My senior friend Mr. Wang Wenhua has devoted himself to the study of Qian Xuesen's academic thought and aerospace science and technology for more than 40 years, and has published several books such as "Qian Xuesen's Record", "Qian Xuesen's Emotional World", "Qian Xuesen's Academic Thought", "Humanities Qian Xuesen", "Qian Xuesen and Sichuan" and so on.
Recently, he wrote an article "Qian Xuesen's Scientific Prediction", which sorted out 11 important predictions of Qian Xuesen, and I will introduce them to you.
1. Foresight of high-performance clean propellant for rockets.
Qian Xuesen was born in 1911 and went to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1935 to study for a master's degree at the age of 24. Before going to the United States, he wrote an article "Rocket", discussing the principle of rocket ascent, making a comparative analysis of the performance, technology and safety of rocket fuel, and also putting forward the idea of ** rocket, rocket plane, interstellar navigation with the help of rockets, etc., which seemed incredible at the time and are still out of reach today.
On October 31, 2019, on the 10th anniversary of Qian Xuesen's death, China Aerospace magazine published an article saying:
The high-performance clean propellants mentioned in the ** "Rocket" published in your youth are used in a new generation of launch vehicles.
2. Foresight of nuclear-powered rocket engines.
In 1948, Qian Xuesen published the world's first article on nuclear-powered rockets, "About Rocket Nuclear Energy Engines". In 1949, "Rockets with Nuclear Energy and Other Thermal Injectors with Nuclear Energy" was published.
On August 23, 2019, Science and Technology reported that the United States plans to develop a nuclear-powered spacecraft. The United States recently said that it will develop the next generation of nuclear thermal propulsion technology, using the thermal energy generated by the nuclear fission reaction to propel spacecraft for deep space exploration. Rex Graftden, a member of the National Space Commission, said nuclear-powered engines are expected to allow spacecraft to reach Mars in three to four months, about twice as fast as the fastest conventionally powered spacecraft.
3. Foresight of a human landing on the moon.
In 1947, after Qian Xuesen was promoted to professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he gave an academic report entitled "Flying into Space" at the invitation of the college. In his report, he predicted that humans would land on the moon within 30 years. The report caused a sensation, and in 1947 Time magazine published a special report on Qian Xuesen and **.
On July 21, 1969, the American "Apollo-11" landed on the moon, verifying Qian Xuesen's prediction 22 years ago.
Fourth, the prediction of Qian Xuesen's ballistics.
In 1945, on the eve of the end of World War II, Qian Xuesen came to Germany with his teacher von Kármán and had in-depth exchanges with many German rocket experts. When the re-entry of the missile occurs, the direction is not well controlled. After many times, the accuracy of the missile will be somewhat reduced. Qian Xuesen envisioned: Can the missile no longer fly out of the atmosphere after it re-enters the atmosphere, but glide through the atmosphere? So the idea of "boost-glide" ballistics was born, which later generations called "Qian Xuesen ballistics".
Current applications of Qian Xuesen's ballistics include hypersonic strikes** and new flying missiles. The US HTV-2 and Russia's YU-71 have all adopted the "Qian Xuesen ballistic," which has significantly improved the missile's penetration capability and combat effectiveness.
The DF-17 missile, which was displayed at the 2019 Chinese National Day military parade, is expected to have a speed of Mach 5 to Mach 20 and a range of about 2,000 kilometers. It is fast, the trajectory is unpredictable, and it is difficult to intercept. Since many technical details have not been made public, it is not clear whether it uses the Qian Xuesen ballistic, or the Sanger ballistic, or whether it is an improvement of both. However, with its speed advantage, the DF-17 can ignore most anti-missile systems. Martial arts in the world, only fast is not broken.
V. Foresight of the Space Shuttle Concept.
In December 1949, Qian Xuesen made a report entitled "The Prospect of Rockets as High-Speed Carriers" at the annual meeting of the American Rocket Society, and put forward the concept of "rocket airliner" for the first time, laying a theoretical foundation for the space shuttle.
Qian Xuesen's rocket theory shocked Europe and the United States. The New York Times called him a "valuable Chinese scientist" and "the most talented scientist in the field of rocketry in the United States." The Los Angeles Times called him "one of the world's top rocket experts", "the hottest scientist" in the field of jet propulsion, "the most remarkable and outstanding authority", "the rocket genius trained by the United States", etc.
In his 1962 book Introduction to Interstellar Navigation, Qian Xuesen once again expounded the concept of a space-to-earth shuttle carrier system using a large aircraft equipped with a jet engine as the first-stage carrier and an aircraft equipped with a rocket engine as the second-stage carrier.
In addition to the above-mentioned nuclear-powered rockets and space shuttles, from the 40s to the early 60s of the 20th century, Qian Xuesen also put forward a number of important concepts in the field of rockets and aerospace. For example, in 1948, Qian Xuesen showed his idea of a supersonic aircraft to everyone at the annual meeting of American rocketry: rocket boost-re-entry taxi. In this way, the plane can fly from New York to Paris in one hour, and Qian Xuesen also drew a picture to show his ideas.
In 1953, Qian Xuesen studied the possibility of interplanetary flight and proposed the possibility of taking off in satellite orbit. These ideas have been realized.
VI. Foresight of Aerospace Aircraft.
In September 1989, Qian Xuesen proposed in an article entitled "Cherishing the Successful Experience of the 'Two Bombs and One Satellite'" that in the middle of the 21st century, a real aerospace aircraft should be realized as a carrier system that takes off horizontally from the ground and lands horizontally.
Of course, this problem is extremely difficult, because it is necessary to build an aircraft with 25 times the speed of sound. All the materials needed were new. How to combine the engine power system with the airframe system? It's also a completely new problem.
We will aim at the real high technology of the mid-21st century and do advance research. It is hoped that China's aerospace industry will be able to catch up and outperform others.
7. Foresight on the development of new energy vehicles.
In August 1992, Qian Xuesen sent a letter to Zou Jiahua, then Vice Premier of China, suggesting that China skip the gasoline and diesel stages and directly enter the new energy stage to reduce environmental pollution.
It is said that Qian Xuesen is the person Musk admires the most. On December 11, 2012, the 101st anniversary of Qian Xuesen's birth, SpaceX posted a tweet to commemorate it.
8. Foresight of the development of high technology.
In the early 80s of the 20 th century, Qian Xuesen predicted that high technology would be a science and technology with rapid development, a science and technology that was highly integrated with economic development, a science and technology that was globally interdependent, a science and technology that developed in an increasingly coordinated manner between science and technology, economy, society, and environment, and science and technology that would unify natural science, social science, and philosophy.
9. Foresight of the Sixth Industrial Revolution.
1984 year. Qian Xuesen proposed in his academic report at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences that due to the development of biological science and technology, a new industrial revolution will emerge in human society, which will be the sixth industrial revolution.
10. Foresight of the Seventh Industrial Revolution.
While predicting the sixth industrial revolution, Qian Xuesen also predicted the seventh industrial revolution that will occur in the 21st century, that is, the industrial revolution of the human body, including medicine and life sciences: how people can better understand themselves and live a healthier life. This will also lead to social change.
Ten. 1. Prediction that China will be strong and prosperous in the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.
In 1979, Qian Xuesen published the article "Technology of Organizing and Managing Socialist Construction-Social Engineering", which popularized the ideas and methods of system engineering organization and management to the organization and management of society, put forward the technical problems of organization and management within the scope of the state, systematically discussed the objects and tasks of social engineering, and believed that social engineering is a scientific method for transforming society, building society and managing society. Qian Xuesen pointed out that the development strategy formulated by our party is to reach the world's advanced level in the 100 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China. To complete this path, it is necessary to have foresight. This foresight comes from systems science, which is a modern scientific method of organization, management, decision-making and leadership, that is, a systems engineering method.
In 1987, when Qian Xuesen visited the United Kingdom, he gave a speech to some Chinese students in London. He said that we should not only see the 80s of the 20th century now, but also the end of the century. This is not enough. Because by the year 2000 our per capita GDP was still lagging behind the developed countries of the world, and it would not be until the middle of the 21st century. By the time of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the country's per capita output value will be close to the current advanced level in the world. At that time, the People's Republic of China was invincible in the world.