39000！Finally break the peak of 1989 and say goodbye to "lost for 30 years"? The Bank of Japan may become a drag oil bottle
Under the pressure of various unfavorable economic data, the Nikkei 225 index fell sharply**, eventually falling to more than 39,000 points, surpassing its all-time high of 38,957 at the end of 198944 points.
A new historical record was born.
On December 29, 1989, Japan** hit an all-time high, but then it continued**. 34 years have passed when ** breaks through the year's high again, which is also known as Japan's"The lost 30 years"。
On the other hand, the national ** also reached an all-time high of 6,124 points in 2007, and this was 16 years ago.
But now, the Shanghai Composite Index is struggling to return to 3000 points, and to break through 6124 points in the future, it will have to rise by more than 100%. Hopefully, it won't take us 30 years to get back to all-time highs.
Does Japan's breaking through the all-time high of the year mean that the Japanese economy has finally emerged from a 30-year loss?
Judging by the inflation data, Japan is finally out of deflation. However, the Bank of Japan did not raise interest rates for the time being, fearing that inflation data would decline as quickly as in Europe and the United States, in the hope of consolidating inflation.
However, for now, all sectors are ** the Bank of Japan should start raising interest rates in April this year.
If Japan starts raising interest rates, it will be positive for the yen in the first place.
The yen/dollar exchange rate has now fallen below 150 and is up 6 this year6%。In this way, the Nikkei 225 index has **163%, but this only makes sense for domestic investors.
For foreign investors who invest in Japan** from the yen to the yen, the profit is 16After 3%, the exchange rate loss must be deducted, so the actual gain is significantly reduced.
If the yen raises interest rates at the same time that the yuan begins to lower interest rates, the yen exchange rate is expected to rise sharply. For foreign investors, in addition to the gains brought by ***, the rise in exchange rates will also bring benefits. Japan**'s attractiveness to foreign investors is likely to continue to grow.
However, there are pros and cons. From the experience of some countries, when interest rates start to rise, in addition to curbing inflation and pushing up the exchange rate, there is also a counterproductive effect, that is, a blow to the capital market, **will be rapid**.
A not-so-distant example is the United States, where the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022, and the three major US stock indexes have seen a significant increase during 2022, with the Nasdaq even gaining more than 33%.
If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates and Japan**, which has just hit a new high, starts to retreat from its all-time highs, the decline could be even more brutal.
In addition, Japan's economic fundamentals are not good, with successive declines in GDP in the third and fourth quarters of last year plunging the Japanese economy into a real recession, and Japan has lost its status as the world's third-largest economy.
From this point of view, the risk of Japan** is increasing.
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