Edition 1 of February 6, 2024.
This material is an informational work, which mainly systematically tracks and sorts out the information and data related to the investment in the nuclear power industry sector, provides a reference material, and updates it regularly.
An overview of the industry in general
1) Nuclear power generation does not emit greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and does not emit harmful gases such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.
2) Globally, nuclear energy is not only an important pillar energy source to achieve the strategic goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, but also regarded as the industrial technology aggregator of the energy modernization industry, which plays a strategic role in driving the clean and low-carbon energy transformation and technological transformation.
3) According to a CCTV reporter's report, with the rapid development of the domestic nuclear technology application industry, nuclear technology has been widely used in many fields such as safety testing, irradiation breeding, and radiopharmaceutical production, serving economic and social development and people's lives, and the output value of nuclear technology application in China has approached 700 billion yuan.
4) According to the "Keynote Report on the Development of China's Civil Nuclear Technology Industry", China's civil nuclear technology has developed rapidly, with an annual output value of more than 300 billion yuan. In the future, the country will regard it as a strategic emerging industry, and the Prospective Industry Research Institute predicts that in the next ten years, the growth rate of the nuclear technology industry will remain at about 20%; It is expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2030, which is very potential.
Information about the policy
1) The 14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration clearly states that under the premise of ensuring safety, the construction of coastal nuclear power projects will be actively and orderly promoted, and new coastal nuclear power projects will be rationally arranged. By 2025, the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach about 70 million kilowatts.
2) The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly promotes the clean, low-carbon and efficient use of energy, promotes the clean and low-carbon transformation of industry, construction, transportation and other fields, actively develops nuclear power in a safe and orderly manner, and strengthens the construction of energy production, supply, storage and marketing system to ensure energy security.
About the basics
1) A nuclear power plant is a new type of power station that uses the energy contained in the nucleus of an atom to generate electricity. Nuclear power plants can be roughly divided into two parts: one is a nuclear island that uses nuclear energy to produce steam, including a reactor unit and a primary circuit system; The other part is the conventional island that uses steam to generate electricity, including a steam turbine generator system.
2) The fourth-generation nuclear power is completely different from the third-generation scheme and concept, it is not an extension of the third-generation technology, but a fundamentally revolutionary change. **The nuclear reactor is a next-generation reactor currently under development with major innovations in the reactor concept and fuel cycle, and its main characteristics are high safety and reliability, low waste generation, better economics, multi-purpose functions, and nuclear proliferation prevention.
4) At present, the vast majority of the nuclear power projects in operation in mainland China are operated by China National Nuclear Industry Corporation and China General Nuclear Power Corporation, and from the perspective of the existing units in operation, China General Nuclear Power Corporation accounts for the largest proportion, with an installed capacity of 5363%；The approved units under construction of CNNC ranked first, accounting for 3467%。
Current status and relevant statistics
1) According to the World Nuclear Energy Performance Report (2023) of the World Nuclear Association, as of December 31, 2022, China (mainland China) had 55 operational reactors, mainly located in the southeast coastal areas, with an installed capacity of 52,181 MW. After the United States and France, it ranks third in the world. China also has 21 reactors under construction, with a capacity of 22,084 megawatts, making it the country with the largest number of nuclear reactors under construction in the world. It is also reported that in July 2023, China approved the Shidaowan nuclear power projects in Shandong, Ningde in Fujian, and Xudabao in Liaoning, with a total of six units.
2) According to the data, as of December 31, 2022, there were 55 nuclear power units in operation in China (excluding Taiwan), with an installed capacity of 56,98574MWE (rated installed capacity). From January to December 2022, the cumulative power generation of nuclear power units in operation across the country was 4,1778.6 billion kWh, up 252%.
3) China's installed nuclear power capacity is expected to reach 47 million to 48 million MW in 2023, and nuclear power generation will reach 300 billion kWh, accounting for 6% of the country's power generation, reaching a breakthrough in the existing installed nuclear power capacity, while the installed nuclear power capacity has entered the trillion watt-hour mark. By 2025, it is expected that the installed capacity of nuclear power in operation will reach 70 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity under construction will be about 50 million kilowatts. The nuclear power industry is expected to increase installed capacity by 3%-5% per year, and will maintain steady growth over the next decade.
4) On December 29, 2023, after deliberation at the executive meeting, it was decided to approve the Jinqimen Nuclear Power Unit and the Taipingling Nuclear Power Unit. After this approval, the number of new nuclear power units approved in 2023 will reach 10. The number of nuclear power units approved in 2023 will be the same as in 2022, both hitting the highest level in nearly a decade.
5) On December 29, 2023, the Controllable Nuclear Fusion Innovation Consortium, composed of 25 central enterprises, scientific research institutes, universities, etc., was officially announced. As an ideal solution to mankind's energy problems, controlled nuclear fusion has become the forefront of scientific and technological competition among major powers.
Industry trends and outlook
1) The China Nuclear Energy Industry Association predicts that by 2030, China's installed nuclear power capacity in operation will reach 1200 million kilowatts. It is estimated that from 2023 to 2025 and during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the installed capacity of nuclear power will be CAGR of4%, and there is considerable room for long-term development of nuclear power.
2) Under the background of China's nuclear power approval rhythm entering the normalization and acceleration period, it is expected that the total investment scale of the domestic nuclear power industry will be close to 400 billion yuan in 2024, and the cumulative power generation of nuclear power is expected to account for 55%。
3) According to the research report of Cinda**, globally, the proportion of operable reactors in China in 2022 is only 133%, but 37 reactors are under construction2%, China is the most active region in the world in nuclear power construction. Nuclear power is a more economical way to generate electricity, and the cost of electricity is close to that of wind and solar power generation. Nuclear power is also a low-carbon power generation method, the whole life cycle carbon emissions are lower than photovoltaics, in the context of the rise in the proportion of new energy power generation, nuclear energy, as a stable baseload, is expected to complement new energy and support the operation of the power grid. It is expected that China's nuclear power generation will account for about 10% in 2035, and under the guidance of more active policies, the approval of nuclear power units in China has begun to show an acceleration trend.
4) According to the International Energy Agency's 2023 Electricity Market Report, the energy crisis has brought renewed attention to the role of nuclear power in promoting energy security and reducing carbon emissions, according to the China Post** research report. Global nuclear power is expected to grow at an average annual rate of nearly 4% between 2023 and 2025, and by 2025, nuclear power generation will increase by about 100 billion kilowatt hours per year, equivalent to one-eighth of the current nuclear power generation in the United States. By 2025, more than half of the increase in global nuclear power generation will come mainly from four countries: China, India, Japan and South Korea, with China adding 58 billion kWh, leading the way in absolute increments.
5) The CITIC** research report pointed out that in the context of carbon neutrality, nuclear energy will become a key pole in the future energy structure. Controlled nuclear fusion, or the ultimate solution to mankind's energy problem, has accelerated its commercialization process with the influx of related technological breakthroughs and capital. Looking forward to the future, there will be more fusion experimental devices around the world to achieve net energy gain, and with the synergy of basic research and top-level design, China will also maintain a leading position in the field of controlled nuclear fusion for a long time. From an application perspective, it is optimistic that the fusion-fission hybrid reactor scheme and the continuous development of AI and high-temperature superconductivity may significantly accelerate the implementation of fusion technology in the short term.
Relevant information of listed companies
1. Listed companies that involve concepts.
There are 129 companies in total, including 102 on the main boards of Shanghai and Shenzhen, 23 on the ChiNext Board, and 4 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
6.2 faucet ** case.
1) Market capitalization of major listed companies (as of February 5, 2024).
China General Nuclear Power 188.8 billion, China Nuclear Power 157.8 billion, China Nuclear Construction 18.6 billion.
2) The revenue of major listed companies in the first three quarters of 2023.
China General Nuclear Power 59.8 billion, China Nuclear Power 56.1 billion, China Nuclear Construction 78.6 billion.
3) Non-net profit deducted by major listed companies in the first three quarters of 2023.
China General Nuclear Power 96500 million, China's nuclear power 91400 million, China Nuclear Construction 13800 million.
7 Sector Medium to Long-Term Investment Opportunities.
1) Growth opportunities. At present, China's installed nuclear power capacity ranks third in the world, and the world's nuclear power reactors are mainly pressurized water reactors. The top three installed nuclear power plants in the world are the United States, France and China, with China accounting for about 14%. According to the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, the mainland has the world's second largest number of units under construction and operation. According to the Blue Book of China's Nuclear Energy Development Report (2023), it is estimated that China's installed nuclear power capacity in operation is expected to be the first in the world by 2030. The growth opportunities of the sector can be tracked through leading sectors such as China General Nuclear Power Corporation, China Nuclear Power Corporation, and China Nuclear Construction.