Chief Economist Xu Gao's views are worth paying attention to. The real estate market is an important part of China's economy, and the development trend of housing prices is directly related to people's livelihood and the national economy and people's livelihood. Xu Gao believes that in the short term, the real estate market is facing the status quo of oversupply, which is mainly due to the dual pressure of the demand side and the supply side. On the supply side, the increase in the credit risk of real estate developers has suppressed the demand for home purchases, and many off-plan houses in the market cannot be timely, resulting in an increase in the area of completed housing and further exacerbating the pressure on supply. On the demand side, people's confidence is low, and the tightening of real estate financing policies has led to a sharp decline in the area of new housing starts.
However, while looking at the current downturn in the real estate market, Xu Gao also offered some optimistic views. He pointed out that if the policy can be adjusted in time, so that the market can return to normal, and restore the people's confidence in the delivery of developers, the contradiction between supply and demand will be easily solved. Xu Gao also emphasized the importance of the area of new housing starts, saying that this is an important indicator, and the current data shows that the area of new housing starts is declining rapidly. He expects China to experience the worst supply contraction since the 90s, which will lead to housing prices** becoming a high probability event, especially in first- and second-tier cities.
The launch of the "Economists' Suggestions for 2024 Chinese Economy" series of interview programs provides a platform for everyone to understand China's economic development and pay attention to major economic issues. By inviting the opinions and suggestions of domestic and foreign economists, we can have a better insight into the future trend of China's economy, help enterprises avoid risks, and formulate more reasonable and effective policy measures. I hope that in the next interview, we can hear more in-depth analysis and suggestions from economists to jointly promote the high-quality development of China's economy.