Tomorrow's steel price**
Compared with yesterday, today's ** is obviously down on the disk, and the spot adjustment is relatively small. At present, in the last week before the holiday, demand has fallen to the freezing point, and there are very few, and ** merchants are also decreasing. So how to go tomorrow, look down ......
First, the influencing factors of the steel market are as follows
1. Last year, the renovation of the old community was newly started370,000
The renovation of old residential areas is an important task to enhance people's sense of gain, and it is also an important part of the implementation of urban renewal actions. In 2023, the country will start to renovate 5 old urban communities370,000, benefiting 8.97 million residents, with a total investment of nearly 240 billion yuan. (Guangming Net).
The main steel-using industry is the first to operate
In 2023, the construction industry will show a divergent trend, among which the main indicators of real estate will continue to decline except for the decline in the completed area, but the decline will be narrowed to a certain extent, the area of investment, construction, and new construction will be at a low level in recent years, and the investment in infrastructure construction will maintain growth, and the growth rate will decline to a certain extent. (China Iron and Steel Association).
In January, the steel PMI showed that the off-season effect continued to show that the supply and demand of the steel market were weak
The steel industry PMI in January 2024 was 46%, unchanged from the previous month. The changes in the sub-index show that the overall decline in the demand for steel market, the tightening of production, the accumulation of inventories, the slowdown in the upward momentum of raw materials, and the slight decline in steel. (Xinhua Finance).
Second, the spot market
Today's rebar: steady and falling
At present, the market is closed, the transaction volume is slightly lower than the previous month, and the overall trading volume is very small. In addition, facing the Spring Festival soon, the disk volatility has intensified, and there is no trend for the time being, and the business wait-and-see mood is more, and it is expected that the rebar will run steadily in the middle of tomorrow.
Today's hot roll: a narrow downward range
The increase in HRC inventory is small, and the demand for the table has rebounded, but the output has increased significantly, and it may gradually come under pressure in the later period. In addition, due to the influence of seasonal factors, the weakening of terminal demand is becoming more and more obvious, and there is almost no speculative demand.
Today's middle board: stable and weak
Bifocal disk sentiment is weak, the support for finished materials has weakened, the last week before the holiday demand fell to the freezing point, spot ** followed the disk slightly**, but under the support of macro policy, the probability of a big fall is not large, it is expected that tomorrow in the plate slightly weakened.
Strip today: Weak operation
At present, the cost of steel mills is upside down, and the market is mainly wait-and-see in the face of first-class resources. In addition, the willingness of winter storage in the early stage is not good, and the demand has not been released for a long time, and it is expected that the strip steel will run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Today's profile: steady in a fall
The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the suspension of production and maintenance of section steel mills is increasing, and the market is flat. Yesterday, the billet was lowered by 40 yuan tons, and the bottom support of the section steel was weakened, and it is expected that the profile will run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Today's pipe: steady in the fall
Approaching the end of the year, the pipe factory has been overhauled and suspended, and the overall price adjustment willingness is not large, and most of them continue to operate steadily. The current disk ** continues to fall, but the impact on the spot ** is not great, and it is expected that the main pipe will run steadily tomorrow.
Third, the raw material market
Billets Today: Steady Operation
The trend of the market is **, which drives the spot trading atmosphere to weaken, and the overall wait-and-see situation appears. However, manufacturers still have certain macro expectations, so the bottom support still exists, and it is expected that the billet will run firmly tomorrow.
Iron ore today: ** downside
Recently, the central bank announced a RRR cut, and the real estate side also continued to release good news, and the overall sentiment has picked up, but near the end of the month, due to the impact of the holiday, the market is cold, and the mine price has fallen again, and it is expected that the iron ore will go down tomorrow.
Today's coke: stable operation
With the rebound of downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm, coke shipments are relatively smooth, and the coke inventory in the plant has returned to a low level, but the disk has been lowered, affecting market sentiment, and the spot rally has been suppressed, and it is expected that coke will continue to operate steadily tomorrow.
Scrap today: stable and weak
At present, businesses around the country into the holiday countdown, the market is about to enter a state of no market, the pre-holiday scrap fundamentals remain unchanged, short-term scrap is difficult to drive, is expected to weaken tomorrow scrap slightly.
Today's pig iron: the Lord is steady and falling
At present, the end of the year is approaching, the downstream foundry enterprises are out of production and on holiday, the market transaction atmosphere is cold, the situation of pig iron supply and demand is not improving, and it is difficult to fluctuate in the short term.
Fourth, comprehensive views
At present, the domestic macro good information continues, but after a few days of continuous digestion on the disk, it may be difficult to have a stronger drive before the year. At present, from the perspective of the market, under the weak pattern of supply and demand, especially with the successive holidays of merchants, the market has a price and no market state, coupled with the weak sentiment of the bifocal disk at the raw material end, the support for finished materials has weakenedIt is expected that tomorrow's steel prices will be stable and falling, with a range of 10-20 yuan.
Decision-making suggestions: due to the approaching holiday in the spot market, there has been no obvious change in the rise and fall, it is recommended that merchants maintain a cautious wait-and-see, replenish the appropriate amount of low inventory, maintain a certain inventory operation, and avoid large-scale operations. (For reference only, not investment advice).