"Cutting off offspring" was a vicious word in the old society, and it was the harshest punishment an emperor could impose on a family. When there is a conflict between neighbors, both sides curse each other for "cutting off offspring".
It can be said that "cutting off children and grandchildren" is something that every family does not want to see. But in today's society, "cutting off offspring" is becoming a social reality. Even if the state acts, it will be difficult to change the status quo. What can be done to break this situation?
01.Has "extermination" become a reality?
In 2022, China's birth population will fall below 10 million for the first time in 60 years, only 9.56 million, a decrease of 1.99 million from the previous year, and the natural population growth rate will be -06‰。Due to the low birth rate, the death toll was 10.41 million. Last year, our population fell by 850,000. China has officially entered a period of negative population growth.
This is the harsh reality. Our country seems to have embarked on the path of "cutting off children and grandchildren". This will be followed by many social problems such as an aging population, a declining birthrate, and a weakened labor force.
In fact, our country has long been the richest country in the world. The birth rate was as high as 23 in 198733, but in 2020 it has fallen below 10% and has now dropped to 677‰。
It is generally accepted internationally that in order for a country to develop rapidly, it must have a stable population, and its replacement fertility rate must exceed 21, i.e. every woman must give birth to 21 child.
Although, according to the United Nations, the global alternative fertility rate in 2020 was 24, but 91 countries or territories are below 21, and most of them are developed countries. For example, Singapore has a minimum of 08, 0 in South Korea9, 1 in Japan0。
As for why many countries in the world have such a tacit understanding of the emergence of the "demographic crisis", in the final analysis, the development of modern society has greatly increased the pressure on young people. Many couples are only willing to have one child. They believe that having too many children will limit the freedom of life and will also affect future career plans.
The reason for the "demographic crisis" in our country has a lot to do with the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age. For example, by 2021, there will be 5 million fewer women of childbearing age between the ages of 15 and 49 in our country, and 3 million fewer women between the ages of 21 and 35 in particular. A decrease in the number of women of childbearing age naturally leads to a decline in fertility.
As the number of newborns decreases, the number of women of childbearing age will continue to decline in the future, and it is not alarmist to say that "children and grandchildren will die" as a reality.
02.The intervention of the state did not change the status quo.
As early as 2016, China announced the official liberalization of the two-child policy. The news did not resonate with the public. On the contrary, the number of births declined year after year in the following years.
For example, the number of births in 2016 was 1,883230,000, but in 2019 it dropped to 14.65 million. Seeing that the birth rate continues to decline, the state has announced the liberalization of the three-child plan, but in fact, this policy has not changed the birth situation.
In 2020, the population dropped to 1202110,000, fell to 10.62 million the following year, and fell below 10 million last year.
Obviously, although the state has twice announced the liberalization of family planning, the extension of maternity leave, and the increase of maternity allowances, it still has not stimulated the enthusiasm of young people for childbearing.
The continuous decline in the birth rate has had a huge impact on China's economic development. The decline in the birth rate will inevitably lead to the loss of the demographic dividend, the lack of strong impetus for economic development, the decrease in consumer demand, the intensification of aging, and the increase in the burden of social pension. In the long run, it is not conducive to the development of the country. 。
In order to stimulate people to have children, local governments have also taken measures, and many places have introduced additional welfare policies and incentives.
For example, a family with three children in Shenyang City can provide a childcare subsidy of 500 yuan per month until the child is 3 years old. Jiuquan City will give a one-time reward of 50,000 yuan to the second child and a one-time reward of 100,000 yuan to the third child.
Changsha City will give a one-time subsidy of 10,000 yuan to families with 3 children; Hangzhou City will give a reward of 5,000 yuan to families with a second child and 20,000 yuan to families with a third child. In Jinan, if there is a second or third child, you can get a monthly subsidy of 600 yuan until the child is three years old.
These maternity benefits are obviously more substantial benefits than extended maternity leave, but even if all localities try their best, they still cannot arouse the enthusiasm of couples to have children.
03.Why are young people reluctant to have children?
Some people wonder, what's going on? Why are young people reluctant to have children? Is it really necessary to "cut off offspring"?
In fact, the "demographic crisis" is affected by a variety of factors, the most important of which are the following.
1. Changes in the concept of marriage.
In traditional Chinese society, the concept of "raising children to prevent old age" is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. In order to age gracefully, many people will have more children to ensure that they accompany them through their old age.
In the past, people also valued the continuation of the bloodline and the inheritance of the family bloodline, and did not want the future of the family to be cut off in their own generation.
But now, with the continuous development of the economy and society and the improvement of living standards, people's concept of marriage and family has undergone obvious changes. Young people no longer pursue the concept of family, but only think of a freer life in this life. They do not value marriage and childbearing. Under the influence of negative perceptions, marriage or childbearing is no longer regarded as an important event in life, and the number of people who marry later and have children later has increased significantly.
2.Changes in women's values.
With the continuous improvement of education levels, women are no longer as dependent on men as traditional women. Instead, they go out into the workplace and make positive contributions in various fields.
With sufficient economic strength, women can face the future society more calmly and live freely on their own. Many people may choose to postpone marriage or childbearing for the sake of life planning and career development.
There are also some women who don't want to be used as a reproductive tool by men, don't want to be locked up by children in the future, and prefer freedom, so they have a wait-and-see attitude towards marriage or marriage. Parturition.
Because of this, more people marry later and have children later at this stage. According to 2021 data, the average age of marriage for men is 317 years old, 30 years old for women, much higher than the same period in history.
Another data shows that in 2017, the number of family plans for women of childbearing age was 176, but in 2021 this survey data dropped to 164 pcs.
It can be seen that young people prefer personal freedom and personal happiness to be bound by marriage and childbearing.
3. Excessive financial pressure.
In 2013, the marriage rate in China was 99, but last year it has dropped to 48‰。The main reason for the continuous decline in the marriage rate is that the economic pressure is too great and men do not have enough money to get married.
The continuous development of the economy and society has also improved the level of women's marriage. They demand more from men. They want men to have a house and a car and be able to pay the bride price.
But for college graduates, they are already old when they graduate, and they have reached marriageable age. But the pressure on employment right now is too great. For example, the number of undergraduate graduates will exceed 10 million in 2022, but the employment rate will only be 236%。Such a low employment rate speaks volumes about how much pressure young people are under.
Many people can't find a job that suits their major, so they have to settle for a job with a basic salary of three or four thousand yuan. But these incomes can only support themselves, how to buy a house and a car?
In order to be able to buy a house, buy a car, and receive a bride price, many men can only "marry late" or not get married. In this way, the marriage rate will fall, and the birth rate will naturally fall.
4. The cost of childbirth and education is high.
Many young people complain that they can't afford to raise children right now. According to the survey, the current cost of raising a child to adulthood is $4850,000 yuan, and the cost of raising a child until college graduation is 6270,000 yuan.
But Chinese parents won't let it go. Wait until the children get married and have children to complete the task, and the bride price is also a huge expense. These overdraft the parents' financial and physical and mental health, and they dare not have children anymore.
Some people wonder why they spend so much money to raise their children. In fact, parents attach great importance to their children's education. They all have a dream of "hoping that their children will get ahead" and hope that their children can continue their education. As a result, the cost of investing in a child's education is relatively high.
Nowadays, in order to let their children go to a good school, many parents can only buy school district houses. Then, parents will have to bear the tuition, miscellaneous fees, class fees, training fees, and postponement fees for their children's 20-year educational career. All of this adds to the pressure on parents to discourage them from having more children.
In addition, the burden of medical care and pension also makes many young people afraid to have children because they are worried about not being able to pay for medical care and pension.
04.Some suggestions.
The current stress of life has increased dramatically. Car loans, housing loans and other expenses make young people face great pressure to get married. Medical care, education, and pension have also brought too much pressure to couples. They don't dare to marry easily, and they don't dare to have more children. 。
The author believes that the most important thing for people to actively cope with childbirth is to improve housing, medical care, education, pension, etc., so as to truly reduce the pressure and burden on young people and enable people to have children more actively.
Therefore, the burden on young people can be reduced through policy measures such as lowering prices, increasing incomes, providing adequate welfare policies, increasing childcare and welfare institutions, implementing flexible work systems and parental leave, and strengthening the social security system. And provide better medical services, in addition, we should also solve the problem of aging, increase the social pension mechanism, provide a more secure life for the elderly, and reduce the pressure of raising children.
Of course, we should also carry out more publicity and education, popularize the concept of childbirth, strengthen the sense of family responsibility, let young people understand the importance of family and blood traditions, and call on young people to establish a correct family view.