Text: Ren Zeping's teamMost global stock indexes are on the upside
Around the Spring Festival (February 1-16), most of the major indices. Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Composite Index cumulative**77%；Hong Kong stocks in the Year of the Dragon "Three Consecutive Suns", a total of **5 before and after the Spring Festival52%。Europe's three major stock indexes, France's CAC40, UK's FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX index are each **06% and 126%；Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow respectively30% and 125%；The Asia-Pacific Korea Composite Index and Nikkei rose 607% and 606%, Australia's S&P 200 index fell 029%；Brazil's IBOVESPA index rose 076%。
Spring Festival service consumption continued to recover
Event: As of February 16 (the 22nd day of the Spring Festival), the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society during the Spring Festival in 2024 is about 50900 million person-times, a year-on-year increase of 141%, an increase of 12 percent over the same period in 20199%；The largest number of passengers sent by non-commercial passenger cars.
Domestic tourism travel during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 47.4 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 343%, an increase of 19% over the same period in 2019; The total cost of domestic tourists is 63268.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 473%, an increase of 77%。
According to the "2024 Chinese New Year of the Dragon Travel Report" released by Ctrip, during the Spring Festival holiday, domestic, outbound and inbound travel orders increased significantly year-on-year, and exceeded the level of the same period in 2019. Ticket orders for domestic scenic spots increased by more than 6% year-on-year, and ticket orders for overseas scenic spots increased by more than 130% compared with 2019. The average price of tickets and entertainment orders doubled year-on-year, and the average per capita of customized tourists increased by 2% year-on-year.
During the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 (February 10 to February 17), the national movie box office will be 801.6 billion yuan, exceeding 78 percent of the Spring Festival stalls in 2021400 million yuan; The number of moviegoers was 16.3 billion, more than 16 billion. Interpretation: Service consumption during the Spring Festival showed the characteristics of continuous recovery. Tourism revenue exceeded that before the epidemic, the unit price of customers continued to recover, and benefited from the "visa-free circle of friends", cross-border travel is booming, and inbound tourism has become a new growth point. The box office of the movie surpassed that of 2021, setting a new high for the Spring Festival box office in historyAnnual consumption is still the stabilizer of the economy, and if the recovery of consumption is insufficient, it is more necessary to make policy efforts and infrastructure support. In 2023, service consumption will be a bright spot in driving the economy, and the tertiary industry and consumption will drive GDP by 307 and 430 percentage points. However, aggregate demand is insufficient, and consumption is ultimately affected by the effects of employment, income and wealth.
New home transactions in early 2024 are still waiting to recover
Second-hand is better than new
Event: In terms of new home transactions, during the Spring Festival in 2024 (210-2.17), 30 large and medium-sized cities new housing average daily transaction 040,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 565%。Since the beginning of 2024 (11-2.17), 30 large and medium-sized cities new housing transaction area of a total of 99290,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 311%。
In terms of second-hand housing transactions, during the Spring Festival in 2024 (210-2.17), Beijing, Shenzhen, Qingdao, Suzhou, Foshan five cities of second-hand residential transaction area of 46370 flat, a slight decrease of 6 compared with the Spring Festival period in 20230%。Since the beginning of 2024 (11-2.17), the total number of second-hand houses in key 14 cities was 78420,000 square meters, a slight increase of 01%。
Interpretation: Judging from the transaction data, the market did not recover during the Spring Festival. However, with the recent relaxation of purchase restrictions in core cities, the gradual release of improved demand, and the peak season for the purchase of houses in traditional school districts after the Spring Festival, the transaction situation of "Golden Three, Silver and Four" is worth paying attention to.
In the first half of 2023, sales have rebounded significantly after the optimization of epidemic prevention policies, and the sales data base is high, so the year-on-year sales data since the beginning of 2024 is relatively flat. Second-hand housing sales are stronger than new houses, first, the listing price of second-hand houses in the past year has been the best, and the range of locations available is wider; Second, residents' confidence in the delivery capacity of off-plan housing has not been fully restored. 
January financial data beat expectations
Event: The increase in the scale of social finance in January was 65 trillion yuan, the previous value of 194 trillion yuan; New RMB loans492 trillion yuan, the previous value of 117 trillion yuan; M2 increased by 87%, the previous value increased by 97%。
Interpretation: Social finance is off to a good start. The amount of social financing in January, 6The new social financing of 5 trillion yuan is the highest in history, mainly supported by corporate bonds and off-balance sheet financing. Since the beginning of 2024, policies such as RRR cuts, structural interest rate cuts, and PSL have been intensively introduced, with obvious short-term driving effects, and their sustainability remains to be seen.
Credit increased slightly, with a small increase in enterprises and a large increase in residents. On the enterprise side, the amount of bill financing has shrunk, although the medium and long-term loans have increased slightly, the absolute volume is at a high level, and the 500 billion PSL has been implemented one after another, which has played a certain role in supporting credit. On the residential side, both short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans increased. Among them, short-term loans were mainly due to the increase in household consumption near the Spring Festival, and the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 627.2 billion yuan, an increase of 404.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The recent announcement of the real estate white list, in conjunction with the real estate financing coordination mechanism, has boosted the real estate market to a certain extent.
Under the influence of the dislocation of the Spring Festival, M1 increased, and residents' deposits increased sharply, and the sustainability remains to be seen. M2 year-on-year growth rate of 87%, down 1 percentage point from the previous month. Among them, corporate deposits increased by 1 year-on-year85 trillion yuan, and residents' deposits increased by 3% year-on-year67 trillion yuan, mainly affected by last year's high base caused by the dislocation of the Spring Festival. M1 year-on-year growth rate of 59%, a significant increase of 46 percentage points, M2-M1 scissors gap narrowed rapidly, in addition to the impact of the Spring Festival, a series of stable growth policies such as RRR cuts and the issuance of trillions of national bonds led to an increase in corporate demand deposits. Further observation is needed for future sustainability.
The central bank's Q4 monetary policy implementation report
Send an important signal
Event: On February 8, 2024, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the report on China's monetary policy implementation for the fourth quarter of 2023.
Interpretation:To face up to the problem and enhance confidence, monetary policy should be intensified. Regarding the domestic economic situation, the central bank believes that "to further promote the economic rebound, we need to overcome some difficulties and challenges", face up to the problems, enhance confidence, and solve problems in the process of development. **Emphasizing progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking. We also believe that in order to boost confidence, the current is fundamentally what we have emphasized before, and all sectors need to rebuild consensus: development is the foundation for solving all problems, put development as the top priority, go all out to fight for the economy, and start a new round of economic stimulus plan.
The monetary policy sets the tone of "a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and powerful".。Consistent with the tone set by the ** Economic Work Conference, compared with Q3, which emphasizes "precision and power", Q4 emphasizes "flexibility and moderation". Since the beginning of 2024, policies such as RRR cuts, structural interest rate cuts, and PSL have been intensively introduced to drive the recovery of social finance. the second is to promote the LPR to continue to decline; Third, the adjustment of OMO and MLF policy interest rates is not ruled out.
Increase the proportion of direct financing. For the first time, the central bank proposed to "reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit", which is to implement the requirement of vigorously developing direct financing. Corporate bonds have a certain substitution relationship with credit, and compared with credit, bond financing is a standardized financing tool and belongs to direct financing. In the future, direct financing will be vigorously developed, and corporate bond financing may receive more support.
Accurately grasp the law of supply and demand of money and credit and the new characteristics, lower the expectation of total volume and new addition, and pay more attention to the structure and stock. In terms of credit, the central bank has opened a special column on "accurately grasping the laws and new characteristics of money and credit supply and demand", and should reduce excessive attention to monthly high-frequency data on money and credit. It is necessary to look more at the effectiveness of interest rate reductions, the extent of financial support in key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, green development, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, and the scale of social financing covering direct financing. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to revitalizing the credit stock by means of debt restructuring and other means.
First-tier cities kicked off the prelude to relaxation
The implementation of the "white list" of project financing has been accelerated
Event: Before the Spring Festival, the first-tier cities have relaxed the purchase restriction policy, following the relaxation of the restrictions on non-household registration single house purchases in Shanghai, and the lifting of the purchase restrictions on housing of more than 120 square meters in Guangzhou, on February 6, Beijing Tongzhou relaxed the purchase restrictions on the number of years of settlement and the payment of individual income tax and social insurance, and on February 7, the whole city of Shenzhen relaxed the requirements for the purchase of houses for three years and social security and individual income tax.
During the Spring Festival, the optimization policy of the real estate industry was dominated by the introduction of housing purchase subsidy policies in low-energy cities. During the Spring Festival in 2024, all localities will take the initiative to carry out housing exhibitions and preferential measures for "returning to their hometowns" during the Spring Festival, combined with local financial housing subsidies and sales discounts of real estate enterprises, so as to attract home buyers. According to statistics, during the Spring Festival, Harbin in Heilongjiang, Xinghua in Jiangsu, Pingnan in Guangxi, Sanming in Fujian, Minqing County in Fujian, Weiyuan County in Sichuan and other places have held real estate exhibitions and Spring Festival house purchase discounts.
As of the end of January, 170 cities in 26 provinces have established a real estate financing coordination mechanism, and the first batch of real estate project "white list" involves a total of 3,218 projects. Commercial banks have granted a total of 178 loans to 83 projects in 27 cities600 million yuan.
Interpretation: First-tier cities frequently optimized demand-side policies in February to "stabilize the property market", and it is the general trend for first-tier cities to cancel purchase restrictions in the future. It is of great significance to promote the signal of market bottoming and boosting transaction sentiment, and help release reasonable demand for housing purchases.
Medium and low-energy cities intensively launched preferential policies for house purchases during the Spring Festival, aiming to seize the Spring Festival to return to their hometowns and buy homes and boost property consumption. However, the current foundation for the overall economic recovery is still unstable, market expectations and income expectations are weak, and it may be difficult for the medium and low-level markets** to improve significantly during the Spring Festival.
On January 12, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision requested the establishment of a real estate financing coordination mechanism, and since the "white list" of real estate projects was proposed, the real estate financing coordination mechanism has been accelerated recently. It will effectively alleviate the shortage of funds of real estate enterprises, support the development and construction delivery of projects, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. 
U.S. inflation exceeded expectations, and interest rate cut expectations were postponed
Event: January U.S. CPI 31%, expected 29%, the previous value was 34%；Core CPI was 39% and expected 37%, the previous value was 39%。
On 8 February, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that data needs to be watched before cutting interest rates. On February 16, Atlanta Fed President Bostic argued that the labor market and economy are strong, and the level of inflation remains to be seen.
The market's interest rate cut expectations were adjusted to the first rate cut in June, and the rate cut was 100bp for the whole year.
Interpretation:The US CPI slowed less than expected, with the services sector and housing being the main reasons. The CPI housing sub-item was 06%, the previous value was 04%；The service items are 07%, the previous value was 04%；In addition, medical and transportation services all rose month-on-month. Behind it is the support of the labor market and the resilience of wages.
As we mentioned earlier, the Fed is really not very necessary to cut interest rates, and it may be "a little later". There are five main reasons why the Fed is delaying rate cuts: 1) the economy is still growing above potential; 2) The supply and demand of the job market are close to balance, and the resilience is still strong3) Wage growth is difficult to decline further4) It is difficult for inflation in low-skilled labor services to cool down;5) Housing deinflation is limited. (See 5 reasons why the Fed is delaying rate cuts).
In the future, under the premise that inflation in the United States is not large**, the direction of the labor market will become an important consideration for the Fed to cut interest rates.
A new milestone has been added to the field of AI
Event: On February 16, OpenAI released the ** generative model SORA, which became a new milestone in the AI field.
Interpretation: SORA significantly surpasses the previous model in terms of duration and resolution, the two most critical metrics for generating models. The main model before the release of SORA, such as PIKA10, emu video, and gen-2 can be generated for 3 7 seconds, 4 seconds, and 4 16 seconds, respectivelyThe SORA can be generated for up to 60 seconds, can achieve 1080P resolution, and SORA can not only be generated based on text prompts**, but also has **editing and expansion capabilities, which is at the leading level.
SORA can better simulate the physical laws of a virtual world and produce a sense of lens, and its technology is very distinctive. First, it can generate coherent three-dimensional space movement with multiple lenses**. The second is to maintain the consistency of the same object under different angle of view lenses. In this way, the model can maintain the coherence and continuity of the movement of the characters, objects, and scenes in the world, and can have an impact on the elements in the world through fine-tuning for simple interaction. Compared with previous models such as PIKA, SORA generation can also accurately understand elements such as color style and create content with rich expressions and vivid emotions. And pay attention to the relationship between the subject and the background, so that the interaction between the subject and the background is highly smooth and stable, and the storyboard switching is logical. In an example given by the official, Sora has done a completely detailed description, even down to the ** detailed description. SORA is realistic in its attention to detail such as light and shadow reflections, movement patterns, camera movements, and more.
SORA is equivalent to ChatGPT3 of the language model5. It is a major breakthrough in the industry. The application of multimodal models will usher in the dawn in 2024, affecting many industries such as film and television, media and so on. From Apple's release of Vision Pro at the beginning of the year, the release of AIPC by major PC manufacturers, and the release of SORA by OpenAI this time, the world's innovation in artificial intelligence is accelerating, and the iteration is getting faster and faster. In the future, the use of AI-generated content for automatic creation will affect a wide range of fields. In the future, it is not impossible to "throw a ** and release a blockbuster", which will have a far-reaching impact on the current short **, live broadcast, film and television, animation, advertising and other industries. If 2023 is the first year of global AI model explosion and the first year of generation, then 2024 will enter the first year of AI generation.
In 2024, the demand for computing power will continue to rise under the development of multiple modalities, and AI companies will seek to enter the upstream of the industrial chain more vigorously, and move towards chip R&D and design layout, and even EDA and wafer fields. OpenAI founder Sam Altman has been paying attention to the supply and demand of its chips since 2018, investing in AI chip company Rain Neuromorphics, buying Rain's chips in 2019, and then seeking billions of dollars in financing for a chip company codenamed "Tigris" in November 2023. As a leader in the industry, the leader has built a set of computing power industry chain led by itself in the early stage, aiming to reshape the global semiconductor landscape through the AI industrial revolution. The independent construction of computing infrastructure is still an important direction for China to maintain progress with the world on the AI track. 
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