The ** Economic Work Conference held in December 2023 set the tone for economic work in 2024 and deployed a number of key tasks. What do you think about the current economic situation? What are the new formulations for the conference? What are the key messages and policy signals? The reporter of "International Students" magazine interviewed meLi Shijie, President of Hainan Free Port Talent Development Research Institute and Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the Hainan Provincial Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative ConferenceA number of industry experts and scholars interpreted the first economic work conference.
Seek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break
The meeting pointed out that in 2024, it is necessary to adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and introducing more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment.
Since 2011, the first economic work conference has taken "seeking progress in stability" as the general tone of the work, and the first economic work conference has emphasized this general tone in previous years, but its connotation will have different emphases according to changes in the situation. Industry insiders interviewed by reporters said that from "taking the lead in stability and seeking progress in stability" to "seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking", the meeting sent a more positive policy signal. Tian Xuan, deputy dean of the PBC School of Finance of Tsinghua University and vice chairman of the Propaganda Committee of the European and American Returned Scholars Association, believes that the focus of "promoting stability through progress" proposed this time is "progress", which means that only in "progress" can we seek and consolidate the foundation of "stability". After efforts to promote domestic demand and boost confidence throughout 2023, China's economy has a relatively solid foundation for expected stabilization. In 2024, the macro policy will take the structural policy as the starting point, pay more attention to the overall effectiveness of the coordination and coordination of the package of policies, and put forward that the scale of social financing and the amount of money should match the expected target of economic growth and the first level, and the strength of counter-cyclical force is expected to be strengthened, and the fiscal policy will also go in the same direction as the monetary policy, which is expected to further moderate the increase on the basis of the final account deficit rate in 2023. At the same time, in the context of attaching importance to the overall effectiveness of policies, expectation management will become the focus of macroeconomic control policies in 2024. Tian Xuan said that "establishing first and then breaking" has risen from the previous policy orientation in a single field to the overall level of the general tone of macro policies. This means that in the new year, the country is determined to correct the overshoot problem of the past macroeconomic regulation and control, and strive to achieve policy continuity and stability, which also means that the future policy regulation and control will adhere to the "equal emphasis on nurturing increments and keeping stocks". "Seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking" is the main tone of economic development, and it is also a long-term doctrine of steady and far-reaching development. Wang Mengxi, a member of the Suggestions and Suggestions Committee of the European and American Returned Scholars Association and a special researcher of the Xijing Research Institute, believes that first of all, we must adhere to the smooth conversion of new and old kinetic energy, stabilize the economic fundamentals, and promote the steady improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the economy; Second, it is necessary to solve the fundamental problems of the economy with an enterprising attitude, and persist in doing a good job in the organic unity of reform, development, and social stability. Finally, it is necessary to deal with the two major economic blockages of real estate and local debt, adhere to innovation and guidance, and gradually form a new economic growth path. Dai Xulong, vice president of the China Association for International Economic Cooperation and president of the Beijing International Economic Management Technology Promotion Association, believes that the mention of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", coupled with "promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking", further reflects the confidence and determination to stabilize growth and promote development, emphasizing the work ideas and realization paths of solving difficulties in development and resolving risks in growth, that is, to promote "progress" on the basis of "stability", and achieve "stability" through "progress" in economic structure, development quality, and major reforms. From "development is the last word" to "we must adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era", it is a kind of advancing with the times, and high-quality development has become the core theme of China's economic development. Scientific and technological innovation has become the "number one task".
The meeting listed "leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation" as the first of the nine key tasks next year, and required "to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models and new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and to develop new quality productivity".
How to better promote industrial innovation through scientific and technological innovation? Li Shijie, president of the Hainan Free Port Talent Development Research Institute and deputy director of the Economic Committee of the Hainan Provincial Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, believesFirst of all, it is necessary to increase efforts to accelerate the cultivation of emerging industries, build a modern industrial system, accelerate the original research and development of emerging technologies such as a new generation of information technology and artificial intelligence, and the development of application scenarios, focus on the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and focus on the research and development and application of original technologies in future industrial fields such as brain-like intelligence and quantum information, and make every effort to build new competitive advantages in the future. Secondly, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a new model of scientific and technological integration, focus on the technical problems of "stuck neck" in key areas, create platform facilities to promote the integration and integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, promote the continuous deepening of industry-university-research cooperation, smooth the two-way channel between the supply of science and technology and the demand for application transformation, promote the cultivation and utilization of science and technology, improve quality and efficiency, and further transform scientific and technological advantages into industrial advantages. Finally, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a scientific and technological innovation support system, accurately absorb the top talents at the forefront of international science and technology and potential strategic scientists in emerging industries, organize social advantages to cooperate and improve the efficiency of collaboration and innovation level, such as improving the right to post dividends, project income dividends, equity incentives and other medium and long-term incentive mechanisms, and release the innovation and entrepreneurship vitality of high-tech talents. In the view of Lin Lin, a researcher at the Economic Research Center of the European and American Returned Scholars Association and a director of the Korean Branch, this meeting clearly mentioned important tasks such as "developing new quality productivity" and "promoting new industrialization", and its core idea is to take source innovation and disruptive innovation as the underlying support to improve the security level of the industrial chain, strengthen the digital and intelligent transformation of the industry, and then promote the construction of a modern industrial system. The first is to use disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies to give birth to new industries, new models and new kinetic energy, focusing on supporting the development of artificial intelligence and developing new quality productivity. Implement high-quality development actions for key industrial chains in the manufacturing industry, strengthen quality support and standard guidance, and improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain and chain. The second is to vigorously promote new industrialization, create a number of strategic emerging industries such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy, open up new tracks for future industries such as quantum and life sciences, widely apply digital intelligence technology and green technology, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. The third is to strengthen applied basic research and cutting-edge research, and strengthen the main position of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation. Fourth, encourage the development of venture capital and equity investment. The traditional investment and financing system is difficult to adapt to the development demands of enterprises in emerging industries, and the mechanism of risk sharing and benefit sharing of venture capital and equity investment can provide stable long-term funds for relevant enterprises and smooth the virtuous cycle of "science and technology-industry-finance". Tian Xuan said that the first economic work conference will list "scientific and technological innovation" as the "number one task" of next year's economic work, which is actually a change of thinking from "stimulus" to "restructuring momentum", and is a more long-term strategic thinking about expanding domestic demand. Due to the characteristics of "high-tech, high-risk, high-return, and asset-light" of science and technology enterprises, which do not match the traditional financing supply system, financing pressure is still the core problem restricting the development of science and technology enterprises, especially small and medium-sized micro science and technology enterprises. The meeting proposed to "lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, promote industrial innovation and development with scientific and technological innovation, and promote the new quality of industrial innovation and productivity" and "encourage the development of venture capital and equity investment", which is a clear deployment to activate China's scientific and technological innovation momentum from the aspects of improving the efficiency of macro policies and activating capital elements. In terms of capital elements, because equity investment and venture capital have a high failure tolerance, they can essentially match the attributes of long cycle, high failure rate and high risk of scientific and technological innovation, so they have a significant role in promoting innovation, especially hard-core scientific and technological innovation. Focus on expanding domestic demandA virtuous circle of consumption and investment has been formed
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to "focus on expanding domestic demand" and stressed that "it is necessary to stimulate potential consumption, expand profitable investment, and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other."
'Forming a virtuous circle of mutual promotion of consumption and investment' is a new formulation, reflecting that more attention will be paid to the promotion and transformation of consumption and investment in the expansion of domestic demand in 2024. Xu Hongcai, director of the Economic Research Center of the Institute of European and American Returned Scholars Association, executive vice president of the American Branch, and deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Society for Policy Sciences, said that the expansion of domestic needs to play a key role in investment, and at the same time play the fundamental role of consumption, so that investment and consumption can form a dynamic new balance at a higher level, and further accumulate momentum for sustainable economic development. Potential consumption is improved and upgraded consumption, such as consumer demand for health and elderly care, new consumption related to the digital economy, etc., the potential of these areas is very large, and investment should be further expanded. "'Efficient investment' not only meets market demand, but also has driving force and radiation, which can drive private investment and social capital to participate extensively, and at the same time mobilize the enthusiasm of foreign investment, increase more employment opportunities, and drive the development of the entire industrial chain. For example, we will expand investment in the fields of digital economy, intelligent manufacturing, and green and low-carbon, so as to cultivate new economic growth points and the development of emerging industries, and ultimately form a virtuous circle in which investment promotes consumption and consumption drives investment. Xu Hongcai said. Dean Li Shijie thinksConsumption and investment are important components of China's economic growth. For a long time, there have been problems such as the imbalance between the ratio of consumption and investment in China, which has created potential risks that cannot be ignored for the smooth operation of the economy. Investment can expand the scale of production, drive employment, thereby increasing the real income of residents, and then stimulate consumption, and consumption can promote the rational allocation and optimization of resources, and then guide and promote investment, and there should be a positive circular effect between the two. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to deepen the reform of the income distribution system, continue to increase the proportion of workers' income, continue to expand emerging consumption areas, and further and continuously promote the reform of the consumption side. Take multiple measures to boost the effective investment of the whole society, and drive the growth of total factor productivity with scientific and technological innovation; Promote the improvement of investment income and consumption potential, and inject a steady stream of new impetus into accelerating the construction of a new development pattern. Vigorously develop the digital economy
Digital economy" has been mentioned in the first economic work conference for five consecutive years, and this meeting mentioned all aspects of the development of the digital economy at a greater length, including increasing financial support, accelerating the development of artificial intelligence, widely using digital intelligence technology, vigorously developing digital consumption, supporting new infrastructure, expanding digital technology, and seriously solving the cross-border flow of data, etc., reflecting the increasing importance of the digital economy.
Vigorously developing the digital economy is the only way for high-quality development. Lu Junqun, executive director of the Research Center for Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy of the Institute of European and American Returned Scholars Association, executive vice president and secretary general of the American Branch, and secretary-general of the Institute of Artificial Intelligence International Governance of Tsinghua University, believes that first of all, the digital transformation and upgrading of traditional industries is a very important aspect of the development of the digital economy. New kinetic energy. Secondly, from the perspective of the consumer side or the demand side, it is necessary to expand digital consumption, actively develop the upgraded consumption of smart home and other intelligent products, and enhance the people's sense of digital life experience. Finally, from the perspective of opening up to the outside world and international cooperation, it is necessary to expand digital **, cross-border e-commerce and other businesses, and focus on solving the problem of cross-border data flow, which needs to maintain a dynamic balance between development and security as much as possible. Lin Lin said that the digital economy is a hot spot for global economic development and the key to improving its comprehensive competitiveness with foreign countries. The digital economy is also an important part of the future "modern industrial system" and "new industrialization", and an important engine for stable growth and transformation. At the same time, new technologies such as the digital economy can change residents' preferences from the supply side, promote the optimization of demand-side structure, promote endogenous private consumption, private equipment and software investment, and create endogenous demand momentum in the future. The digital economy is an emerging industry, and the key to the development of the digital economy is whether it can obtain various types of funds. However, after the transition of the new crown epidemic prevention and control, capital investment tends to be cautious and conservative. **The Economic Work Conference emphasized financial support for the digital economy, which will effectively enhance investor confidence. With the help of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data, digital finance can expand the investment and financing channels of enterprises, and further optimize the investment and financing structure while promoting product innovation, service innovation and business innovation of enterprises. 