In the past 2024 Spring Festival ** week, the prosperity of China's consumer market is like a splendid fireworks show, which has set a new record with its amazing growth rate and full blooming trend.
According to authoritative data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of domestic tourists during the Spring Festival holiday this year reached 47.4 billion mark, a year-on-year increase of 343%, an increase of 190%, while the total spending of domestic tourists soared to 6,3268.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 473%, an increase of 7. compared to the same period in 20197%。
This not only means that the consumption boom during the Spring Festival holiday has significantly exceeded the level of the same period last year, but also broke through the historical peak before the epidemic in one fell swoop.
The consumption of the Spring Festival holiday is manifested in many fields, showing the strong release of Chinese people's consumption demand in an all-round way. Meituan's "Eat, Drink and Play" consumption insights revealed that the life service industry got off to a good start this Spring Festival, with the average daily consumption increasing by 36% compared to last year's Spring Festival and jumping more than 155% from the 2019 Spring Festival. According to Ctrip's travel report, the number of domestic scenic spot ticket orders during the Spring Festival soared by more than 60% year-on-year, and the popularity of inter-provincial travel continued unabated, accounting for 50% of orders, doubling from last year.
Fliggy's Travel Express revealed that this year's Spring Festival has become the hottest tourist holiday in history, with domestic travel bookings significantly exceeding the same period in 2019, and stunning the market with a year-on-year increase of more than three times that of medium- and long-term travel. Outbound travel has also reached its highest peak in nearly four years, with bookings surging nearly tenfold year-on-year, and more than half of the top overseas destinations have surpassed their performance in 2019.
The increase in the number of people clearing customs at ports, the amount of cross-border spending, and various leisure and entertainment expenditures are also eye-catching. The National Immigration Administration estimates that the average daily number of customs clearances at ports across the country during the Spring Festival holiday is close to 1.8 million, an increase of about 3 percent over last year's Spring Festival3 times, to recover to the level of inbound and outbound traffic during the Spring Festival in 2019. Alipay data shows that the amount of foreign tourists spending in China has shown explosive growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 500%, and at the same time, the amount of Chinese users spending abroad has also increased by 140% year-on-year.
In addition, the Spring Festival data from Hong Kong, Macau and Hainan are also eye-catching, with the number of visitors approaching the same period in 2018, the number of arrivals and departures from Macao hitting a record high, and the amount of duty-free shopping on Hainan Island exceeding 221.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%.
In terms of movie box office, according to the statistics of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of the afternoon of February 17, the box office of the Spring Festival schedule in 2024 has exceeded 8 billion yuan, breaking the historical record in 2021 and creating a new miracle under the premise of reducing the average ticket price.
In the face of such an unexpected Chinese New Year consumption frenzy, one can't help but ponder the driving factors behind it. According to the analysis, the vigorous prosperity of the Spring Festival consumer market this year is mainly due to three aspects:
First of all, the great improvement of the travel environment has played a key role. Compared with the Spring Festival holiday after the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control last year, people are generally worried about the possible recurrence of the epidemic. This year, the impact of the epidemic on the consumer market has almost disappeared, social operation and daily life have returned to normal, superimposed on the traditional Spring Festival peak season effect, people's travel demand has increased significantly, whether it is returning to their hometowns to visit relatives or friends, tourism, shopping and consumption, etc., have shown unprecedented enthusiasm and security.
Secondly, the phenomenal event of "Erbin fever" has given birth to a new round of cultural tourism consumption climax. Harbin quickly became popular during the New Year's Day holiday with its ice and snow culture, triggering widespread coverage and attracting a large influx of tourists. This successful case has led to a scramble across the country to tap local characteristic resources and enhance the attractiveness of the cultural tourism industry, in order to attract more foreign tourists during the Spring Festival holiday. The innovation and diversification of cultural and tourism activities in various places have greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of the people to travel, thus effectively promoting the overall prosperity of the consumer market.
In addition, the determination and intensity of the policy level to promote consumption continue to increase. Since the end of 2022, the management has prioritized the recovery and expansion of consumption, and the ** Economic Work Conference has emphasized the formation of a virtuous circle by activating potential consumption and expanding effective investment. The Ministry of Commerce proposed 2024 as the "Year of Consumption Promotion", adopting a two-wheel drive approach of policies and activities, actively creating diversified and integrated consumption scenarios and creating a strong consumption atmosphere. A series of creative and effective measures to promote consumption have been launched in various places, and these measures have been fully verified on the Spring Festival report card.
Although the performance of the consumer market during the Chinese New Year holiday is encouraging and reflects the signs of recovery of the national economy, we must be aware of the role of seasonal factors. Whether the economy can achieve sustained and steady recovery in the future still needs to be further observed and verified.
However, given China's strong economic foundation, complete industrial chain system, strong policy support and economic resilience, we have every reason to remain optimistic about economic development in 2024. The good performance of PMI data and financial data in January shows that the policy stimulus has picked up domestic and foreign demand, and the prosperity of the industry has risen, indicating that the economic growth of the whole year has made a good start.
The capital market has reacted positively, and the large consumption sector is expected to usher in multiple revaluation opportunities in 2024. After a period of **, the valuation depression effect of the large consumption sector is highlighted, and the current price-earnings ratio quantile value is 3 in five years15%, 21 in 10 yearsAt a low of 12%, industries such as medical aesthetics and food and beverage are also at the bottom of valuations. The low valuation has attracted the attention of capital, the stock price of the leading company has stabilized, the trading volume has been enlarged, and the traces of institutional investors' position layout are obvious, and it is expected that the follow-up space will be considerable.
In terms of specific investment strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to those consumer discretionary companies with core competitiveness, benefit from policy support and have significantly improved performance, grasp the opportunity of dip layout, and hold patiently, in order to obtain rich returns in the recovery of the future economic cycle.
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