The chairman of the photovoltaic company fell to the leading company and couldn't sit still.
On the evening of January 29, LONGi Green Energy announced that Chairman Zhong Baoshen would increase his holdings of the company in the next day.
Since the beginning of the year, the photovoltaic equipment sector has fallen by more than 16%. On the one hand, due to the performance of more photovoltaic companies falling short of expectations, on the other hand, the market also has more doubts about the fundamentals of the industry.
On January 29, the photovoltaic equipment sector suffered a decline, with a single-day decline of 75%。LONGi Green Energy's share price fell 71%, which has fallen more than 60% from the previous high of the stock price.
*Later, LONGi Green Energy announced that Chairman Zhong Baoshen announced that he would start the shareholding increase plan the next day. This is not LONGi's chairman's new plan to increase his holdings. As early as October 31, 2023, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi, announced that he would increase his holdings by 1-1 in the next 12 months500 million yuan, and in the past three months, the chairman of LONGi has not made any repurchase actions.
However, the announcement of the start of the increase in holdings the next day is still very rare in the A** field.
As a leading enterprise in the photovoltaic industry with a market value of 100 billion yuan, LONGi Green Energy's share price has been ** since July 2022, from 67 yuan to 20 yuan shares. In the second half of 2022, market concerns about PV overcapacity gradually heated up and gradually fermented in 2023.
Entering 2024, pessimism has intensified again, and since New Year's Day, the photovoltaic equipment sector has fallen by more than 16%. In addition, the recent performance forecasts released by photovoltaic companies have shown that the general performance in the fourth quarter of last year was generally weak, which further suppressed the annual performance, resulting in a further decline in market confidence in the future of the photovoltaic industry.
In the early years, LONGi successfully rose through a precise monocrystalline silicon strategy and became a leading enterprise in the photovoltaic industry. LONGi's investment in technology has also become the vane of the industry.
Unlike in the past, this round of PV technology change is mainly focused on the field of cell technology, rather than the previous silicon wafers. However, the diversity and difficulty of cell technology is far more complex than that of silicon wafer technology, which has led to the layout of various photovoltaic leaders in multiple technical directions.
While some peers have already taken the lead in making significant gains with TOPCon technology, LONGi's actions seem to be relatively slow.
According to LONGi Green Energy's report for the first three quarters of 2023, revenue was 94.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 855%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1169.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 654%。Q3 single-quarter revenue was 2944.8 billion yuan, down 1892%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 251.5 billion yuan, down 44 percent year-on-year05%, down 546%, the performance was far below market expectations.
In LONGi's business composition, the module business accounts for about 66% and the wafer business accounts for about 30%. Last year, LONGi's revenue and profit were greatly affected in the third quarter due to the continuous development of modules, which was expected in the industry. However, the situation was more severe in the fourth quarter, with not only modules continuing to reach 08 yuan watts, p-type silicon wafers** are even more encountered**. In response to market pressure, LONGi lowered its wafers** in December last year, which led to more challenges for the company's performance in the fourth quarter. 
However, JinkoSolar, which focuses on the N-type TOPCon technology route, performed differently last year.
According to the latest disclosed performance forecast, JinkoSolar's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2023 was 635.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27914%。It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company for the whole year will reach 725-79.500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147-171%. Although the full-year profit growth rate was not as fast as in the first three quarters, mainly due to the drag in the fourth quarter, the overall profit still doubled and successfully regained the No. 1 position in global module shipments.
JinkoSolar, 2023 net profit attributable to the parent company**average).
The fierce competition in the industry and market changes, especially the failure to seize the outbreak of TOPCon technology, have made LONGi's operating pressure more prominent. This has also become one of the core reasons for the market's doubts about LONGi.
In September 2023, LONGi changed its attitude of keeping the technical route secret, and Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi, announced in a high-profile manner that BC batteries will be the absolute mainstream in the future, a change that caused shocks in the PV market. There are different opinions in the market on the interpretation of this declaration, with some believing that LONGi may be deterring the market, while others believe that LONGi has its own deliberate considerations.
Jianzhi Research believes that LONGi's previous choice of monocrystalline silicon route was due to the management's long-term vision for long-term development, and finally achieved success. In the face of the current transformation of photovoltaic cell technology, LONGi still chooses the technical route for strategic layout from the perspective of long-termism. This shows that the company has adhered to a consistent long-term development strategy in the face of technological change.
There are similarities between the mono and multi battles of the past and the current battle over the battery route. At that time, PV companies also understood the advantages of monocrystalline, but chose multicrystalline for cost reasons, because multicrystalline is more economical in the short term. Choosing mono means a greater risk and the possibility of investing heavily in R&D and still failing. The reason why LONGi was able to win in mono and multi was also because he chose the mono route with better prospects but more difficulty.
The current battle between BC and TOPCON presents a similar situation to the battle between mono and multi in the past. Most companies choose TOPCON technology for economic reasons, and relatively few have deployed BC technology. However, with the passage of the TOPCon technology dividend period and the convergence of products, if the industry enterprises do not reserve the possible mainstream technology routes in the future, they will face survival pressure when the new round of elimination stations comes.
LONGi said in the record of investor relations activities on January 26 that according to the construction of n-type production capacity in the industry, it is expected that n-type production capacity will also enter a surplus stage in 2024, and differentiation is the key to PV breakthrough in a highly homogeneous competitive environment.
Although LONGi's chairman's increase in holdings undoubtedly sends a positive signal to the market, the future of the PV industry is full of uncertainties, and the ultimate winner can only be determined by time.
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