After the Kokang Alliance took Lao Cai, the "Three Brothers Alliance" and Min Aung Hlaing held a third negotiation in Kunming from January 7 to 9, but the talks collapsed due to too large differences. The Burmese army immediately stepped up air raids on Lao Cai, and the "Three Brothers Alliance" also quickly assembled and organized about 120,000 people, ready to lay down Mujie County and Lashio County, have formed a three-sided encirclement.
Judging from the current situation, the "Three Brothers Alliance" has seized a large amount of ** equipment, and the number of people is also very abundant, and it is not a problem to take the above-mentioned areas, but there may be difficulties in the rear defense. If they win in the end, it will be equivalent to restoring the entire area of Kokang's history.
However, the outside world analyzes that the "Three Brothers Alliance" may have made up its mind to hit the port of Blyujiao, because Mujie and Lashio are Chinese settlements, and they are also the passing areas of China-Myanmar ** and oil and gas pipelines. In this way, they will be able to realize the "Huabang autonomy" they have previously advocated and improve the economic lifeline.
However, although the combat effectiveness of the Burmese army is very poor, and the Kokang Allied forces are basically young soldiers who have been trained, it is still very difficult to storm the city due to the lack of heavy ** and prevention and control equipment.
According to the "Summary of Results" released by the Kokang Alliance: Since Operation 1027, the Allied Army has liberated more than 300 strongholds, 8 towns, killed and wounded more than 2,000 enemies, and captured and accepted more than 4,000 surrenders. It was announced that the Burmese armed forces, which had been entrenched in Kokang for 29 years, had been completely cleared.
Perhaps they had already planned in their own minds, otherwise they would have been able to reach an agreement on the realization of Kokang regional autonomy at the third negotiation, because the Tatmadaw recognized that Min Aung Hlaing had acquiesced in the surrender of Brigadier General Thontun Min.
At present, six high-ranking officers of the Burmese army, including Brigadier General Thontun Myint, chairman of Kokang, Brigadier General Mo Kyaw Du, commander of Lao Cai, Brigadier General of the 55th Division, Brigadier General of the 12th Military Commander, Brigadier General of the 14th Military Commander, and Brigadier General of the 16th Military Commander, were all taken to the Northeast Military Region Headquarters in Lashio by Burmese military planes from Dangyang.
In addition, the Burmese army took the initiative to blow up the Ina Bridge on the Lashio Nandu Highway, which is an important transportation artery into Lashio, and after it was blown up, there was only one road left. The Burmese army's insistence on Lashio has also revealed the determination of the brigadier who had previously surrendered in Lao Cai to continue to resist, especially since there are still 800,000 ethnic Chinese in the city, which will make the whole conflict full of uncertainty.
However, according to Peng Deren's New Year's Day speech on the Internet, we can still see that the "state-building vision" of the "Three Brothers Alliance", even if the follow-up battle will continue, such a civil war will not stop. After all, for the Allied forces, war is not an end, but a means to achieve political demands, and the fighting will not stop without Min Aung Hlaing recognizing the legitimate rights of the areas controlled by the "Three Brothers Alliance".
At present, there is a good reason for the Kokang Allied Army to continue fighting, and the whereabouts of 10 people wanted by the Chinese side, including Bai Socheng, are unknown, and the drug-related personnel wanted by the Chinese side are missing, Peng Deren clearly pointed out: If we want to completely eradicate the Kokang electric fraud and rescue the trapped compatriots, we must eliminate the "four major families" and the protective umbrella behind them.
In his New Year's Day speech, he mentioned the term "historical jurisdiction", which actually meant the liberation of the first special region of Shan State in Myanmar and the realization of Chinese autonomy. Whether it will succeed or not will take time to verify.