How to objectively evaluate the current real estate market? I would like to say that we should not be in a hurry, the current real estate market is still in the process of adjustment, and it is necessary to see both the lack of demand and the potential for the future. You can't be blindly optimistic, and don't be overly pessimistic, everything is in the law.
Now the most unpeaceful is our mentality, there are still many people who have not come out of the concept of the past era of high real estate growth, and some people think that real estate is out of play, both views are more extreme. Judging from the country's determination and strength to stabilize the real estate market, it is the general trend to gradually improve.
As I said, the current real estate market is far from the stage where it can be said to be recovering, but if you have to find some reasons to boost market confidence, there have been some more positive signals recently, of course, you can also ignore them, after all, it is only a signal, and it is a local reaction at best. At least I don't have that much confidence now, just a synthesis of the data of major institutions.
If you want to look at it, look at whether there are new changes in market supply and demand, market expectations and policy implementation.
According to the data of the China Index, the top 100 real estate companies in terms of land acquisition amount in January were about 85.6 billion yuan, an increase of 44% year-on-year8%γ
Of course, there are reasons behind this, one is that the base was low last year, and the other is that 22 cities have successively "canceled the land price limit", which has driven the land heat in key cities and regions to rebound, and the willingness of developers to take land has also recovered.
Nowadays, the land market is also seriously differentiated, and the popularity of high-quality land plots in core cities is relatively high, which can also drive the average premium rate to rebound significantly. Many cities are still sluggish, and land plots are generally sold at the reserve price.
It can only be said that we need to continue to observe, and if the popularity of high-quality land plots in core cities continues, then it can lead the entire market to improve. Developers' confidence and homebuyers' confidence interact with each other.
58 data shows that more than eighty percent of the intended people choose to see and buy houses during the Spring Festival, of which 371% of the population has a clear intention to buy a house during the Spring Festival. Among intending buyers, more than seven ** groups hope to buy a house within 2 years.
There are 573% of prospective homebuyers say the home** is relatively suitable and acceptable. This was a bit of a surprise to me personally, but it seems that I underestimated everyone's strength. However, the questionnaire is never an absolute response to the real situation, but it is for informational purposes only. But to tell the truth, during the Spring Festival, developers will use this time period to do a good job of ** activities, which is still attractive to some buyers.
If you want to make buyers really buy a house confidence expectation, you have to be optimistic about the future economy and income expectations, the economic upturn can drive everyone's confidence, and in the end, it is your future income expectations or wallet that determine whether you have the confidence to buy a house.
In addition, E-House's "2023 National 100 Cities Inventory Annual Report" shows that in 2023, the area of new housing in 100 cities across the country will be 291.12 million square meters, the transaction area will be 316.52 million square meters, and the supply-demand ratio will be 1:11γIt means that the normal state of "oversupply" in the past five years, that is, from 2018 to 2022, is reversing, which is of great significance.
If it is true, then there is a possibility that the environment for destocking will improve, believe it or not, and leave it to the buyers to think for themselves.
Zhuge data shows that in January 2024, 95,440 second-hand residential units were traded in 14 key cities, a month-on-month increase98%, up 62 percent year-on-year39%γ
The ring is still very weak, if you have to be a good signal, it should be a chat. At present, under the new policy, there are more house viewings, but it is still difficult to say the transaction situation.
Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has stated that it will fully give urban real estate regulation and control autonomy, and cities can adjust real estate policies according to local conditions. This means that all localities can adjust the current real estate policies more independently according to the actual local situation, and all localities will carry out innovative skills that show their own magic across the sea.
It is undeniable that soon, first- and second-tier cities such as Guangzhou, Suzhou, and Shanghai have responded positively, and even some new policies have been released that exceed expectations. It is believed that a new round of property market relaxation will be staged in various places next.
Whether it is policy support for real estate companies or home buyers, I think in the end, the benefits have to fall on home buyers, which is the real support. Especially when it comes to lowering the threshold and cost of buying a home, they are the ultimate payers. Only by giving them more benefits can they have the confidence and ability to participate.
New Year's Creation Incentive Program