10 fields.
Continue to arrange a certain scale of local special bonds, and appropriately increase the scale of investment in the budget" is also an important direction of fiscal policy in 2024. Li Xianzhong, director of the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance, revealed at the above press conference that in December 2023, after the Ministry of Finance fulfilled the approval procedures in accordance with the law, it had issued part of the new local ** debt limit for 2024 to all localities in advance to support the construction of major projects, promote the formation of physical workload, and give full play to the role of local ** bonds in stimulating the economy.
He also added that in 2019, since the establishment and improvement of the management system for the early issuance of new local ** debt limits, by 2023, with the approval of ***, the Ministry of Finance will issue new debt limits to all localities in advance is 139 trillion yuan, 285 trillion yuan, 236 trillion yuan, 179 trillion yuan and 262 trillion yuan, totaling more than 11 trillion yuan.
In the new year, the necessary intensity of fiscal spending will continue to be maintained.
The New Year has arrived, and the key words set by the ** Economic Work Conference for the fiscal policy in 2024 are "moderate strengthening, quality and efficiency". Wang Dongwei explained that the so-called moderate afterburner is mainly based on four points: first, maintain an appropriate expenditure intensity and release a positive signal;The second is to reasonably arrange the scale of investment and give full play to the amplification effect of investmentThe third is to increase the intensity of balanced transfer payments, and firmly adhere to the bottom line of the "three guarantees" (ensuring basic people's livelihood, wages, and operation) at the grassroots levelFourth, optimize and adjust the tax and fee policies to improve the accuracy, pertinence and effectiveness of the policies.
As for "improving quality and efficiency", he explained that it is necessary to work hard in six aspects, namely, implementing the requirements of living a tight life, optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure, strengthening performance management, strictly enforcing financial discipline, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and strengthening policy coordination. "We must use the money on the cutting edge and in the key places, and spend the same money to achieve greater results and achieve higher efficiency. ”
In particular, he mentioned that the fiscal policy should focus on both investment and consumption, and focus on expanding domestic demand. In Sun Kunpeng's view, it is necessary to continue to implement the structural tax and fee reduction policies, especially to support the development of the real economy, guide social investment through taxation, and at the same time leverage social capital to stimulate investment in emerging strategic industries and promote the development of new productive forces by optimizing the structure and mode of fiscal expenditure. The problem of raising children, so as to solve the worries of residents to expand consumption. ”
It is worth noting that as a key area of fiscal expenditure, the field of science and technology has been given priority in recent years. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, from 2018 to 2023, China's fiscal science and technology expenditure increased from 832.7 billion yuan to 1,056.7 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 64%。Wang Dongwei said that in 2024, the financial department will take more powerful and effective measures to promote the construction of a modern industrial system led by scientific and technological innovation, and vigorously develop new quality productivity.
One of the important tasks of fiscal policy in 2024 is undoubtedly to promote self-reliance and self-reliance in science and technology. In Wu Qiying's view, focusing on the new generation of information technology, integrated circuits and other key industrial chains, a series of policy tools such as financial subsidies, loan discounts, tax incentives, manufacturing transformation and upgrading, advanced manufacturing industry investment, etc., will be used to solve the difficult problems of basic products, core technologies, key software, etc. In addition, in terms of stimulating the vitality of scientific researchers, two reform pilots will also bring benefits, one is to support the promotion of the pilot reform of the salary system of universities and research institutes, and the other is to accelerate the reform of the ownership or long-term use of scientific and technological achievements.
China Youth Daily, China Youth Network reporter Zhu Caiyun.
*: China Youth Daily).