Kunpeng Project
Text丨He Yan
Editor丨Xie Changyan
At the beginning of 2024, the concept of ** super brand has changed. Year-to-date in 2024 (as of February 1), Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Shuanghui Development and other related ** against the market have all risen by more than 5%, and the performance is very bright, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange A index is **688%, SZSE Component Index**1348%。
As of February 1, among the 23 trading days in 2024, the number of ** companies exceeding 3,000 has been as high as 17 days, and the market is strong in risk aversion. The main reason why super brands are in the spotlight is because of their low valuations, high dividends, and stable performance. According to institutional analysis, at present, the domestic economic development has entered a high-quality growth stage from a high-speed growth stage, and these super brand companies with stable performance and stable high dividend returns will be further valued by the market in the future.
The dividend index is in a league of its own
Super brands attract market attention
Wind shows that compared to the depth adjustment of the entire A** field, the dividend index is 3A 66% gain led the core index, while the second-placed SSE 50 led the core index by 335%。
In addition to the focus on dividends, attractive valuations and stable performance have also become factors for the market to consider in the long run. Recently, super brands have attracted market attention due to low valuations, high dividends and stable performance.
Take the Wind Brand Leading Index (8841136WI), the index currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1987, while the median index is 2571, with an average of 2828, the P/E ratio is at 10At the 15% percentile, current valuations are attractive compared to history. At the same time, the valuation gap between the valuation of the leading brand index and the mainstream indices in the market such as Wind All A, CNI 1000 and CSI 800 continues to shrink, which also reflects a certain valuation advantage compared with mainstream indexes.
In 2022, the brand leading index achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 30476.8 billion yuan, with a total cash dividend of 17829.5 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 5850%, and the number of participating companies reached 44 (48 companies in the index). The agency expects that in 2023, most superbrand companies will continue to be in 2022.
The performance continued to be strong
The stock price is relatively firm
In addition to Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, Shuanghui Development, etc., which recorded more than 5% market performance, most of the super brand companies are very "resistant", such as Roborock, SAIC, Yili, Jinshiyuan, Kweichow Moutai and other leading companies have relatively excellent performance.
From the perspective of performance, the companies related to the brand leading index show a certain degree of stability. In the third quarter of 2023, 36 of the 48 companies in the brand leading index achieved positive year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the parent company, accounting for 75%, compared with 5038%。At present, 16 companies in the brand leading index have announced their 2023 annual report performance forecasts, except for Ecovacs and Dia shares, which are expected to achieve a year-on-year decline in net profit, others are expected to achieve year-on-year **, and the number of companies is expected to account for 875%。The net profit attributable to the parent company of FAW Jiefang and BYD increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of Yunnan Baiyao, Roborock, Dong'e Ejiao and Proya increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
At the same time, the related companies have demonstrated a certain degree of performance continuity and stability. Taking Dong'e Ejiao as an example, the company expects to achieve an annual net profit of 11000000 yuan to 1160000 yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 41%-49%. As for the reasons for the performance growth, Dong'e Ejiao said that in 2023, the company will adhere to the consumer-centric, all-round and multi-perspective brand awakening and brand renewal, and build brand barriers; Firmly implement the "two-wheel drive" growth model of pharmaceuticals + consumer health products, strengthen terminal dynamic sales, and tap the growth potential; Solidly implement the new product cultivation strategy, strive to build the "Royal Paddock 1619" men's tonic brand, and continue to enrich the non-Ejiao product line; We will comprehensively launch the construction of "one center" and "three highlands" innovation platforms to lead the innovation and upgrading of the industrial chain.
In fact, in the recent deep adjustment, banks, home appliances, coal, public utilities, food and beverage sectors fell less than 5%, in this regard, Cinda ** Society Zero & Beauty Care Chief Analyst Liu Jiaren analyzed that the first 4 of them are high dividend sectors with high recent heat and bear market risk, while the resistance of the food and beverage sector reflects the investment value of the low-valuation consumer sector, especially the leading targets, such as Kweichow Moutai, Tsingtao Beer, Yili Shares, Haitian Flavor, Aimeike, Low-level consumer leaders such as Huali Group have shown obvious excess returns.
Liu Jiaren believes that this phenomenon may come from several aspects: first, the incremental funds on the capital side may usually be preferentially allocated to large-capitalization targets in the CSI 30, especially those with acceptable performance growth and historically low valuations; Secondly, the leading brand of fundamental consumption is relatively risk-resistant in daily operation. Therefore, it is recommended to gradually increase the allocation of low-level consumer leaders, which has anti-falling attributes, and is also expected to take the lead with solid fundamentals in the follow-up.
Its further analysis said that although the Shanghai Composite Index has accumulated **823%, but if calculated on an arithmetic average, the average decline of all A-share targets since the beginning of the year has reached 2324%, indicating that in the current market environment, small-capitalization targets with relatively high valuations that cannot be covered by incremental funds should be avoided as much as possible (the Wind Micro-Cap Index, which has experienced a five-year bull market, has fallen by 27 since the beginning of this year93%）。
The industry unanimously expects that the domestic economic development will enter a high-quality growth stage from a high-speed growth stage, and companies with stable performance and stable high dividend returns will be further valued by the market in the future.
(The ** mentioned in the article is only for example analysis, not as a recommendation for buying and selling.) ）