Recently, the national pig price has continued to be the highest price, especially the slaughtered pigs have exceeded 15 yuan kg, refreshing the recent high. According to the analysis, the Spring Festival is approaching, the bullish mentality of the breeding side is heating up, the sentiment of reluctance to sell at a high price is enhanced, and the residents on the demand side have begun to stock up, and the white goods have improved slightly, which has played a positive role in the continued price of pigs.
According to the analysis of Galaxy**, during JanuaryHogs**The overall presentation is *** strong in the north and weak in the south. Affected by the fourth quarterHogsUnder the influence of the epidemic, the overall number of adult pigs in the northern region has been phased out, resulting in a relatively tight pig source, an increase in the number of inflows in the southern region, and an overall stronger increase in the northern market than in the south.
However, after entering February, the supply and demand situation may improve. On the one hand, the disruption during January is more related to the epidemic, but the possible disruption during February is relatively limited, because the number of medium and large pigs affected by the epidemic is less than 100 kg. On the other hand, affected by the recent price increases, there has been a reluctance to sell in the north and south, but under normal circumstances, the new year is the off-season for pork consumption, and it is easy to decline, so the big pigs in the barn may need to be fully digested before the year, which may have an adverse impact on the market in February.
On the demand side, demand is likely to pick up in January. Although there is almost no increase in apparent consumption, because of the same amount of consumption***, the actual demand may be higher than the original. Social zero data shows that since August, social zero has begun to grow year-on-year, and there has been an accelerating trend recently, which indicates that catering consumption may continue to improve.
In the medium to long term, DecemberHogsThe reduction of production capacity accelerated, and the epidemic began to ease during January, but there are still sporadic performances in some areas, so the reduction of production capacity may still be continuing. Even if the industry is generally optimistic about next year's pig prices in the near future,PigletsIt's still relatively fast, but the speed of recovery in demand is still unknown. Therefore, pig prices may still maintain a slight upward trend in the short term.
At the national level, in order to stabilize pig prices, ensure the market and stabilize meat prices, the state has taken a series of measures. Recently, the state said that it will further increase its efforts to straighten out the relationship between market regulation and regulation, coordinate pork production and regulation, and ensure the stability of the market.
In addition, the state also said that it will actively support the adjustment of policies, strengthen the supervision of farms, slaughtering enterprises and the meat market, and severely crack down on illegal behaviors such as inflated and inflated, so as to protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers.
To sum up, the recent trend of pig prices continuing to rise sharply may continue for some time. ** The disconnection of the end and the reluctance to sell the bar, as well as the signs of stocking and consumption recovery on the demand side, have had a positive impact on pig prices. At the policy level, the state has taken a series of measures to protect the market and stabilize pig prices. However, in the medium to long term, the reduction of production capacity and the recovery of demand are still key factors in the development of pig prices, which need to be further observed.