Author |Luo QianboProduced by |Bogotá looks at the property market
Recently, Bogo's look at the property market has noticed:
On February 4, according to the Qichacha APP, Gansu Asset Management applied to the court for pre-litigation property preservation, requesting to freeze the bank deposits of 25 million yuan or other assets of corresponding value in Lanzhou Wanda Mao Investment and Dalian Wanda Group.
In addition, according to the Southern *** February 1 ** Dao:
On February 1, Tianyancha APP showed that recently, Wanda Real Estate's Yuhuan Wanda Real Estate added a new tax arrears announcement, with a balance of more than 61.45 million yuan, and the tax arrears are enterprise income tax. The company was established in March 2020, the legal representative is Liu Guangmin, the registered capital is 40 million yuan, and it is wholly owned by Wanda Real Estate Group. ”
Wait a minute. Brief Analysis:
From 2023 to the present, according to Bogo's observation of the property market, trends, industries and markets, etc., there are many lightning and thunder, wind and frost swords and big waves of sand, etc., in the real estate industry, Wanda and Wang Jianlin, like many peers, dye clothes at night with frost to effectively avoid the invasion of the heavy wind and rain of the times, and strive to see the red light rising in the industry tomorrow.
At the very least, you have to run faster and more steadily than others to have a future.
In the past year, Wanda and Boss Wang, like a small boat in the big waves of the times, almost died on the beach - Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management's four IPOs failed + 38 billion yuan to go public, etc., basically hollowed out Wang Jianlin's spirit, even if he went to Luoyang White Horse Temple to be consecrated by the master, it was difficult to remove the trace of black gas in his seal hall.
The sale of Wanda Film's equity, the handing over 60% of Zhuhai Wanda's equity to PAG, etc., the sale of 10 Wanda Plaza, which can lay golden eggs, and the withdrawal from the Wanda Plaza project of Foshan Midea, all indicate that 2023 will be an unfavorable year for Wanda and Boss Wang.
In addition, the above two typical news fully show that after a series of sales and sales last year, Wanda has solved some of the more urgent and major problems, and has kept its basic plate and has not become the white bone under the pressure of the wind and snow of the times.
And took a big breath.
However, the aforementionedLanzhou Wanda Mao Bank's deposit of 25 million yuan was frozenwithYuhuan Wanda Real Estate owes more than 61.45 million yuan in corporate income taxAlthough it is a special event of debt tax of subsidiaries in different regions, it can be seen that Wanda will focus on solving major debt issues in 2023, and there is no time to worry about the debt tax and other issues of regional subsidiaries.
Let's be violent first, Wanda and Wang Jianlin are powerless.
On these "little thunders", they can only lie flat, there is no way, there is nothing they can help.
In lifting"Large thunder".After the alarm, why are there still some before the Spring Festival"Small mines".Keep bursting out?
According to Bogo's exclusive observation of the property market, there are two main points, as follows:
First, the fundamentals are unstable, and all kinds of debts are still deeply intertwined
It is reported that Wanda's debt pressure can be seen in the 2023 interim report of Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Company Bonds.
The report disclosed that as of the end of June 2023, Dalian Commercial Management's consolidated interest-bearing liabilities were 1,4128.3 billion yuan, of which it is worth noting that the interest-bearing liabilities due within one year amounted to 2925.7 billion yuan.
According to Dalian Wanda Commercial Management's 2023 semi-annual report, as of the end of June 2023, its closing cash and cash equivalent balance was about 146$9.2 billion; There is clearly short-term debt service pressure.
In addition, according to the Financial Associated Press on October 26 last year, **
According to the 2023 Hurun Report released by the Hurun Research Institute on October 24, among the richest people on the list who have fallen the most this year include Wanda's Wang Jianlin family, whose wealth has fallen by about 53 billion yuan.
In terms of liabilities, the total current liabilities of Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management in 2022 will be 155$8.6 billion; Net current liabilities were 17600 million yuan; The debt-to-asset ratio was 684%, up from 70 in 20219% down 25 percentage points. ”
On December 8, there was a ** report that said:
Up to now, Wanda Commercial Management has a total of 9 domestic bonds, with a balance of about 6.9 billion, of which the balance of domestic bonds due within one year is 1.8 billion. The longest remaining maturity is to be paid in 2026.
There are 3 offshore US dollar bonds with a total balance of US$1.3 billion, and the issuers are subsidiaries of Wanda Commercial Management (Wanda Property International and Wanda Property Global). One of the $600 million bonds, which was due in January next year, was recently rolled over. The remaining two payments also need to be paid within a year or two. ”
As above, on the whole, Wanda Group's comprehensive debt pressure is still relatively large, and the main financial indicators, total debts, short- and medium-term debt repayment pressure, broken arms and contractions of related business sectors, and overseas debts have deeply touched Wanda's basic market, so under many constraints, Wanda and Wang Jianlin want to have a good year, which is basically impossible.
Why, the above-mentioned project class "small mines" continue to burst out?
In Bogo's view, even its basic plate is already in an objective situation of taking care of the head and losing the tail.
It's not that I don't want to, it's that I can't do it at all.
Second, the core background is still there, and some creditors are eager to ignite guns, hoping to become the main payer of regional or project categories
The above two typical cases, why do you want to "light guns" before the Spring Festival?
Don't give Lao Wang face at all, why is this?
It's a state where I can't bear it anymore.
The debt tax issue of 25 million + 61.45 million, less than 90 million yuan, is not a big deal for such a large plate as Wanda Group.
However, why do these units keep breaking the news?
Maybe it's the pressure of different local regional finances, or the pressure of departmental assessment, or Wanda's government-enterprise relationship in some regional markets is not in place, otherwise, the Chinese New Year is coming soon, everyone will save face for each other, and all problems will wait until the eighth day of the new year to talk about it.
Tens of millions of cases were ruthlessly shaken out before the holiday, and there was a bit of a posture of tearing each other's faces.
Lao Wang must also be full of heart; It is impossible not to respond, and visiting the pier and inviting to eat will be a major work schedule before the holiday.
Therefore, before the Spring Festival, the 70-year-old Wang had to go around in person to fight fires in order to appease a group of "small mines", otherwise, after the holiday, these small thunders may become big thunder, which will disrupt his overall plan, and the gains outweigh the losses.
It is foreseeable that in 2024, the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon, Wang Jianlin's year will be relatively fragmented.
Therefore, many friends in the industry said - Wang Jianlin, it's still a fart year.
In view of the above many facts, Bogo's analysis believes that due to the different small thunders in each region, just like the small firecrackers that children play with during the Spring Festival, it is impossible to figure out whether they will explode in the **, under the high probability of the relevant debt pressure, before the Chinese New Year's Eve, I don't know if there are other debt situations similar to the "black boss" that ignites and explodes like firecrackers.
Write at the end:
Throughout the changes between Wanda and Wang Jianlin in the past year or so, in order to get a 38 billion yuan gambling agreement, Boss Wang has used his might, and has boiled himself into a dilemma of cutting bones and flesh, adding white to his temples and hanging from each other.
At this point, for some of Wang Jianlin's situation, Bo Ge looks at the property market and feels that the reality of Wanda and Wang Jianlin is very similar to the picture described in the poem "Butterfly Loves Flowers, Leaning on the Dangerous Building" by Liu Yong in the Song Dynasty:
Leaning on the dangerous building, the wind is fine, looking at the extreme spring sorrow, and the sky is gloomy. In the afterglow of the grass-colored smoke, there is no one who will rely on his will.
I plan to get drunk with a crazy picture, and I sing about wine, and I have no taste for it. The belt gradually widened and did not regret it, and it made people haggard for Yi.
I don't know if you, at this moment, can you have some understanding, and resonate with Bogotá to the concept?
In the past, some friends felt that Bo Ge was borrowing ancient poems to pretend to b, but in fact, every observation or judgment of Bo Ge is an expression of the current phenomenon and objective overall and thinking, which is the unique perspective of Bo Ge looking at the two major platforms of the real estate market and Ruicheng Research Institute, which is very different from others, and will never go to the crowd and kneel and lick others, and has always adhered to the independent spirit of Huxiang wisdom as the core.
For more than 3,000 years, under the Yuelu Mountain and the surging Xiangjiang River, there is our own unique spiritual wisdom.
Thus, from this point of view:
Today's article is interpreted from a perspective that is different from others, that is, a realistic and objective thinking and practical observation under Huxiang Thought and the independent thinking of the Bogot team.
Here, Bogotá said a few words, but in fact, there are more and deeper thoughts on the above-mentioned Wanda incident.
If you understand, you will understand, and you can't force anything else, that's all.
Things are like appearances, they are all outside;
Wanda and Wang Jianlin and all other changes, under the thunder and pure yang objective qi, cannot escape the constraints of relevant laws.
The small can see the big, and there is cause and effect on the surface.
In a word:
For Wanda and Wang Jianlin, can they celebrate the New Year and in what mood?
3,000 words are omitted here, and you can analyze and figure out one or two by yourself.
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