List of high-quality authors
The war between China and the United States has been going on for several years, and the two sides have put pressure on each other in terms of tariffs, technology, human rights, etc., resulting in a significant drop in the amount of money between the two countries.
According to recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, in 2023, the total value of U.S. imports from China will drop to $427 billion, while the total value of goods imported from Mexico will reach more than $475 billion, and Mexico will surpass China for the first time to become the largest importer of the United States.
Does this mean that the United States and China's ** chain have been decoupled?
The U.S. Department of Commerce recently released a shocking set of data: in 2023, the total value of U.S. imports from Mexico reached more than $475 billion, an increase of nearly 5% from 2022.
The total value of U.S. imports from China is only $427 billion, down 20% from 2022. This means that for the first time in 20 years, Mexico has surpassed China to become the largest importer of the United States.
This change reflects the results of the United States' efforts to seek decoupling from China's ** chain in the war with China.
Ever since Trump launched his war against China, the United States has been trying to reduce its dependence on Chinese goods, find more alternative chains, or relocate manufacturing to the United States.
After Biden took office, he did not change this policy direction, but continued to impose high tariffs and sanctions on China. Judging from this set of ** data released by the United States, the United States' "decoupling and breaking the chain" seems to have achieved certain results.
But is this effect really in the interests of the United States? Will the United States really be able to wean itself off its dependence on China? Will the U.S. really be able to find a better partner for the chain? These questions are worthy of our in-depth study.
The United States believes that by decoupling from China's ** chain, it can reduce its economic dependence on China, protect its own competitive advantage, and at the same time promote the revival of manufacturing and job growth in the United States. But is this idea really viable?
In fact, the ** chain between the United States and China has not been completely decoupled, but has undergone some changes and adjustments. On the one hand, U.S. imports from China have not disappeared entirely, but have been partially transferred to other countries, such as Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia, Poland and Morocco.
These countries are all countries that have benefited from the Sino-American war, and they have become middlemen for American imports.
However, most of the value of the goods in these countries is still created by China, because many of the production plants in these countries are Chinese companies or use Chinese raw materials and components.
The United States ** "Wall Street** once admitted that American companies found that it is not simple to decouple from "Made in China", and without China's participation, these companies could not produce at all.
On the other hand, some of the goods imported by the United States from China enter the American market through "transit points" such as Mexico.
Some Chinese manufacturers have set up factories in Mexico, taking advantage of the freedom** agreements signed by the United States, Mexico and Canada to circumvent U.S. tariffs and sanctions against China and continue to export goods to the United States.
ABC has reported that Chinese manufacturers have benefited from this approach, while the U.S. policy of "decoupling and breaking the chain" has failed.
Therefore, the ** chain between the United States and China has not really decoupled, but has added some complex and more costly links.
These links not only did not reduce the United States' dependence on China, but increased the United States' ** deficit and inflationary pressure. And these excess costs and price differentials will ultimately have to be paid by American businesses and consumers.
Since the United States and China have not really decoupled from the ** chain, why does the United States still adhere to such a policy? Why should China tolerate such a situation? Could it be that China and the United States have suddenly reached some kind of tacit understanding?
In fact, the positions and objectives of the United States and China have not changed much. The United States still hopes to maintain its hegemonic status by putting pressure on China to force China to make concessions in terms of technology, human rights, etc.
China still insists on its sovereignty and interests, and will not give in to US threats and sanctions, but will accelerate independent innovation and domestic demand expansion to improve its own strength and resilience.
So why does there seem to be some tacit understanding between the United States and China? This may be because both sides realize that complete decoupling and disconnection of the chain would be detrimental or even disastrous to either party.
The United States knows that if it completely loses China's huge market and chain, the US economy and society will suffer huge losses and shocks.
According to a study by the American Business Roundtable, if the United States completely decouples from China, the gross domestic product of the United States will fall by 16%, 5.85 million fewer jobs in the United States, and consumers in the United States will face higher prices and fewer choices.
Moreover, the United States will lose China's cooperation and support in addressing global challenges, such as climate change, epidemic prevention and control, and terrorism.
China also knows that if it completely decouples from the United States, China's economy and society will also be affected and pressured.
According to a study by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, if the United States imposes a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods, China's exports will fall by 97%, China's GDP will fall by 11%, and 5.42 million jobs will be lost in China.
Moreover, China will also lose the resources and opportunities of the United States in scientific and technological innovation, educational exchanges, cultural exchanges, and other aspects.
Therefore, neither the United States nor China wants to see a complete decoupling and disconnection, but wants to maintain a certain degree of cooperation and exchanges while safeguarding their own interests.
That's why the U.S. and China have some room for dialogue and coordination in areas such as climate change, vaccine distribution, the Korean Peninsula, etc.
However, this tacit understanding does not mean that the contradictions and competition between China and the United States have disappeared, but that both sides are looking for a new way of balance and coexistence.
In this way, it is neither complete confrontation and hostility, nor complete cooperation and mutual trust, but a complex, dynamic and pluralistic relationship. This kind of relationship requires both parties to have enough wisdom and patience, as well as mutual respect and understanding, to be able to maintain and develop.