During the Spring Festival holiday, both abroad and at home, it can be said that there are very positive signals. Specifically, during the Lunar New Year holiday, most of the global stock indexes**, U.S. bond yields rose, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations, China's travel increased significantly, consumption continued to increase, and the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism accelerated the landing. The economy is booming.
Before the holiday, the steel price stopped falling, and the main rebar contract went to an important support level, and began to rise, and it is currently rising above the support level, focusing on whether the opening will continue to rise next Monday; Although the current domestic market has not yet opened, it is affected by the improvement of foreign marketsAccording to the current market atmosphere and the experience of previous years, there is a high probability of a good start. The overall atmosphere is in a "rising" sound, steel prices are heating up, and the old iron can take the goods appropriately.
The steel industry is still an important economic support point. A number of banks jointly supported the development of real estate, and quickly injected funds to promote the demand for steel in real estate. This is a very important policy orientation, and at the same time, it is also an important starting point to promote the rise of steel. I think there should be multiple perspectives**, and there can be a clear idea from several aspects.
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High-level policy guidance and economic support are the main tone. We learned that recently, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Agricultural Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Construction Bank and the Bank of Communications held a special meeting on the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and announced the deployment and progress of relevant work. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry continued to develop with high quality, and the improvement of the supply and demand pattern provided support for the upward trend.
From 2022 to 2025, the supply-demand gap in the industry will be narrower than in previous years, providing upward support for steel**. 2024 is an important year of connecting the past and the next, and it is also a year of economic recovery, and the current global economy is also in a complex and volatile situation. At present, China is an important growth point of the world economy, strengthen the development of high-tech industries, promote the development of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, new infrastructure and other industries, and then stabilize the economy and promote growth. Investment in the steel industry and support for the development of the industry are indispensable.
The supply and demand structure of steel continues to improve. At present, China still dominates the global steel demand and supply, the construction industry and manufacturing industry drive the change of domestic steel demand, and the industry policy drives the change of domestic steel supply. Under the goal of "double carbon", the steel industry will gradually shift from large-scale development relying on increased output to high-quality development, and metallurgical technology, product structure, and enterprise development will adapt to the new stage of industry development, showing a completely different development trend.
The adjustment of policies and real estate infrastructure will inevitably bring about the adjustment of the steel industry. I still remember that at the "Hongru Meeting" a year ago, the boss of the steel enterprise and industry experts talked about itChina has launched a series of real estate policies this year, and the demand for steel in public rental housing, flat-emergency dual-use, and urban village renovation projects will be promoted, and the real estate construction area may go down, but not much. In general, most of the time the steel is higher than last year's, and the steel used in real estate will not be lower than last year's steel consumption. Such a supply and demand trend will form a strong support for steel prices.
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Cost-side support will become a solid cornerstone. Coal and iron ore are like oil, natural bulls. Coal has seasonal fluctuations, but not very much overall; This year, the global iron ore supply and demand have both increased, and the supply increase is greater than the demand increase. It is estimated that the global iron ore** will increase by 47.5 million tons in 2024, of which about 32.5 million tons will be added by overseas mines and 15 million tons will be added by domestic mines. China is still in the blast furnace capacity launch period, considering the slow recovery of end market demand and the high demand for steel exports, China's iron ore demand is expected to increase by about 8 million tons in 2024.
The beginning of the year is optimistic, and the steel market is gradually warming up with the return of spring. After a wave of steel prices before the Spring Festival, they began to rebound, and the disk closed above the important support level, which also brought confidence to the market. After the resumption of normal work, there should be more policies to launch and expect, and at the same time, steel-using enterprises have also resumed work, and the steel market has resumed liquidity again. The resumption of production of steel enterprises will focus on replenishing raw materials, promoting the upward trend of raw materials, and also supporting steel prices.