**:Sina**.
The Spring Festival holiday is coming, this year's consumption recovery has been said, standing at the end of the Year of the Rabbit, we can see its image more intuitively: the eating, drinking and entertainment sector ushered in the whole line of catalysis, ice and snow tourism exploded, becoming a big consumption ** pioneer, and then the Chinese New Year's Eve dinner is hotly scheduled, the Spring Festival stalls are highly anticipated, and the heavy new tour is online, etc., all indicate the strong momentum of consumption recovery. Let's take a closer look at the investment opportunities behind eating, drinking, playing, and having fun!
1. Eating and drinking: Pre-made dishes are served on the Chinese New Year's Eve table, and the peak season for liquor sales during the Spring Festival is coming.
The Spring Festival must be inseparable from eating and drinking, especially the Chinese New Year's Eve dinner on Chinese New Year's Eve, which is the most anticipated thing for young migrant workers who are adrift at the end of the year. In fact, there are ways to eat Chinese New Year's Eve dinner in various places, a survey of fresh food platforms shows that 33% of respondents will choose to make their own + with pre-made dishes to assist in the production of Chinese New Year's Eve meals, and 21% of respondents choose direct pre-made dishes **. In other words, more than half of the consumers surveyed use pre-made dishes when cooking Chinese New Year's Eve dinner.
In recent years, prefabricated dishes have developed rapidly, and consumers have gradually shifted from passive acceptance to active choice of prefabricated dishes from unfamiliar to familiar, thanks to the catalysis of the epidemic, policy promotion, and the fact that prefabricated dishes themselves represent the development trend of modern society.
The essence of pre-made dishes is the industrial production of dishes with different degrees of cooking. Prepared dishes in the narrow sense include prepared meat products, cooking packages, semi-finished products and finished dishes, and prefabricated dishes in the broad sense also include traditional quick-frozen rice noodles and quick-frozen hot pot ingredients. Why does the prefabricated food itself represent the development trend of modern society - to solve the pain points of the B C end, the B end of the catering side to reduce costs and increase efficiency by reducing the personnel demand of the kitchen area, improving the speed of meals, standardized operation, etc., and the C end to solve the pain points of long cooking time and high requirements for dishes, so the long-term development potential is great.
The penetration rate of China's prefabricated food industry is only 10%-15%, compared with more than 60% in the United States and Japan, there is still huge room for growth, and it is in the blue ocean stage. According to iiMedia Consulting data, the size of China's prefabricated food market in 2022 will be 419.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2131%, it is expected that China's prefabricated food market will maintain a high growth rate in the future, and the market size of prefabricated food will reach 1,072 billion in 2026.
At present, the competition pattern of the prefabricated food industry is scattered, and there will be industry leaders in the process of improving industry concentration. According to the data of the China Cuisine Association, the current prefabricated food industry is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, and the concentration is very low, CR10 is about 14%. The prefabricated food industry is expected to gradually grow in scale, the country will introduce corresponding industry standards, small enterprises will be cleared, industry concentration will be improved, and leading enterprises will be able to obtain a higher growth rate. Referring to the development process of quick-frozen rice noodles and hot pot ingredients in the form of prefabricated dishes in the early days, the industry is expected to improve profitability and nurture large companies after a long period of full competition and integration.
In the constituent stocks of the Food & Beverage ETF (515170) and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230), there are many companies involved in the prefabricated food business, such as Guangzhou Restaurant$Guangzhou Restaurant (SH603043)$, Sanquan Foods, Yum China, etc. (not recommended as **).
When it comes to Chinese New Year's Eve dinner, in addition to eating, there must be another theme during the banquet, that is, relatives and friends get together for a drink. In the traditional concept of the Spring Festival, "wine" is indispensable for the New Year, just as "New Year" is indispensable for the Chinese people, and these two main lines are intertwined to become the "New Year's wine culture" with Chinese characteristics.
From the beginning of the year to the Lantern Festival, for nearly a month, each has its own **. For example, on the twenty-third day of the lunar month, there is a saying that "this wine welcomes the new year", and there is a folk proverb that says: twenty-four, sweep the house. It means that after worshipping the god of the stove, people will officially prepare for the New Year and carry out a "big cleaning", which means that the meaning of the ancients is to sweep all the "poor luck" and "bad luck" out of the door in it. After the cleaning, people will also drink a few bottles of good wine on this day to celebrate, because "farewell to the old and welcome the new" has a homonym for "this wine welcomes the new", so on this day "drink good wine" also has a beautiful meaning of welcoming the new; And Chinese New Year's Eve to drink "year-old wine", Chinese New Year's Eve is the dividing line between the old and new years, on this day people will drink "year-old wine", on the arrival of the new year to make good expectations; When it comes to the Lantern Festival, Guangdong has the custom of "drinking lantern wine", such as Shunde in Foshan and the suburbs of Guangzhou, "drinking lantern wine" has been popular among the people for three or four hundred years, and is held during the eighth day of the first lunar month to the Lantern Festival every year.
The Spring Festival has always been the peak season for liquor sales. In the past year, liquor has been plagued by high inventories, is this year's Spring Festival a catalyst for liquor destocking? Will the liquor industry enter a shift period?
There is room for expectation difference in the context of low valuation, low expectation and steady growth of liquor. The performance of the food and beverage sector is closely related to macroeconomic conditions, and the sector continues to adjust due to market concerns about the medium and long-term macroeconomy and the collection of liquor during the Spring Festival. The market expects low expectations for the Spring Festival payment and dynamic sales of liquor, the actual sales of liquor are stable, the progress of high-end Mao Wulu is more than half, and the regional famous liquor is basically in line with the company's planning. At present, the valuation of the sector fully reflects the pessimism, and the valuation of the industry has been at a low level in the past 153 years, and the medium and long-term investment is cost-effective.
The fundamentals of the liquor sector are relatively resilient. Since 2023, the dynamic sales and channel confidence of the liquor industry have had twists and turns with the switch of off-peak seasons, but they have still achieved steady performance growth. From the perspective of inventory and price order, the current channel inventory is maintained at a controllable level of 2-3 months. For leading wine companies, their business toolbox is sufficient to ensure that the performance is completed with greater certainty. At present, the market does not expect high performance for the Spring Festival, and there may be room for expectation difference in the future.
The liquor sector is a scarce industry with a good business model and high competitive barriers, with strong certainty in long-term growth logic, and attaches importance to allocation opportunities with low valuations. With the macroeconomic slowdown, industrial structure changes and demographic structure adjustment, the future economic center decline will affect the liquor industry to a certain extent, and the growth logic of the liquor industry will be affected to a certain extent, especially the impact on quantity. However, combined with the current situation of the industry's increase in tonnage price and decrease in consumption since 2016, the logic of "drinking less and drinking better" still exists in the future, so high-end liquor will be less affected by the above impact. In addition, each round of liquor cycle is accompanied by an increase in concentration and price upgrades, and the market share will continue to concentrate on famous and high-quality liquor companies. The liquor industry has experienced several rounds of impact such as the 08 financial crisis, the eight regulations in 12 years, and the domestic deleveraging superposition in 18 years, and the market concentration has continued to increase, and the share has continued to concentrate on the head liquor companies, and since 2005, CR5 Maowu Luyangfen has expanded from less than 20% to 42%.
Focusing on the investment side, what about the investment opportunities related to food and beverage?
The most important in the consumer sector is food and beverage, and the most important thing in food and beverage is the liquor sector. As of 2024 1 19, the valuation of Moutai $Kweichow Moutai (SH600519) $ liquor sector is respectively. 0 times, since 2018. At the 2% quantile level, the downside is relatively limited.
From the perspective of performance, it is expected that the macro economy will maintain a moderate recovery in 24 years, and the sufficient business toolbox of the leading wine companies will ensure that the performance is completed with strong certainty.
1) ** The Economic Work Conference emphasized that "focusing on economic construction as the central work and high-quality development as the primary task", and the economy will continue to be stable and positive next year and achieve a moderate recovery under the grasp of steady growth such as trillions of national bonds and three major projects. (*Economy**).
2) In recent years, leading wine companies have continuously strengthened their operation and management capabilities and improved the resilience of reporting risks, such as exploring new retail channels such as e-commerce and specialty stores to enhance their value creation capabilities, digitally empowering channel control to strengthen the fineness of inventory and price order management, and enriching product structure to develop incremental revenue. This year, the goals of each wine company have been completed to a high degree, and the planning of the head wine company next year is expected to continue to be positive. In the context of moderate economic recovery and sufficient operating cards of liquor companies, the performance of the liquor sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the coming year.
3) In 23 years, under the weak recovery in China, the liquor industry still achieved a steady growth of about 20%.
The overall recovery of mass food is slower than expected, and the performance of scene-related sectors such as beverages, beer and B-end quick-frozen food with a high proportion of travel and catering is relatively good, and it is expected to continue this tone in 24 years, with a moderate recovery in demand, the continuation of cost dividends, and the advantage of some segments.
Food & Beverage ETF(515170) OTC Link: 013125 013126;Tracking the CSI subdivision food and beverage industry theme index is a better asset allocation tool for the consumer sector. In terms of industry, according to the CITIC ** industry classification, the largest industry in the subdivision of the food index is liquor, with an industry weight of 644%, dairy products, flavored fermented products are the first weight.
The second and third largest industries, the total weight of the top three industries is nearly 85%, and the index industry distribution has both the robustness of high-end liquor, the high elasticity of second-tier liquor companies and the rigidity of demand for mass products. The top three constituent stocks of the subdivided food index account for more than 40%, and the top 10 constituent stocks account for about 75%, with a high concentration of leaders. Heavy stocks include "Mao Wulu" high-end liquor, $Yili shares (SH600887)$ in popular products, Haitian Flavor Industry, etc. The competition pattern of the food and beverage industry is clear, and the leading enterprises have brand, scale and channel advantages, strong profitability and stable long-term performance.
Food & Beverage ETF Tracking Index Industry Distribution.
Data**: wind, as of December 31, 2023
2. Play and fun: "Win hemp" before the Ice and Snow Tourism Festival! The entertainment game track or the Spring Festival is a good catalyst.
Many new films worth looking forward to during the Spring Festival are also closely scheduled, and many blockbuster new games have also decided to be gradually launched during the Spring Festival.
In the past year, the Chinese film market has won 5491.5 billion yuan box office, 12The success of 9.9 billion moviegoers achieved a strong recovery. Among them, the Spring Festival and summer holidays are very critical to the film market, and the box office of the two major schedules has accounted for half of the whole year for two consecutive years.
A number of blockbuster movies are scheduled for the Spring Festival, the longest Spring Festival file in history, and the box office imagination space is huge. As of January 29, 9 films have been officially announced for the 2024 Spring Festival, including "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2", "Article 20", "Mr. Red Carpet", "Let's Shake the Sun Together", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", "Eight Rings: The Nether of the Canopy", "Breaking the War", "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat", etc.
From the perspective of box office expectations, according to the box office of the Spring Festival movies integrated by Maoyan, the top three are expected to be "Hot and Hot", "Article 20" and "Flying Life 2", of which the box office of "Hot and Hot" is between 2.2-3.5 billion, "Article 20" is between 1.9-2.1 billion, and "Flying Life 2" is between 1.5-2 billion. (1) A comedy directed by Jia Ling, starring Jia Ling and Lei Jiayin. Previously, the news that Jia Ling was **100 pounds for the movie, which aroused heated discussions among netizens. For the promotion of the film, Jia Ling has not appeared so far, which has whetted the audience's appetite. (2) "Article 20" is directed by Zhang Yimou, focusing on the hotly discussed law of legitimate defense, and is based on the surrounding matters that everyone is concerned about. Last year, he directed the suspense comedy "Man Jianghong" and received a lot of praise, and now "Article 20" is also highly anticipated by the audience. (3) On February 5, 2019, "Flying Life" was released in Chinese mainland, and the box office exceeded 1 billion in six days of release. Now that the second part of the film is back with the original cast and surprise characters, many viewers are looking forward to it.
If the best effect can be achieved, then compared with the data of previous years, the Spring Festival stalls in 2024 are expected to achieve better results than in 2023. Specific to the investment side: popular movies are the key factor to promote the growth of China's total film box office, and the supply of high-quality content is the guarantee for increasing the film and television consumption of user groups. Looking forward to 2024, blockbuster reserves such as "No Thing That Can't Be Solved by a Hot Pot", "Temporary Robbery", "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space", "Mr. Red Carpet", "Genius Game", "Nezha's Demon Boy in the Sea" and "Wild Times" are expected to contribute to the increase.
At the same time, the film and television industry is also expected to usher in the dual catalysis of technological and content form changes. On the one hand, the application of AI technology and generative AI are expected to promote the progress of the film and television industry chain, such as film and television script creation & evaluation, special effects production & editing, and innovative film and television content literacy. On the other hand, the micro-short drama track is expected to become a new growth curve for companies in the film and television industry, and under the trend of high-quality industry, film and television companies have film and television, animation IP, film and television production capabilities and industrial chain integration resources, and are expected to successfully enter the new incremental track.
Friends who pay attention to entertainment media investment opportunities can pay attention to entertainment media ETF (516190) is the only on-exchange ETF that tracks the CSI Entertainment Media Index, with 50 constituent stocks in the index, involving **, live broadcast, games, movies, IPTV OTT, digital publishing, digital marketing, **education, events and performances and other related businesses to reflect the overall performance of culture, entertainment and media theme sectors. The top 10 weighted stocks in the index include Focus Media, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Mango Supermedia, Kunlun Wanwei and other heavyweight stocks.
There are also game manufacturers who are also keeping an eye on the Spring Festival, and data over the years show that the Spring Festival period is often the peak period for activity and revenue in the game industry.
As the Chinese New Year of the Dragon approaches, the number of mobile game products released continues to increase. According to Gamelook's preliminary statistics, a total of 34 mobile games are expected to be launched in January 2024, a further increase from the number of 31 in the previous month and a new high in recent times. The game products launched this month are generally relatively novel in terms of themes, such as "Baijing Corridor", which boldly combines ancient style and futuristic style, "Bang Bang Army" with trendy style and stepping on BGM, and "Party of the Gods" in the popular cool mythological style.
In 2023, the game market will recover significantly, the healthy development of the industry will be released frequently, the fundamentals of the game industry will continue to improve, and the trend of prosperity improvement will be clear. In 2023, the domestic game and mobile game markets will both hit record highs, with year-on-year sales revenue growth respectively. 51%。Since November 2022, the rhythm of more than 85 domestic game versions per month has been basically maintained.
The popularity of the phenomenal game "Phantom Beast Palu" continues to rise. The game was launched on Steam on January 19 and sold more than 6 million in four days. The ultimate fusion gameplay (cute pet + open world + battle + survival) meets the needs of players with different preferences. The industry trend of "heavy gameplay, light production" in the game industry, especially on the basis of AI cost reduction and efficiency increase, the competition of gameplay has once again become the core point of product success, and the industry still has room for innovation, and is optimistic about the development of the industry in the long run.
In 2023, the game sector will go through a big opening and closing, and the recovery of fundamentals and the drive of AI technology will still be the core driving force for the future development of the industry. At the beginning of 2023, due to the marginal improvement of policies, the expected recovery of supply and the drive of AI technology, the triple catalysis made the PE (TTM) of the plate directly rise from 20X to a maximum of 44X, and the valuation level doubled within half a year. This valuation level has essentially eliminated all the valuation premiums that come with AI and product expectations.
In 2023, there will be many innovations on the supply side, including the explosion of interactive game content, the rapid growth of the mini program game track, the changes brought by the upcoming VisionPro to XR content display are also worth looking forward to, and AI technology also brings more possibilities for gameplay innovation. Entering 2024, the cadence of first edition approval is expected to remain stable, and the demand of players will continue to be stimulated as the supply of ideas continues.
Gaming ETFs (159869, OTC Connect: 012768 012769). Tracking the CSI Animation & Game Index, it mainly invests in listed companies whose main business involves animation, comics, games and other related sub-entertainment industries, with the top 10 constituent shares weighing 6732%, including Kunlun Wanwei, Century Huatong, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Kaiying Network, Shenzhou Taiyue and other A-share leading game companies, focusing on game leaders, high flexibility and high growth.
According to the industry classification of Shenwan**, the largest industry in the animation and game index is games, with a total of 32 constituent stocks and a total market capitalization of 3,8537.2 billion yuan. Whether it is the weighting ratio, the number of constituent stocks, or the market capitalization, the gaming industry deserves to be the largest industry in the index, which also highlights the characteristics of the index. The CSI Animation & Game Index has been performing since late December, and from a valuation point of view, the static price-to-earnings ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) of the Animation & Game Index is 2379x (data as of January 24, 2024), which is at a relatively modest level in the past three years, but well below the highest valuation level in history.
In addition to playing games and watching movies, many friends will also choose to travel. Let's take a look at some data:
During the New Year's Day holiday in 2024, the number of domestic tourism trips across the country will reach 13.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1553%, achieving domestic tourism revenue of 797300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2007%。The travel crowd is younger, and the "post-00s", "post-90s" and "post-80s" account for more than eighty percent of the total number of travelers. Ice and snow tourism, Hainan tourism, and overseas travel continue to be hot, and local cultural and tourism departments have increased publicity efforts to attract the attention of tourists from all over the country, the number of tourists has continued to recover, and the fundamentals of the industry have continued to improve.
Indeed, this year's tourism enthusiasm has recovered significantly compared with the epidemic in the past few years last year: during the three-day New Year's Day holiday in 2024, the national cultural and tourism market will be stable and orderly, and the passenger flow and tourism revenue will exceed the level of the same period in 2019 and achieve steady growth. According to the data of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the national domestic tourism outing 13.5 billion passengers, an increase of 155% year-on-year, and an increase of 9% compared to the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis4%；Achieved domestic tourism revenue of 797300 million yuan, an increase of 201% year-on-year, and an increase of 5% over the same period in 20196%。
From the perspective of ticketing data, the "2024 Spring Festival Tourism Market** Report" released by Ctrip shows that as of now, orders for domestic, outbound and inbound travel during the Spring Festival holiday have increased significantly. The "north-south exchange" of ice and snow tours in the north and hot springs in the south is a popular domestic tour, and travel orders during the Spring Festival increased by more than 7 times year-on-year; Outbound travel and inbound travel orders increased by more than 10 times year-on-year.
Looking forward to 2024, we believe that low customer unit value will focus more on cost performance, and high-end products will focus on service consumption and experience consumption upgrades. Judging from the overall performance of the social service sector this year, the catering revenue in the social zero data is strong; The occupancy rate of the hotel industry took the lead in starting, driving the average room rate to increase; The domestic mass tourism market is booming, and the number of tourists and income has returned to pre-pandemic levels; Outbound travel is lagging behind in terms of visas and the availability of international flights.
In the short term, the tourism market is expected to have a holiday effect, and the China Tourism Research Institute**, based on the leading data on the demand side, the accumulation of kinetic energy on the supply side and the positive signal on the policy side, the number of domestic tourism trips and domestic tourism revenue in 2024 are expected to exceed 6 billion and 600 million yuan respectively.
In the medium and long term, China's economic development is back on track, in the context of economic structural transformation, stabilizing domestic demand and promoting consumption is one of the important strategic guidelines of the country under the dual-cycle development pattern. Then, in the context of the return of industry fundamentals and the continuous improvement of prosperity, the tourism, hotel, aviation and other industries that suffered a double kill in valuation performance affected by the black swan event in the early stage will usher in a reversal, and are expected to usher in a Davis double-click moment of double growth in valuation performance.
Friends who are concerned about tourism-related investment opportunities can use the best travel ETF (562510), which tracks the CSI Tourism Theme Index (index**: 930633CSI) takes the CSI All-Share Index as a sample space, and selects listed companies** involved in scenic spots, travel agencies, hotels and other businesses as constituent stocks to reflect the overall performance of listed tourism companies and provide diversified investment targets for the market. At present, the market capitalization distribution of the constituent stocks of the CSI Tourism Theme Index is mainly above 100 billion yuan, and the market value range of less than 10 billion yuan and 30 billion to 50 billion yuan also accounts for a certain proportion. The constituent stocks of the CSI Tourism Theme Index have distinct industry attributes, focusing on tourism and leisure, aviation airports, hotels and catering-related industries, and the industry distribution is mainly concentrated in the direction of aviation airports, tourist attractions, hotels and catering.
CSI Tourism Theme Index Industry Layout:
Data**: Wind Shenwan Secondary Industry 20240124
Finally, back to our theme today, the large consumption sector, in fact, the economy has been in a state of weak recovery in 2023, with a moderate recovery in consumer demand and an improvement in the fundamentals of large consumption, but it has not ushered in a more obvious **. Looking ahead to 2024, will the big consumer sector be revitalized?
The performance of the consumer sector is closely related to economic growth and household income.
First of all, from a fundamental point of view, in 2023, the overall trend of the ** consumer sector is closely related to economic growth expectations. Looking back on 2023, the domestic economy recovered rapidly in the first quarter; After that, the economic growth slowed down in the second quarter due to the large drag on the real estate market and the slower-than-expected export growth rate; In the third quarter, in the context of the continuous introduction of stable growth policies such as RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and real estate optimization, it is expected to improve significantly, but the fundamentals have not yet seen an inflection point. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, trillions of treasury bonds briefly boosted market sentiment, but due to the economic off-season at the end of the year and the policy window, the weak fundamentals dominated the index adjustment trend.
Then, from the perspective of index valuation, the large consumption sector, as one of the important main lines of the market from 2019 to 2020, has also risen in valuation after two consecutive years of **, reaching a relatively high historical high. Although the valuation of the consumer sector has been better digested due to continuous adjustments since 2021, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI Consumer Index has also increased from a high of 67About 7 times fell back to the current 2456 times, which is still at 14At the 26% percentile, valuations are already relatively low.
Looking back on history, although the consumer sector has experienced many times, it often ushers in a larger ** after a phased retreat, and the short-term "darkest moment" may only be a small wave in the historical process. In terms of the extended cycle, as of 2024-1-24, the mainland consumer index has accumulated **1450% since the base day (2004-12-31), significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1,000 percentage points over the same period, achieving a bright long-term return. Due to the prominent competitive barriers of leading consumer companies, the relatively stable industry pattern, and the stable long-term profitability, it is a better time for medium and long-term layout.
CSI Consumer Index P/E Ratio (PE-TTM).
Finally, from the market environment in 2024. The macroeconomic recovery trend is expected to remain moderate in '24. In the context of the lack of real estate, the domestic economic recovery is a tortuous process, but the short-term economic weakness does not mean that the economy bottoms out again, but looks for a post-epidemic growth center. Recently, the gradual use of trillions of national bonds and the resumption of PSL to support the three major projects will help promote the economic recovery trend in the first quarter. Although investors may be more pessimistic about the medium and long-term economic growth center, this has been well reflected in the extremely low valuation level of the broad-based economy, so it is very cost-effective for us to carry out the medium and long-term layout in this position. At the same time, because the macro economy has not seen signs of significant improvement, investors are expected to be weak, so they should pay attention to the pace of investment, fixed investment in batches, and spare money management.