With only a few days left before the Spring Festival, the sales situation of blackfish is still not optimistic, and the market volatility is limited, even if there is a slight increase, it will soon fall. Boss Sun, a black fish farmer in Foshan, still has more than 1 million catties of black fish in his hands, and he is deeply worried about this. Although some of the blackfish had been sold before New Year's Day to pay for pond rent and part of the feed payment, it still had to face the pressure of paying the feed payment. In order to alleviate the financial constraints, Boss Sun may have to ** some blackfish again.
Looking back on 2023, the overall trend of the blackfish market is low, and even if there is occasional ***, it is difficult to sustain. At present, the inventory of new and old black fish is superimposed, and the market sales volume has been lower than the same period in previous years for a long time. Even as the Spring Festival approaches, the market sales volume has not increased significantly. At the same time, the processing plant is about to shut down, the annual fish harvest work has come to an end, and in the future, the contradiction between excessive inventory and insufficient consumption will become more and more prominent, which will undoubtedly have an adverse impact on the black fish.
The plight of the blackfish market has come as many in the industry as many industry insiders had anticipated. In 2022, the black fish market** performed well, and farmers in high-yield areas such as Guangdong reaped good profits. With the rise of the prefabricated vegetable market, the market demand for varieties such as black fish seems to have increased significantly, attracting many new farmers to enter the market. These new entrants include established farmers who have expanded their farming, farmers who have switched from other farming species to black fish farming, and even some who have never been exposed to aquaculture. At the same time, large feed group companies have also expanded their self-rearing area, so that farmers and companies large and small want a piece of the black fish market.
However, it's not that simple. Many small ** once thought that after the large aquaculture companies sold out the fish, their lives would be better. However, the reality is that the stock of ponds in large aquaculture companies is still huge. In Guangdong, for a while, many distributors mainly supplied large aquaculture companies, but when these companies were about to run out of fish, fish prices improved for a short time, but soon fell back. In the final analysis, it is a problem of weak consumption.
After the epidemic was relaxed, many people had high hopes for the consumer market in 2023, and a large number of new entrants poured into the catering industry. However, the problem of weak consumption began to manifest itself in the spring and became more pronounced in the summer. This has not only affected the aquatic product market, but also many agricultural products have been unsalable, and other consumer industries have also generally shrunk.
The rise of the prefabricated vegetable market has stimulated the expansion of the scale of black fish farming to a certain extent. Many processing plants do acquire large quantities of black fish, but the market for processed fillets and fillets, is in a state of fierce competition. Many processing plants have poor sales and declining products, resulting in many processing plants not being able to fully purchase Blackfish in the second half of the year. A person in charge of a black fish processing plant said that in the past, the quality of black fish fillets was higher than that of pangasius fillets and catfish fillets, but now the competitiveness of black fish fillets is obviously insufficient.
At present, the live fish market is not in circulation, the purchase volume of processing plants is limited, and the problem of oversupply has existed for a long time and is becoming more and more serious. This has led to a continued downturn in blackfish** and farmers are under tremendous pressure. According to the tracking data of the aquaculture network, the blackfish** in the period from December to January 2023 was significantly lower than the same period in the previous year. The old fish ** is cheaper by 1 at most8 yuan catty, the least time is also cheaper 1 yuan catty; The trend of new fish ** is similar, at most it is cheaper than the same period of the previous year3 yuan catty, and recently it has been cheaper by 8 cents.
In the huge breeding market, some farmers are resolutely reluctant to reduce prices, while others have to reduce prices due to financial pressure. "In the past two days, the black fish ** with more than 2 catties and 5 catties has fallen again, only 76 yuan catty, not the buyer to reduce the price, but some farmers really can't bear to sell fish cheaply. "Although some distributors have begun to increase the price of black fish, for this batch of fish, even if the price increases by 5 cents or 1 yuan, it may not be able to turn farmers around.
To make matters worse, over time, the size of the fish in the pond will continue to increase, and the feed will be expensive. Even after the price reduction, the black fish feed is still very expensive. The longer the farmer keeps it, the higher the feed ratio will be, and he may eventually face the dilemma of having to sell the fish. Some distributors expect that by the first half of next year, it may be difficult to sell out the old fish in the existing ponds. At that time, the new fish in 2023 will become old fish again, and there may be a situation that has not been seen for many years.
In 2023, it is not uncommon for farmed species like blackfish to have similar problems. The main reason is that the scale of breeding of many species continues to expand, but the market demand may not increase or even decrease, resulting in a serious oversupply. This is not only because of the imperfect industrial chain and unstable varieties, but also because of the blind expansion of the scale of farmers, as well as the behavior of some enterprises to provide feed and participate in the breeding process.