Over the past few years, China's real estate market has undergone tremendous changes like a choppy sea. Policy regulation, market volatility and changes in the economic situation have all had a profound impact on the industry like a storm. As the soul of the real estate industry, Wang Shi's research and judgment on the market has always attracted much attention. In a recent interview, he once again conducted an in-depth analysis of the property market in 2024 and put forward the following three eye-catching points:
First of all, he pointed out that real estate companies may experience a major reshuffle this year and next. Companies with debt ratios of more than 100% and those that expand blindly may face bankruptcy or restructuring. It's like a brutal survival game, where the weak will be eliminated and the strong will be stronger.
Secondly, Wang Shi believes that this round of property market adjustment will take 3-5 years. During this period, thunderstorms of small and medium-sized real estate enterprises may occur frequently, and the problem of unfinished buildings of large real estate enterprises will also affect the confidence of home buyers. This will take time to gradually resolve and restore market stability and homebuyer confidence.
Finally, Wang Shi is full of confidence in the future real estate market. He expects that in the future, housing prices in various places will show a trend of "stable and declining", with **12-15% per year. After several years of adjustment, the market will achieve a soft landing and lay a solid foundation for future development.
It is worth mentioning that Wang Shi accurately ** the skyrocketing and adjustment of China's real estate market in 2007, proving his outstanding ability in the market. Also in 2014, he put forward the concept of "housing for living, not speculation", which became the core idea of real estate market regulation at that time. This shows that Wang Shi's insights are not groundless, but based on a deep understanding and comprehensive research of the industry.
In the face of the continuous downward trend of the industry cycle, the first department has also actively introduced relevant policies to ensure that the industry cycle will not fluctuate too much. They adjust mortgage rates and down payment ratios to provide more lenient financing terms for homebuyers. However, there are opportunities and risks. In this case, the risk to the financial system is likely to increase, especially if house prices are volatile, and homebuyers may fall into a higher debt risk.
In addition, in order to support urban renewal plans, some cities have begun to implement "room ticket" policies. This policy encourages homebuyers to participate in urban renewal programs, but it can also trigger speculation. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor market movements and handle them cautiously to avoid potential risks.
The gradual relaxation of the purchase restriction policy is also an important trend in the current property market. Most second- and third-tier cities, except for the first-tier cities, have fully relaxed the purchase restriction policy, providing more buyers with the opportunity to buy a home. However, this policy has also brought about excessive speculation in the market, causing housing prices in some cities to be too fast in the short term**, exacerbating market instability.
All of these policies have pros and cons. Policy adjustments will not slow down, but will be more frequent to avoid a hard landing in the property market. And 2024 is the most critical year, and policy support will be even closer.
At this important moment when the market has entered the mid-term adjustment stage, Wang Shi once again judged the trend of the industry. His advice provides us with an entry point for thinking, which helps us better understand where the market is heading and what is risky. However, when making decisions and planning investments, we also need to consider other factors and fully evaluate the market situation to make an informed choice.
2024 will surely become a turning point in the property market, and it will face more opportunities and challenges. As Wang Shi has judged, after next year's deep adjustment, enterprises with high debt ratios and poor cash flow will gradually decline and go bankrupt. The market will gradually regain confidence and enter a period of stability. As an ordinary investor, 2024 is also a critical year. We need to grasp new investment opportunities and guard against risks that have not yet been exposed. Stability is the key to our response to the challenge, and we must seize every possible opportunity to achieve financial freedom.
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