The National Bank of Cambodia recently ** that Cambodia's economic growth will reach 6 in 20244%, the recovery of the service sector and manufacturing sector will be the main driver, especially the recovery of tourism will play an important role in Cambodia's economic growth.
According to the October 2023 report of the International Monetary Organization, Cambodia's economic growth rate in 2023 will be 56%, which will grow by 6 in 20241%, Cambodia's economic growth rate in the past two years will be the first among ASEAN countries, much higher than the average economic growth rate in the Asia-Pacific region. According to the Strategic Plan for the Preparation of the Fiscal Budget (2024-2026) released by Cambodia**, Cambodia** has set an economic growth target of 6 for 20246%。Among them, the agricultural sector is expected to grow by 11 percent, mainly driven by crops, animals and aquaculture; The industrial sector is expected to grow by 85%, garment and non-garment manufacturing will maintain strong growth; The services sector is expected to grow by 69%。Cambodia's GDP will reach 351 in 2024$700 million, and GDP per capita will increase from $1,917 in 2023 to $2,071.
According to the World Bank, Cambodia's economic recovery has been consolidating since 2022 and is gaining momentum as initiatives to boost economic growth continue to be rolled out. According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs of Cambodia, Cambodia's foreign export volume will reach 46.8 billion US dollars in 2023, and China is still its largest partner. In 2023, Cambodia's foreign exports** will be 22.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18%, in the context of market demand in the United States and Europe, there was contrarian growth. This was mainly due to a 28-year-on-year increase in Cambodia's exports to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries8%, reaching nearly 8.2 billion US dollars, and exports to RCEP member countries accounted for 34 percent of Cambodia's total exports6%。It is expected that the preferential tariffs under the RCEP framework will continue to help Cambodia's exports maintain rapid growth in the next few years.
According to the report of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, Cambodia approved 268 investment projects in 2023, attracting 49% of investmentUS$200 million, up 22% year-on-year, and more than 300,000 jobs were created, with projects focused on industry, infrastructure, agriculture and agro-industries, and tourism. The top three foreign investors** are China, Singapore and Malaysia, with Chinese investment accounting for 66% of Cambodia's total investment.
In its Cambodian Economic Outlook Update in January this year, the ASEAN and China-Japan-Korea Macroeconomic Research Office pointed out that Cambodia's economic growth rate will reach 62%, which will rank second in the ASEAN region, behind the Philippines at 63% economic growth. Cambodia's inflation rate is expected to remain within a stable range this year and is expected to be 3., the report said1%。
International and regional organizations and Cambodian official reports on the Cambodian economy in 2024 all show that Cambodia's economic growth will exceed 6% this year. There are slight differences between the parties** due to the uncertainties caused by external risks and geopolitics in Cambodia in 2024. According to the National Bank of Cambodia report, Cambodia faces five major risks in the country, with the construction and real estate sector crisis listed as the "top challenge". The National Bank of Cambodia pointed out that due to the decrease in foreign investment into the real estate sector, the local construction and real estate market demand is weak.
Ensuring a sustained recovery in the tourism sector was ranked as the second biggest challenge. According to the Ministry of Tourism, Cambodia attracted a total of 5.45 million foreign tourists in 2023, an increase of nearly 140% year-on-year. Tourist arrivals from Thailand and Vietnam increased by 113% and 120% respectively. With nearly 550,000 Chinese tourists, it has become the third largest foreign tourist country in Cambodia. The National Bank of Cambodia commented that although there will be a significant increase in foreign tourists in 2023, most of the tourists from neighboring countries who enter by land will stay for a short period of time and the consumption is not high, and Cambodia is still under great pressure to attract more tourists from Asian countries such as China and the United States and Europe.
The rising non-performing loan ratio in the banking system also poses a major challenge to the Cambodian economy. The National Bank of Cambodia pointed out that the continuous increase in bad debts of banks will have an impact on bank profits and capital in the market, which will bring constraints to further invigorating the Cambodian market. In addition, climate change is likely to have a major impact on Cambodia's agriculture, with the average temperature expected to be 7 degrees Celsius higher than normal in 2024, which could lead to drought in more areas and become another major challenge to Cambodia's economic development.
The pandemic-induced private debt problem was ranked as the fifth challenge, with many households forced to borrow to tide over the situation, even though Cambodia's private debt remained manageable. According to a survey of more than 40,000 mortgage customers conducted by the National Bank of Cambodia, about 25% of borrowers have more than 40% of their income to repay their loans, and 6% of borrowers have more than 60% of their income. Economic ** reporter in Phnom Penh Wang Tao).
*:Economy**.