Publish a collection of dragon cards to share millions of cash
Boy! 2024 will blow up at the beginning of the year.
Important policies of major departments have been intensively introduced!
First of all, the State Administration of Financial Supervision said:
The financial sector has an unshirkable responsibility to support real estate.
Then the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced:
Fully give the autonomy of urban real estate regulation and control.
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen immediately introduced different degrees of purchase restriction relaxation policies.
There is also the "Urban Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism" jointly implemented by these two departments.
The financial co-ordination power to bail out the market has finally been delegated to the local government.
Now, the local government and the top management will be able to personally supervise the banks to lend money to the developers!
At present, there are more than 10,000 real estate projects docked by the six major state-owned banks alone.
There are 314 projects in Chongqing, 299 in Zhengzhou, 212 in Kunming, 227 in Chengdu and 101 in Wuhan.
Yang Ma is also very busy.
It's another RRR cut, and another interest rate cut.
On February 5, the "double RRR cut" was officially reduced by 05 percentage points!
How to say? Since 2022, the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) a total of five times.
There are 4 times when it is down 025 percentage points, only this time it was 05 percentage points! It is twice the strength of the previous RRR cut!
What is RRR Cut?
It is to reduce the reserve requirement ratio and release more liquidity.
Don't underestimate this 0A 5 percentage point reduction would release about $1 trillion in long-term funding in the market.
There is also the interest rate cut just officially announced, and the LPR has plummeted by 25 basis points all of a sudden, which is even stronger!
You know, it only fell by 10 basis points for the whole of last year.
In order to stimulate everyone to buy a house, it is really moving!
Yang Ma's series of actions far exceeded expectations!
In addition, in order to stabilize the country, the national team has also significantly strengthened its efforts to protect the plate, investing more than one trillion yuan.
Later, there was big news about the change of leadership of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
It has brought a fresh policy spring breeze to the market.
All over the country are also full of energy, and they will roll up their sleeves and start working on the first working day after the year!
Guangdong held a provincial high-quality conference to sound the clarion call for economic recovery;
Chongqing has promoted the construction of a twin-city economic circle in the Chengdu-Chongqing region
Shanghai has sounded the clarion call to optimize the business environment for seven consecutive years
Shandong deepens high-level opening-up and expands high-quality investment attraction
Anhui further creates a social atmosphere for the development and expansion of the private economy
All departments work together, and this wave of all-round one-time actions is bound to reverse the general trend!
In the year of Armageddon 2024, the heavy punch is really coming!
In fact, this year has already made a good start.
Many of the main financial data for January exceeded expectations.
The most surprising M1 growth rate has jumped sharply!
At the end of January, M1 increased by 59%, a new high in nearly 11 months.
Now, M1 is following M2 closely.
M2 stands for Total Amount of Funds and refers to all the money circulating in the market.
M1 is primarily a demand deposit, which is money that is ready to be spent at any time.
The closer the growth rate of M1 is to M2, the more active the market is and the more active money there is.
What's the situation?Do you really dare to spend money?
This doesn't seem to match reality.
Don't worry, there's another highlight.
Resident loans increased from more than 200 billion yuan to more than 900 billion yuan year-on-year.
The increase is quite large!
It even smoothed out the contraction of corporate loans, making the social finance data for the whole January a good start!
Of the more than 700 billion yuan of new resident loans, more than 300 billion yuan were short-term loans and more than 400 billion yuan were medium- and long-term loans.
We know that medium and long-term loans of more than 5 years are closely related to the property market
It doesn't seem to be.
The data shows that compared with the past few years, the sales area of commercial housing in major cities across the country is still low and not ideal.
In January, the index of second-hand housing in first-tier cities was 4 year-on-year9%, which is the largest decline in the month outside of 2008-2009!
So what is the reason why these two important data are so much higher than expected?
In this, the Spring Festival factor accounts for part of the proportion.
Approaching the New Year, the unit will issue a year-end bonus, the individual will buy New Year's goods, the demand for capital turnover is large, and even the loan will be increased to turn over.
Demand deposits will increase, and loans to residents will also increase.
It seems that it has to be the New Year to empty the wallets of Chinese!
What else?It is also related to a series of economic policies at the beginning of the year.
A large amount of live money enters the property market through various channels and **.
In any case, at least the economic dynamism of the beginning of the year is on the rise.
If there are more practical actions in the follow-up, then this year may be clearer.
For example, M1 is generally the leading indicator of the PPI (Producer Price Index), which is about 9 months ahead of the PPI.
If M1 continues to grow steadily, it is possible that business conditions will improve.
The key depends on whether it can be sustained in the future!
Now we are doing everything possible to save the property market.
First, it is for real estate to drive the economy, after all, real estate still accounts for the majority of GDP.
Second, I want real estate to continue to be a reservoir.
to undertake the release of the sky, after all, money always has to have a way out.
Now the M2 balance is 29227 trillion yuan.
Next, with the double RRR cut of the central mother and the speed of the real estate whitelist is also accelerating, it is expected that the M2 growth rate in February will also accelerate.
A balance of more than 300 trillion is a certainty.
In addition, there is a very important point that the property market is also related to the **.
* Mainly depends on expectations, expectations for the recovery of the property market, expectations for the development of enterprises, and expectations for economic trends.
The upstream and downstream industries related to real estate are very large, which is very important for stabilizing growth and employment.
So real estate must be saved!
However, there is another important question here:
The demand side can't keep up!
On the one hand, buying up does not buy down, afraid that it will continue to fall;
On the other hand, there is really no money in hand.
How can this be solved?
Don't worry, there will be more policies to solve the demand side in the future!
Just wait.
No, LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years has taken the lead in lowering the price more than expected.
For new mortgages, the 5-year LPR is now 395%, which is basically equal to the provident fund interest rate in previous years.
For the stock of housing loans, a 1 million housing loan can be repaid less than 5 in 30 years20 thousand.
All families with a mortgage can enjoy this wave of benefits!
But the question arises again, will the bank continue to obediently lower the mortgage interest rate?
The latest data shows that by the end of 2023, the net interest margin of commercial banks has fallen to 169%, falling below 1 for the first time7% mark.
A decline in net interest margin means a decline in commercial bank profit margins.
Last month, the net profit of the banking industry in Guangdong, the largest province in the economy, fell by 11%!
Not to mention other provincial banks with weaker economies?
What to do, the bank is also a headache, but it has to go down!
In order to avoid the continuous narrowing of the net interest margin of commercial banks, we can only continue to reduce the deposit interest rate!
The latest news, a few days ago, another wave of banks cut deposit rates.
For the first time in history, national banks are almost unable to find more than 2% of their fixed deposits.
Deposit rates are falling, and the yield of money**, which is centered on bank deposits, will also be affected.
You should be able to feel that the annualized interest rate of Yu'e Bao can exceed 4% in previous years.
Now, it's less than 2 percent.
And even then it's a downtrend!
After all, banks still have room to cut lending rates.
In short, the future will usher us in a cycle of low interest rates and large water releases.
Regarding LPR, we hope to continue to decline.
Because it's also good for small and medium-sized businesses.
LPR is generally the interest rate on loans to the best quality customers, with the strongest repayment ability, usually local **, state-owned enterprises, and large companies.
The interest rate of other people's or businesses' loans is often added to it.
If the loan interest rate obtained by the enterprise is LPR+N points, then the lower the LPR, the more the company's yield can exceed the cost of capital.
Now small and medium-sized enterprises are not having a good time.
The latest data on the SME Development Index released in January is 892. It is lower than the level of the same period in 2021 and 2022, and is below the critical value of 100.
I hope that LPR can further decline and help more enterprises and individuals resist risks and survive the cold winter!
Everyone is eagerly looking forward to saying goodbye to the past winter and ushering in the new spring!
Hopefully tomorrow will be better and, of course, be prepared for the worst.
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