The past two years have been a "bleak moment" for private equity managers.
However, among the many bleak performances, the performance of private equity products managed by Dong Chengfei "outweighed the crowd".
Although his product was also established at such a "challenging moment" in mid-2022, the net value of the product remained above the face value of $1 most of the time. This is a rarity in today's vintage.
Dong Chengfei, who has been hedging with financial instruments for nearly two years and has been low for nearly two years, will he re-increase his position at the end of the Lunar New Year? What is his view on the economy, on real estate?
Dong Chengfei reviewed the prediction of Ruijun's assets at the beginning of 2023. At that time, the annual report mainly covered two topics, one of which was the energy revolution.
At that time, Dong Chengfei's conclusion had two points:
First, due to the very high level of traditional energy in 2022, this high trend cannot be sustained.
Second, the original new energy and traditional energy are basically developing in two respective dimensions, and from 2023 to 2024, new energy will slowly enter the stage of stock substitution.
Looking back at 2023 now, the emergence of traditional energy is basically in line with expectations. The increase in the substitution of new energy for old energy is also increasing, which makes the growth rate of China's thermal power market in the past year in a weak growth trend.
Dong Chengfei also believes that the latest data shows that China's installed photovoltaic capacity in 2023 far exceeds market expectations, and hydropower and wind power will be able to meet the new power demand in 2024.
Here he is bold **,Thermal power may show a slightly negative growth trend in the coming year.
Mapping in the ** market, although the upstream coal ** listed companies have led to a decline in fundamental figures due to ***, the valuation of such companies is too low. In addition, the dividends of such companies are relatively high, and the stock price performance is more eye-catching, especially since the beginning of this year, the upstream assets have performed strongly.
Dong Chengfei pointed out:Ruijun Asset Management is optimistic about the trend of China's real estate market.
He believes that the importance of the real estate market to China's economy is self-evident, it is an absolute pillar industry in China, and the entire industrial chain accounts for nearly 1 4 of China's GDP, and it is also an important wealth carrier for residents.
Chinese residents invest more than half of their wealth in real estate, so the impact on the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is significant. At the same time, real estate also has a key impact on residents' confidence and willingness to spend.
In the past few years, residents in second-, third- and fourth-tier cities have been able to experience housing prices, and this year, residents in first-tier cities will experience ** more obviously.
Therefore, he believes that China's real estate is currently in the "final adjustment" stage.
On the other hand, the real estate sector in the market, for 4 consecutive years, the Hong Kong real estate sector index has far underperformed the broad-based index of the market.
Dong Chengfei analyzedThere are two modes of adjustment of assets, one is the negative mode, and the other is the rapid liquidation mode. For the real estate market, Ruijun Assets tends to have a higher probability of the latter.
In the global market, Dong Chengfei believes that the Japanese property market is in a downward mode, and the adjustment time span is very long.
On the other hand, Europe and the United States under the subprime mortgage crisis have deduced different real estate adjustment models due to the rapid liquidation.
Dong Chengfei further predicts that in 2024, the sales center of China's commercial housing (residential) may fall in the area center of 9-1.1 billion square meters.
He said that inspired by sell-side research, he found that the real estate market in the three northeastern provinces has begun to decline since 2018, preceded the national market adjustment, and has shown signs of stabilization in 2023.
He expected,New home sales are always a leading and forward-looking indicator, which is worth paying attention to.
He also revealed that Ruijun Assets has the following predictions about the real estate trend:
First, real estate sales are likely to bottom out and stabilize in 2024;
Second, due to the lag of investment, the pressure on the upstream and downstream of real estate will still exist in 2024;
Third, as long as there is no obvious negative situation, the subsequent switch between the old and new economic momentum will come to an end;
Fourth,From a fundamental perspective, this should be a major fundamental change;
Fifth, the key to how the capital market reacts lies in the risk premium.
Dong Chengfei also expects that once the above logic is implemented, it will be transmitted to the capital market, and more of a reflection will be the recovery of investor confidence.
Specifically,If new home sales in real estate stabilize, there will be more consensus among subjective long** managers on fundamentals.
This has changed an important reason for the pain of the long-** managers in the past two or three years.
He also feels that 2024 will start,The economic cycle will go up, and the uncertainty is nothing more than the intensity.
And as the economy recovers, market confidence may gradually recover. If the industry consensus increases, it will "cheer up" the subjective multi-investment strategy.
He also reminded that in the past 14 years, the median return of public offerings** has outperformed the CSI 300 Index for 10 years, which may prove that professional managers can have excess returns in such a market.
Dong Chengfei also reminded that it is always difficult to judge the ups and downs of the capital market.
But there is one conclusion that may be confirmed, that isAt the moment, the index is indeed low.
In terms of risk premium (the inverse of PE - risk-free yield), this indicator is at the second highest level in history. This shows that the opportunity cost of investors is declining, and the market has a high "expectation" of uncertainty.
He believes that there are two periods in the world that can be used as a reference for current Chinese investors:
One is the revelation brought by the "beautiful 50" assets of the United States in the 70s of the last century;
The second is the historical enlightenment of China's 2007 bull market.
Specifically, U.S. stocks experienced a shift from a bubble to a dissociation of core assets in the 70s of the last century, and the trend of A-shares from 2017 to 2023 can be compared to it. The core star targets of the two markets are exactly the same, they are all very high-quality listed companies, and the ROE index is high, that is, the ability to make money is strong.
Since then, the U.S. stock market has also experienced a decline in economic growth, a strong company in large enterprises, and an increase in industry concentration; The economy bottomed out and rebounded, and corporate earnings data was strong; Liquidity is relatively abundant, and the proportion of institutional investors has increased.
Both countries have gone through the stage of speculating on the subject matter and the concept – and finally returning to the quality of the enterprise to invest.
Throughout the decade of the 70s, after the market stabilized, the U.S. stock market came out of the largest round of small tickets in history**.
Looking at today's A-shares, there seems to be a "new feature": the worse the fundamentals, the better the performance, the farther away from the institutional vision, the better the performance, and the market risk appetite seems to be improving. These are mapped to history.
Let's look at the money**. The market in both countries at different times has been driven by institutional investors. The public offering ** in the A** field, from less than 5% of the voice at the beginning, finally rose to 40% of the current proportion of the right to speak, is an example.
Dong Chengfei predicts that how the market will perform in the future depends on the performance of the following key points:
1. How will the economy nurture emerging industries?
2. How long has it taken for emerging industries to be conceived and developed?
3. Is there a group of small businesses that will grow up from a young age?
4. Will market risk appetite increase?
5. Is it possible for the style of the market to change?
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