The International Monetary Organization (IMF) said in its World Economic Outlook report that China's per capita GDP will fall to 1 in 20232.54 million US dollars, while Malaysia's per capita GDP is expected to rise to 1$3.03 million.
How accurate is this**?
Let's take a look at the report card released by China: the economy in 2023 will actually be 5% year-on-year2%, which is 02 percentage points. 0.The difference of 2 percentage points should be considered "within the margin of error".
However, there is one point that needs to be emphasized, that is: the IMF's economic development of China is "low in most cases, and rarely high", but the economic development of other countries is "sometimes low, sometimes high".
Taking Malaysia as an example, the IMF predicted in the "World Economic Outlook" report published in October last year that the economic growth rate in 2023 will be about 4%, the GDP will reach 430.9 billion in US dollar terms, and the per capita GDP will reach 1$30,000 breakthrough.
But the final economic report card released by the National Bureau of Statistics of Malaysia is like this:GDP in 2023 will grow by 3 in real terms year-on-year7%, which is 03 percentage points.
Among them, the economy increased by 5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter6%, up 29%, an increase of 33%γIn the fourth quarter, manufacturing output decreased by 0. QoQ from the previous quarter as exports were lower than expectedThe year-on-year growth rate was forced to slow to 3%.
For the whole year of 2023, the nominal GDP accounted for by the market ** will be 18226RM4.7 billion. Converted according to the average exchange rate of the ringgit and the US dollar published by Bank Malaysia, it is obtained:Malaysia's GDP in 2023 is 3992$4.3 billion, not $430.9 billion.
Yes, you read that right! Malaysia's prices in 2023 are also tending to be deflationary, and the ringgit's exchange rate performance is not very good, so that its GDP not only does not reach 430 billion in US dollar terms, but also falls below the 400 billion US dollar mark - a decrease of 19%γ
From a dollar perspective, Malaysia's economy will shrink by nearly 2% in 2023, while its population will expand to 33.38 millionAs a result, GDP per capita did not increase, but fell to 1$20,000 β 1$3.03 million is more than $1,000 less.
China's economy will exceed 126 trillion yuan in 2023, and the scale in US dollar terms will decline slightly to 1789 trillion. Based on a population of 140967 million, the per capita GDP is 1$2.69 million, still above Malaysia.
For this year's **, the IMF is still optimistic about Malaysia
The IMF's World Economic Outlook report has an outlook not only for 2023, but also for 2024. Among them, Malaysia's per capita GDP is expected to expand to 13.91 million US dollars, Chinese per capita GDP is expected to be 1$3.16 million.
In the eyes of IMF scholars, Malaysia's per capita GDP will still surpass China's this year. How accurate this ** is, let's wait and see.
Nansheng estimates that ** is more likely to continue to fail. Because China's new round of economic census has been launched, it is customary to raise the GDP of previous years again, so as to promote the expansion of economic scale and per capita GDP this year (2024) in disguise. This article is written by Nansheng, and it is strictly forbidden to plagiarize!