In the first week of the new year, Big A failed to continue the momentum before New Year's Day. The beautiful New Year's wish was smashed to pieces by the "black opening"**.
The Shanghai Composite Index for the whole week**-152%, which is not too ugly, mainly due to the hard work of coal and bank stocks. The CSI 300 index fell sharply by -297%, the decline of the GEM index is even more exaggerated: **612%, there has never been such a big weekly decline in the whole of 2023.
In contrast, the dividend index bucked the trend last week**398%, the market's funds open the strongest defense mode in the New Year, what are you afraid of?
It can only be said that the bear market has been going on for too long. Shareholders and people, public and private offerings, and even foreign capital, the psychological tolerance has reached the limit!The slightest hint of turmoil is enough to trigger panic and risk aversion.
You can't fall before dawn
The whole market was filled with the smell of emo, and in order to keep myself a little sober, I still struggled to get up and asked myself a few questions:
How much has the market gone from its highs?
Since its 2021 high, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 22%, the CSI 300 Index by 44%, and the ChiNext Index by 50%.
This decline is comparable to any bear market since 2008, so it can be regarded as an overfall, right?
Is the market cheap enough?
We have also talked about this problem in previous articles: the price-to-book ratio of the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 has reached the lowest value in history, the price-to-book ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index has also recently appeared at the second lowest level in history, and the price-to-book ratio of the CSI All-Share Index is in the top 0 of the cheapest since the beginning of 20053%。
The a** field can now be said to be the floor price, which is cheap enough.
Will the short-term market continue?
The short-term trend of the market is difficult**, after all, investor sentiment is already extremely fragile and cannot withstand any wind and grass.
But the market has fallen to the present, and whether it is the decline, valuation and other indicators, or the risk premium and market sentiment, it is very similar to the bottom of the past few bear markets. There should not be much room for A-shares to continue to **, but it is really hard to say when it will really bottom out.
How do I do that?
It's better to bear with it, cutting meat is definitely not cost-effective, and the pain of cutting on the floor will be proportional to the ** amplitude of the market in the future. The money in *** will not affect daily life;After the monthly salary arrives, a part of it will still be left to make up the position, after all, such a cheap ** is rare in history;If you don't pick it up if it's cheap, I'm afraid you'll regret it later.
Hold on, you can't fall before dawn!
Only high-dividend assets are making money
After New Year's Day, ** took a sharp turn again, which really caught people off guard.
There are two reasons for this:
The first was announced on December 31December PMI data, still below the 50 line and has been lower for three consecutive months, indicating that the pressure of slowing manufacturing production expansion and insufficient demand still exists, stimulating the sensitive nerves of the market.
The second is the Federal Reserve's response to this yearCut interest ratesThe attitude is a bit "hawkish" again. After New Year's Day, U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded, especially last Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data for December that exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March fell back to 50%, and the number of rate cuts this year is expected to decrease.
In addition, there is also a rumor that after New Year's Day, the public offering ** was allowed to sell on a net basis, but it was not verified.
But in the final analysis, it's still the big A himself who is too uncompetitive: when the overseas rose last year, you didn't take the usual path and went alone**;Last week overseas started to fall, but you fell harder than them. Who's going to reason with this?
In terms of market style, at the beginning of the year, institutions are still seeking stability in an uncertain environmentIncreased allocation to high-dividend assets.
China's Shenhua's market value surpassed CATL, and the old energy giants completed the overtaking of new energy giants!
The five major state-owned banks continued to start the year, and the share price of Agricultural Bank of China hit a record high. Under the condition of being dragged down by real estate and putting pressure on profits, how can a major state-owned bank still be so bullish?In addition to Huijin's increased holdings,Low valuation, high dividendsIt should be an important reason to meet the requirements of a safe-haven asset.
The dividend index rose sharply against the trend, the technology growth industry accelerated its dive, and the market style was fragmented to the extreme.
How to allocate the money in your hand to feel more at ease?
In the short term, it is not recommended to take a heavy position in assets that chase high dividendsThe reason is that the trading is already relatively crowded, and the trading congestion of the CSI Dividend Index has reached a high level in nearly three years. If investor sentiment improves and the market opens**, high-dividend assets will become more volatile.
But from the perspective of medium-term allocation, last year was highly regarded"Barbell Strategy"., it seems to be still usable this year. At both ends of the barbell are high-dividend assets, such as various dividend indices**;At the other end of the spectrum is the technology growth category**. No matter how the market style is switched, there is always one end of the barbell that can get up.
Of course, there are more conservative voices in the market, such as some institutions advocating the use of low valuation strategies or central enterprise strategies. Do not seek merit, but seek no fault.
There is also the recent popular "three points quantification, three points overseas, three points of dividends, and one point of helplessness", which is completely disappointed in the active management of domestic partial stocks.
* It's already miserable, it feels like I didn't have anesthetic for surgery. But get through it no matter whatIn a market that is against human nature, we must use reason to overcome fear.