Author |Luo QianboProduced by |Bogotá looks at the property market
On 9 February, the thirtieth day of the Chinese New Year's Eve, Link REIT announced the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza, wholly owning the project.
On the same day, Link Real Estate**, the receiver, took the lead in announcing the disclosure of the transaction. It will end with 23The RMB8.4 billion acquisition of a 50% stake in Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza held by Vanke will result in Link becoming the sole owner of Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza, while Vanke will exit completely.
Among them, Bogotá looked at the property market and noticed that in 2021, Link REIT will be 27When 7.2 billion yuan acquired a 50% stake in Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza from GIC, the overall valuation of Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza was 65800 million yuan, and the transaction agreement price is 6.4 billion yuan.
In this transaction on February 9, the overall valuation of Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza has increased to 70600 million yuan, but the transaction agreement price is only 5.2 billion yuan, with a discount of 263%。
It is understood that Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza also has a certain milestone significance for Vanke. As Vanke's test project for commercial complexes, the existence of Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza is often regarded as the beginning of the prelude to Vanke's business. Now, the milestone project has been sold, and while it is difficult to say that Vanke will exit the commercial sector from now on, combined with previous moves such as Banyan Tree's exit, it is at least certain that Vanke is firmly moving away from non-core businesses related to "heavy assets".
Brief analysis: According to Bogo's analysis, one of the reasons why the above announcement has attracted much attention is that Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza is not only a large-scale star project in Shanghai, but also Vanke's current commercial flagship.
In the Vanke system, the operating performance of Qibao Vanke Plaza has long dominated the list, and even in 2022, which was most severely affected by the epidemic, the operating income of the project was much higher than that of Shenzhen SCP Center, which ranked second.
According to industry peers, at that time, Qibao Vanke Plaza was applauded and applauded after its opening, and according to the unofficial caliber, the sales volume of the project exceeded 2 billion in 2017 and exceeded 3 billion in 2021.
After the epidemic, the passenger flow of the project recovered rapidly, with 21.5 million passengers in 2023, an increase of 11% and 45% compared to 2021 and 2022, respectively.
As above, in the Chinese New Year's Eve, they were not idle, and Vanke and Link also wanted to officially complete the transaction as soon as possible, which shows how "anxious" Vanke is, and it seems that this can have a good year.
The aforementioned transaction is equivalent to playing 737% off, which is also equivalent to Vanke sending a big Chinese New Year red envelope to Link.
It can be seen that Vanke is eager to sell the remaining 50% interest in Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza.
Moreover, this project used to be a milestone project for Vanke to increase its commercial real estate, and it was also the most profitable project in Vanke's original business system.
What does that mean?
In this regard, many friends in the industry have analyzed and generally believe that this is a manifestation of Vanke's increasing liquidity gap, of course, this must be there, and it is not only a problem of Vanke.
However, there is a question here:
Why is Vanke in a hurry to kill this hen that can lay golden eggs in the thirtieth year of the Chinese New Year's Eve? And to get a discount to curry favor with Link?
Why is that?
Isn't it worth thinking about?
I won't talk much about other perspectives, but today, Bo Ge only observes from the perspective of Vanke Commerce's constant swinging for your reference.
According to Bogo's exclusive observation of the property market:
Throughout the development process of Vanke in the past 40 years, Vanke has always been the least disliked and optimistic about businessA typical argument is:——According to Vanke's brand and position in the industry, if Vanke wants to do commercial real estate, how can there be anything to do with Wanda and Xincheng Holdings.
Moreover, Vanke entered the commercial real estate not late, according to public information:
After the official launch of Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza, Vanke announced in 2014 that business would become a major business segment of Vanke, and it would build another 100 billion commercial Vanke. Since then, Vanke has made frequent moves in the commercial market.
In 2016, the Vanke consortium completed the acquisition of SCPG, and so far, SCPG, as a professional business management company, has assisted Vanke in the operation and management of existing projects, and Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza is also one of them.
Then, in 2018, Vanke and SCPG completed the acquisition of 20 shopping malls in CapitaLand, with a total gross floor area of approximately 950,000 square meters, further enhancing the nationwide layout of its commercial projects. In 2019, SCPG initiated the establishment of two asset-backed special programs to promote the development of commercial business.
In addition, before the Spring Festival, the group quickly adjusted its structure and launched a "commercial division", which had the potential to rearrange the commercial real estate and its assets, and soon sold the remaining shares of Shanghai Qibao Commercial Plaza to Link REIT at a discount, which shocked many friends in the industry at that time.
said that he wanted to start a business, and now he is selling the first "hen" in the system, and many friends don't understand.
Many friends talk about cash flow, is this really the case?
In the current situation, everyone has problems with capital flow, which is objective and there is nothing to say; However, judging from Vanke's past history, among the top 100 real estate companies, many commercial properties were sold when the market was good in the past, and Vanke and other peers did not have any pressure, and there was not much change until around 2018. During this period, large-scale commercial complexes need to be self-sustaining and operation and maintenance, which has caused the different models of each company.
Companies that have ideas and can persist have slowly fought their way out of large-scale commercial complexes, and have been ahead of many peers and gained many competitive advantages.
For example, one of the strongest evidences is that from the beginning of the epidemic in 2020 to the present, although the major stores have fluctuated, for the relevant stores in the core areas of the core cities, they have actually been flattened, and some of the holes in the past have basically been filled.
For example, Wanda's revenue data in the past three years is still growing, and the developers of heavy commercial real estate such as Xincheng, Longfor and China SCE are also improving, coupled with the gradual pilot before the end of last year and the support policies related to consumer REITs that will be liberalized, which have further stimulated the evolution of commercial management assets and platforms.
It is impossible for Vanke, which is full of talents, not to know these trends, and Vanke SCPG has also first enjoyed the dividends of this REITS policy, and has run ahead of Wanda and other companies, so it should be more confident, but the re-transfer of the equity of Qibao Plaza has fully exposed Vanke's "weakness".
It is reported that the other east of the Shanghai Qibao Plaza project is Singapore's GIC, a proper big man.
Many years ago, Bo Ge also contacted a lot of Singaporean institutions on some projects, and GIC had a lot of reputation, otherwise Vanke would not have cooperated with them.
In addition, there is a background that needs to be mentioned, in the Asia-Pacific region, except for Japan, Singapore is a relatively early and mature region that can issue financial businesses such as trusts and REITs, it stands to reason that 10 years ago, Vanke could have opened the door to Singapore's REITs business with the help of the resources of another major shareholder, GIC, why has Vanke been indifferent in the past 10 years?
Such a good resource, and for the shareholders and brothers who are half-opened, in such a good era, they don't have any ideas?
Why is that?
Doesn't Vanke want to make more money?
Well, I won't talk much about the other examples.
In fact, according to Vanke's previous energy and coffee position, Vanke can go abroad with its related high-quality resources, and can also win more glory and praise.
Now, why is Vanke's commercial business so miserable?
Don't think that Vanke is still in the top three, just think how good it is.
In Bogo's exclusive view of the property market, from the beginning of Wang Shi to the current Yu Liang, objectively speaking, there is a certain value, but also a lot of limitations.
They are all big names in the current situation, and their minds and visions have not been able to effectively keep pace with the times.
For example, ten years ago, Vanke was the first brother in the industry, and Wang Shi also led a team to visit a large circle of foreign countries, which should have broadened his horizons, but after returning to China, he was still engaged in ordinary real estate and selling houses.
On the whole, it is a typical mouth cannon of the first brother Wang Shi, so much so that Yu Liang has also obtained the true biography of Wang Shi - he will only shout slogans and stare at the pockets of himself and his related brothers, and get lost in the lack of historical and overall thinking.
In the process, his master went to soak in the little beauty, and under the influence of his ears and eyes, how far could Yu Liang go?
From 2018 to the present, Yu Liang has shouted the slogan of "live" for several years, and in the past 6 years, Yu Liang has not brought Vanke to a new height, but has become an ordinary keeper.
From the perspective of human nature, Yu Liang can get Wang Shi's appreciation and support from the competition of many people, and it is not so simple, everything has cause and effect.
Wang Shi must have been inspecting Yu Liang for many years before he would arrange it like this.
However, although there have been rapid changes in different times under the rule of Yu Liang, it also fully reflects that Vanke from the starting point to the present, in its core strategic system, diversified industrial layout and commercial real estate, are like a "chicken ribs" business, although there has been in-depth strategic thinking and design, but too dependent on and adhere to the development of residential business, lack of vision and determination in the strategy of commercial business, is also a major reason for the current predicament.
The core strategy of selling residential properties as the core business has not changed for decades.
Although, last year, Vanke took great pains to set up a so-called "commercial division", and soon after Banyan Tree and spun off all of Shanghai's Qibao Plaza, it can at least show two points-One isIn its core real estate development system, Vanke's commercial real estate and its related assets are ranked behind residential and other areas, and have not really entered its core axis. The second isIt is still following the inherent path of the past residential popularity, and wants to quickly realize every cent of investment into high-quality assets that can be held in the short term, and the thinking and honing in business are superficial, which is the main reason why Vanke's commercial sector has not been able to do well and wavered for more than 10 years.
The statement of the commercial division before the Spring Festival, why should it carry out self-talk integration, and never mention 100 billion business again.
In addition, starting from Shanghai Qibao Plaza in 2014 to 2021, even after the acquisition of SCPG, there is still no improvement, Vanke's business is still in an uproar, why is this?
Isn't it that you want to be lazy and use others to get this field done?
It is worth mentioning that the starting time of its business is similar to that of Wanda, and later, the business strategy between Vanke and Wanda is getting bigger and bigger. The residential and commercial segments are already separated from each other.
In the end, it is better to rely on the logistics, property and apartment sectors to tell some stories, and other aspects are embarrassed to show their hands.
To sum up, after Bogo's exclusive observation of the property market, the changes during the period can be preliminarily summarized into three sentences:
First, it is more residential than commercial + fast money and not long-term, so its business cannot be done.
Second, from Wang Shi to Yu Liang, there is a strong lineage of operating genes.
Third, since Yu Liang, the second generation of managers has changed from wolves to little sheep, and has lost the enterprising spirit of independent thinking.
Where there is a cause, there must be an effect, and vice versa.
Overall, the skewers are like lamb skewers, and the skewers that can be held in the middle are consistent and have not changed much.
It has long become the core soul of Vanke's industrial layout, influencing different people behind it.
In particular, it is the great changes in the international environment and industrial trends in recent years, Yu Liang and others are increasingly difficult to live a good life, and keeping the foundation of their master has been the first priority of their team.
Since the beginning of the year, Vanke has undergone a series of numerous changes, all of which are realistic manifestations of its core strategic genes and the pressure of the times.
In view of this, it can also be inferred that Vanke has not had the deepest insight and firm belief in business, and it is basically a manifestation of painless formalism in the whim.
Wang Shi and Yu Liang, the two eras are similar.
The current adjustment is also a way out of the question, and it is not a rethinking under Vanke's core strategy.
For Yu Liang, who is in his 50s, keeping his foundation is success, and he can save some face, otherwise, it will cause a systematic collapse.
Write at the end:
According to Bogo's observation of the property market, for decades, Vanke has not had too many deep and firm ideas in terms of business operation, and only wants to easily realize its own value with the help of external forces.
It has not established its own core operation team that can overcome difficulties.
Strategy, system, talent and resources, etc., it is still difficult to form an effective three-dimensional and relatively perfect closed loop, which has caused many troubles in Vanke's current business operation.
From 2014 to 2024, in the past 10 years, under the blessing of many advantages, it has not been sharpened into a sharp commercial sword; The future is not **, in the midst of the turmoil, it is too late to make amends.
It's even more difficult.
At the same time, the establishment of the above-mentioned "commercial division" is too short, and for the main team that is accustomed to residential projects, the change of its thinking is not a short-term professional combat effectiveness, and SCPG has its own unique demands, although it is integrated, it takes time to run in between relevant teams.
Inside and outside the system, there will be many variables in Vanke's commercial sector.
The body, mind, body, and soul will be difficult to effectively coordinate, and the "tearing" between them will be inevitable.
Wanda, China Resources, Xincheng and Longfor, etc., have gradually built their own core systems after more than ten years of precipitation and accumulation, and Vanke Commercial still has a long way to go if it wants to tell its own business story.
Moreover, in its bones, it lacks many business genes, and its responsibility is heavier and more distant.
For Vanke, which lacks professional business thinking and genes, in the current wind and snow that may last for a certain period of time, and many other related pressures, the operation of its business sector still needs to go through more soul and other kinds of torture.
With the residential thinking in the bones and the behavior of not daring to gnaw on the hard bones of business, Vanke Business still needs to do homework in order to form an effective industry.
The road is long, I don't know if Vanke can go up and down?
Let's wait and see.
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